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Math odds..no digit return. How often ?

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 11 years ago by WIN D.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
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November 2, 2002
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Posted: September 23, 2005, 2:47 pm - IP Logged

 Math wise .....how often will we get a no digit return from the previous draw? Pick 3 and Pick 4.

 If you don't show your work I'll have to count the entire answer wrong. LOL

 Thanks

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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    November 2, 2002
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    Posted: September 23, 2005, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

    Well .....that hurt! Just spent 1 hour on a large post and it just went POOF!  Went to print and it would not print. Service unavailable

     Oh well.... had no idea it would be so large. Went through one at a time and marked each one of the wins for the last year. They were counted Wins if you always wheeled the 7 digits that did not play in the number the draw before. It was hard.

     Anyway.... ended up with 92 of them out of265 Six way numbers in the last 365 draws. During the year it looked like there were only 4 or so times where it would not work for extended period of time.  Extended means 6 to 10 draws where there were no wins. If someone else wants to copy and paste the list and bold in the hits ..... go for it. 

     So...  Of the times the 265 singles hit..... the 7 digit wheel hit 92 times or 35% real world playing single to single. Formula should be very close to that. 

     Anyone else want to go through each one of these and copy paste the wins for the 7 digit wheel ....JUMP in... LOL   

     

     906 504 973 342 476 086 107 109 039 271 062 643 340 854 937 261 850 497 218 421 812 105 196 082 071 234 074 417 381 427 641 325 621 897 573 102 027 942 804 198 271 954 054 986 829 530 750 271 762 416 142 018 963 507 290 740 312 748 207 691 531 492 145 409 682 940 728 678 856 306 693 905 308 089 973 690 489 837 104 571 451 750 795 780 693 972 468 084 329 584 467 736 825 908 178 753 230 674 108 345 632 396 796 856 038 389 294 892 572 247 850 710 628 916 089 147 721 706 805 402 940 751 168 375 592 548 314 748 561 834 146 046 064 418 753 385 913 290 154 625 091 763 163 621 105 917 379 840 258 603 721 940 324 591 654 582 467 258 037 570 532 976 483 280 156 519 645 493 143 586 796 467 351 340 182 903 574 950 651 928 974 832 690 986 961 457 981 146 641 543 834 408 745 173 267 926 370 516 179 946 741 471 534 516 825 518 904 534 825 629 902 679 920 358 908 874 736 514 583 129 048 158 298 497 072 413 916 203 470 972 296 048 583 578 913 926 250 132 796 298 815 468 052 408 506 145 209 018 703 915 052 967 571 710 738 314 973 324 431 407 926 097 572 527 401

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
      United States
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      November 2, 2002
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      Posted: September 23, 2005, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

       I guess ....bottom line so far ,,,for now... is this. The hit rate for a full 365 draw year including the doubles on this real world example ended up with 92 hits.

       That means without any regard to SKIPS OR DOUBLES during the year and playing every darn day like a robot..... regardless of the flow,,,, you would expect the 7 digit wheel to win..... around 1/4 th. the time. This is playing from single to single number. Always playing the wheel based on the (no show) digits in the last 6 way... not the doubles. Playing that wheel until the next single hit.

        So ...its almost like the doubles hit rate ...of about 27% or around 100 a yr. in a 365 game. You wouldn't play doubles everyday ofcourse....  you count the days between hits etc. etc.    Same thing here.

        Still no idea how to put it into a formula for Pick three....forget Pick 4.   

         This is good enough for gov. work..... for now. 

       

           

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d    

        johnph77's avatar - avatar
        CA
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        Posted: September 24, 2005, 12:19 am - IP Logged

        WIN D -

        The formula would have to be calculated on a 271/729 base, as any given number appears 271 times in all one thousand 3-number combinations. Fortunately for calculation purposes, 729 is the cube of 9.

        There'd be a million possibilities - one of a thousand numbers followed by another one of a thousand numbers. You'd have to include the doubles and triples in the building process.

        I'm a bit busy right now but if I get some spare time, sounds interesting.

        gl

        j

        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

         =^.^=

          Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
          Wisconsin
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          Posted: September 24, 2005, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

           Math wise .....how often will we get a no digit return from the previous draw? Pick 3 and Pick 4.

           If you don't show your work I'll have to count the entire answer wrong. LOL

           Thanks

          WIN D,

          Somewhere on LP in the past, I did a research for Pick 3 in a number of states as to how often they do get a one-digit return (just the opposite from what yo uask, but the math answer to what you want would be easy to calculate knowing when a digit does return) -- as I remember, a digit returns approximately (and consistently) about 47-48% of the time. Therefore, it is yet another of those 50/50 indicators....not much help. Half the time you'll be correct. Not good enough.

          ============

          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

          Answer: His lips are moving.

            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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            Posted: September 24, 2005, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

             But Badger..... doubles are even worse return rate of only 27% and people still play doubles.

              Anyway.... that question of how often a digit does return.... The thing that throws that off is the times it goes over board. The times2 digit return. That happens about every 9 draws on average and will mess up a person playing for a one digit return.

             It all comes down to the fact that one can't play any system every day but must look for a special set of circumstances before we pull the trigger. We have to aim. Although shooting from the hip is fun ...it will leave you twisting in the wind eventually...LOL   The best system will always end up as some form of running between the rain drops

             Anyway...real world is one thing. Thank Goodness for Johnph77 and his abilities to push out a formula on these. I can't wait. Thanks John.

             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              johnph77's avatar - avatar
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              Posted: September 28, 2005, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

              WIN D -

              This one was so easy once the method came to me I'm almost embarrassed to admit it. It wasn't done by formulas but rather by programming.

              Triples:

              As inferred by my previous post, if a triple is the first three-digit number, there are 729 possibilities that the next number drawn will not have a duplicate of the first draw. Note that 729 is the cube of 9.

              Doubles:

              I took the numbers 0 and 1 for an example. Of the 1,000 possible numbers, 488 have the numbers 0 and/or 1 in them, leaving 512 possibilities without duplication of any numbers in the first draw. Note that 512 is the cube of 8.

              All different:

              I took the numbers 0, 1 and 2 for an example. Of the 1,000 possible numbers, 657 have the numbers 0, 1 and/or 2 in them, leaving 343 possibilities without duplication of any numbers in the first draw. Note that 343 is the cube of 7.

              These are the only three possibilities of occurance in the Pick 3 game, and the percentage of possible non-duplication for each example is 72.9%, 51.2% and 34.3%, respectively.

              But if you're looking for the overall possibility of non-duplication regardless of what is contained in the first draw, this is the way it's worked out. There are 10 possible triples with 729 possibilities each for a total of 7,290 non-duplicative possibilities. There are 270 doubles with 512 possibilities each for a total of 138,240 non-duplicative possibilities. There are 720 three digit numbers where all three digits differ with 343 possibilites each for a total of 246,960 non-duplicative possibilities. Totaling these leaves 392,490 possibilities out of 1,000,000 total possibilities where a second draw will not contain any number in the in the first draw, a percentage of 39.249%.

              Hope this answers the question.

              gl

              John

              Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

              Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

               =^.^=

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                Posted: October 3, 2005, 10:40 am - IP Logged

                 Thank you John. Your special talents are appreciated here so very much. It will take some time for me to organize all the implications. There will be several.

                                    39.249  Always suspected ...but never confirmed without your help. It will be nice to build on a rock rather than sand for a change.

                 

                  This may be of interest to those that follow the Pick 4 game. The example that follows is from the Georgia midday game. This list contains just the single numbers ABCD. There were 167 singles during the last year. The ABCD numbers that did not contain any digits returning from the previous ABCD are noted in BOLD print below.

                 Of the 167 singles listed only 9 did not contain any digits from the previous 24 way number. It would seem this result could only be useful in the reverse. I did this with my glasses but ..... 

                  I am surprised at this example. I really expected a much higher figure. Finding the (real world) return rate on at least ONE digit shocked me. Looks like the formula will end up at 95% .  Almost like hunting triples in the Pick 3 game.... Very rare. It would be interesting to see the formula for at least a 2 digit return on ABCD's 

                  The main consideration this player takes away from this example is ..ofcourse  *** Always include at least one digit from the previous a- b- c -d number. Unless...you want to lose over 94.6% of the time.  or even better

                  " Always include at least one digit from the previous A-B-C-D number and you will be right 94.6 % of the time. "   

                       

                             8931 9806 5320 3985 2901 9362 3842 9586 6519 2035 7016 6158 8309 2897 7563 1856 8923 8524 9041 5264 7354 1426 5048 5173 6178 9837 3940 8576 1672 8452 5173 3714 1094 8916 0473 1468 8435 4291 2359 8531 0937 8651 3241 4961 5039 7564 0867 3967 8179 7850 3184 6031 2576 7216 2591 8120 4608 7918 2139 0653 8160 6931 8147 2693 6205 9132 4132 3097 8169 3206 2570 9412 4537 3751 2514 4296 9835 3805 7916 4053 9714 5694 2167 3174 6420 6503 6914 6208 7180 5012 4703 4528 4980 9820 5029 2073 6835 3092 2350 9125 0136 1740 2961 4031 9781 1832 6912 1064 6012 8301 3917 6208 9614 8031 8924 3759 5614 1906 8041 7381 7641 2458 8126 7126 0169 6319 9680 5802 0382 5429 0579 7138 1023 7529 9427 6937 7102 9725 2183 7629 0786 9857 3814 9037 1605 3742 1036 8374 1983 9302 8473 5941 3981 6235 8293 4810 3261 4516 2847 7621 6490 7853 6238 5716 0713 3894 3704

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

                  CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                  ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                  Posted: October 3, 2005, 11:26 am - IP Logged

                  WD,

                    Read the post started by CD. It shows some  stats from a couple of states.

                  Carbob

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: October 3, 2005, 12:27 pm - IP Logged

                     Math wise .....how often will we get a no digit return from the previous draw? Pick 3 and Pick 4.

                     If you don't show your work I'll have to count the entire answer wrong. LOL

                     Thanks

                    There are 1000 possible combinations of 3's. If you remove 3 numbers then there 343 possible combinations of 3's, so there would be 343/1000 odds that a combination coming up today would not have one of the numbers in the previous drawing if the previous drawing had 3 different numbers.

                    However if the last number was a double then there would 512 combinations of 3's that wouldn't contain those two numbers, so there would 512/1000 odds that a combination coming up today would not have one of the two numbers in the previous drawing.

                    However if the last number was a triple then there would 729 combinations of 3's that wouldn't contain that one number, so there would 729/1000 odds that a combination coming up today would not have the number in the previous drawing.

                    It all depends on the amount of different numbers in the last drawing.

                    Note:The pick4 is figured in a similar way

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                      Stone Mountain*Georgia
                      United States
                      Member #828
                      November 2, 2002
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                      Posted: October 3, 2005, 2:16 pm - IP Logged

                      Superb RJOH. Simple. Nicely done. 

                       Thank You                             

                       

                       

                      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                             Win d