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Suspicious random number behavior

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 11 years ago by powerplayer.

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Englewood, Colorado
United States
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July 25, 2005
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Posted: August 26, 2005, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

I live in Colorado and  play the Cash 5 game daily which is a 5/32 format with a $20,000 jackpot. Drawings are done by computer.

The past 3 days the numbers 1, 7 and 27 have repeated and the number 22 has repeated twice. Doesn't seem random to me though it is possible. I've e-mailed the Colorado Lottery for their comments.

I'd like to get feedback from some Lottery Post members as to their thoughts.

 

Thanks,

 

Len 

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: August 26, 2005, 2:01 pm - IP Logged

    In the last 277 drawings of the Ohio Rolling Cash5 (5/39) these are the counts of matches for numbers from the previous drawing:

     MATCH  0 = 123
     MATCH  1 = 125
     MATCH  2 = 23
     MATCH  3 = 4       
     MATCH  4 = 1      (12/14/04)
     MATCH  5 = 0

    Since a match 2 pays $1, 3 pays $10 and 4 pays $300, if the 5 winning numbers from the previous day had been played every day, it would have cost $277 and paid $363 for a profit of $86.  Numbers do repeat quite often and some day when all 5 numbers repeat back to back, I'm going to be sorry I wasn't taking advantage of this free money system to win part of $100,000+ (the jackpot).

    RJOh

    P.S.  Ohio use air and balls to select its numbers.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      Greenwich, CT
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      Posted: August 26, 2005, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

      I think it's within the realm of random...just don't expect those three numbers again tonight.  $20,000 jackpot for odds of over 200,000 to 1?  You Coloradoans gotta fight for more.

        psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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        May 30, 2004
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        Posted: September 11, 2005, 11:37 am - IP Logged

        I live in Colorado and  play the Cash 5 game daily which is a 5/32 format with a $20,000 jackpot. Drawings are done by computer.

        The past 3 days the numbers 1, 7 and 27 have repeated and the number 22 has repeated twice. Doesn't seem random to me though it is possible. I've e-mailed the Colorado Lottery for their comments.

        I'd like to get feedback from some Lottery Post members as to their thoughts.

         

        Thanks,

         

        Len 

        lmatlaw......don't know much about your 5/32....but at least you sent an......

        e-mail, hope you get a reply of somekind from the commission?????????????

        Lotto South......seems interesting now with tons of consective pairss and

        tripletss  in Aug. & Sept. (22, 23) (41,42..44,45) (33,34) (13,14)???????????

        and (41,42,43) (36,37,38) and another (36,37,38)......on Sept. 9th????????

        No wonder this jackpot gets knocked-off...............but wonder if the winners

        are using software to pick or just guessing birthbays.......to win. Dozz snott look like a QP game, so I have not played this......great  little game????????

        "Follow the bouncing BALLs" in LS or wet on the balls before the auditor or  the inspector gets back from the bathroom??? Them balls don't "L@@K" to random to me<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

        LOL

        PSYKOMO 

          Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
          Wisconsin
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          March 27, 2003
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          Posted: September 11, 2005, 12:11 pm - IP Logged

          I live in Colorado and  play the Cash 5 game daily which is a 5/32 format with a $20,000 jackpot. Drawings are done by computer.

          The past 3 days the numbers 1, 7 and 27 have repeated and the number 22 has repeated twice. Doesn't seem random to me though it is possible. I've e-mailed the Colorado Lottery for their comments.

          I'd like to get feedback from some Lottery Post members as to their thoughts.

           

          Thanks,

           

          Len 

          We have a 5/31 game....I only play it when the jackpot gets to around six figures, but I keep a database of all the draws anyway.

          It isn't unusual to see a specific number repeat as many as four days in a row in the game.  It is computer-generated, supposedly a RNG.  But they will tell you that this IS an example of RANDOM. In other words, you can filter all you want.....but ANYTHING can happen because it's random.

          ============

          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

          Answer: His lips are moving.

            NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
            Harrogate
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            Posted: September 11, 2005, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

            It would be interesting to hear what kind of algorithm their RNG uses. Even the best RNGs only generate pseudo-random numbers (i.e. the numbers begin to repeat eventually), although over the length of their period (the span of numbers before repetition sets in) they do pass stringent statistical tests for randomness.

            You might think "ah-ha! If I knew which algorithm they use I can predict the numbers!" Sorry, but you'd have to know which seed they use too (the seed is an initial number fed into the RNG to start it off), and the seed value will be different for every draw anyway.

            No harm in asking them, though...

            "God is subtle but He is not malicious." - Albert Einstein

            "In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Alec Guinness, Star Wars Episode IV

              paurths's avatar - underground
              Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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              Posted: September 11, 2005, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

              It would be interesting to hear what kind of algorithm their RNG uses. Even the best RNGs only generate pseudo-random numbers (i.e. the numbers begin to repeat eventually), although over the length of their period (the span of numbers before repetition sets in) they do pass stringent statistical tests for randomness.

              You might think "ah-ha! If I knew which algorithm they use I can predict the numbers!" Sorry, but you'd have to know which seed they use too (the seed is an initial number fed into the RNG to start it off), and the seed value will be different for every draw anyway.

              No harm in asking them, though...

              There is one "little" thing lots of people seem to forget...
              And this goes for ballmachines and RNG's: one can only come "this close" to predicting the numbers for the next draw.
              That's all very nice, but in fact no one really knows what the last draw was.
              Even if one would know the seed for the RNG, it is useless unless you exactly, beyond any doubt, know what the last draw was.

              If your lottery test-draws the machine/RNG, in between two official draws, without the public knowing, well... you don't stand a chance...

              In fact, come to think of it, that just might be happening, if not for real testpurpose, then it just comes in handy to put the "analysts" (like so very very many of us) on a sidetrack...
              Think about it...

                NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                Harrogate
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                Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

                Machines are tested regularly, but since the general public never gets to know the test results we just have to factor them out of any predictions. Analyses can only ever be based on what's knowable so test results are irrelevant.

                I look at it this way: the two sets of numbers form separate 'trajectories'. The one that is made public is the only one that is of interest anyway, being the one all those millions of dollars/pounds/whatever are riding on.

                "God is subtle but He is not malicious." - Albert Einstein

                "In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Alec Guinness, Star Wars Episode IV

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

                  Over time the public drawings should be as random as all the drawings public and private and if there was a predictable pattern, it would be in the public drawings too.  It just that you have less data to work with.  The idea of the private drawings is to identify any such behavior and eliminate it before having a public drawing.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    paurths's avatar - underground
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                    Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:16 pm - IP Logged

                    Machines are tested regularly, but since the general public never gets to know the test results we just have to factor them out of any predictions. Analyses can only ever be based on what's knowable so test results are irrelevant.

                    I look at it this way: the two sets of numbers form separate 'trajectories'. The one that is made public is the only one that is of interest anyway, being the one all those millions of dollars/pounds/whatever are riding on.

                    Ofcourse analyses can only be based on what is known, but here's an example.

                    Casinotime, we will be playing roulette;
                    Nemesys enters a casino and watches a few roulette-tables. Suddenly he decides to play on table 3, b/c 5 times in a row a red number came out. He figures black has to come, hopefully, soon, if not the next play. Nemesys puts $50 on black.
                    The wheel turns, red comes up.
                    "No problem," Nemesys thinks to himself and he puts in $100 on black.
                    And again red comes out.
                    "Okay, lets play $200"

                    If Nemesys always doubles the money he puts in he will eventually win and gain a profit of his first bet, being $50.
                    (this is only when the house has no restrictions on the size of bets and that Nemesys ofcourse has enough money in his pocket to cover his "behind".

                    Suddenly, as Nemesys wants to put in $400, the manager of the casino tells everybody to leave the casino for just 2 minutes, b/c they will be testing all the roulette-tables.
                    So after 2 minutes Nemesys re-enters the room and asks to himself what he should do; place the $400 bet or not?

                    What do you think, Nemesys, what will you do?
                    And, the most important, b/c the anser is obvious, why will you do what you do?

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

                      I never believed in that doubling up system no matter what game you're playing. The odds are always in the house favor.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        paurths's avatar - underground
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                        Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:40 pm - IP Logged

                        I never believed in that doubling up system no matter what game you're playing. The odds are always in the house favor.

                        As long as there is no maximum bet-size and there's enough money in your pocket it is a win-situation, in the end. (in the example, each time the ball 'picks out' a red number the odds rise in your favor, that's a statistical (probability) fact, no hocus-pocus)

                        But the question was, would Nemesys still place the bet after everyone had to leave the casino b/c the tables had to be tested? (and ofcourse, the results of the test would remain hush-hush...)

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                          A gambler with no limits has a gambling problem and too much money to waste.  The casino always have betting limits to protect itself, so doubling up is a gamble with the odds in the house's favor even if the betting was continuous.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                            Harrogate
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                            Posted: September 11, 2005, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

                            If the casino is honest, the test won't affect the wheel (how would a test affect the wheel anyway?) I'd still bet. RJOH is right about the martingale bet. It's been proved to be one of the quickest ways known to lose money. Of course, if I want to win at roulette I just strap on my portable prediction computer under my dinner jacket, ha ha! Guaranteed to give a 40% improvement over random chance (and maybe a few broken ribs if caught...)

                            "God is subtle but He is not malicious." - Albert Einstein

                            "In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Alec Guinness, Star Wars Episode IV

                              paurths's avatar - underground
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                              Posted: September 11, 2005, 6:26 pm - IP Logged

                              In the example i pointed to the fact that there must be no limits on bets, so that issue can not interfere with the potential solution to the question. (ofcourse the house protects itself, they would be pretty stupid not to do so...)

                              Well, nemesys, the sequence was interrupted by the test and you will never know whether your odds just dropped to 1 in 2 again.
                              Everyone knows the example with the coin. If you would throw it up just once in your lifetime, then you would have 50% chance. If it would be thrown up in a sequence, each time it flipped to the side that makes you lose, your odds grow in you favor. (that is, if you keep betting on the same side over and over again)

                              Nature's goal is, achieve, symmetry. Things want to be in balance. (at least, thats my idea of it Wink) After a 0 "it wants" a 1. If thousand following zero's occur there's something very wrong. (or we jumped into the future several billions of years)
                              At any lottery game, e.g. 6/42, the overall statistics, concerning partitioning of numbers, will result in 2 numbers lower than (about) 17, 2 numbers floating around 21 and 2 numbers above 25. (17 & 25 might fluctuate, and i shake them out my hat right now, but i trust you get the picture)
                              Over a shorter period there will be a deviation, going up, then going down. But it will, in the end, always partition around 21. (unless the lottery would go on for a couple of billions years, then entropy will take the upper hand and the most weird scenario's will happen. --> only if "we" find them "not weird" now ofcourse)