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Lottery odds are not as bad as you think

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 11 years ago by paurths.

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Riverside, Ca
United States
Member #21722
September 14, 2005
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Posted: September 26, 2005, 2:20 am - IP Logged

ok if you play MM or your state lottery the odds of winning the jackpot are like 1:82,398,498 (i don't know the real number) but its a high one, anyways i was thinking the odds of hitting can't be that high, because think about this every time there is a draw the odds go down by one because once a combination of numbers is drawn then it will never come up again, what are the odds of a combination comming up 2 times ever? had it ever happend? so if you had the time you could find out all the combinations that have come up and the odds would not be as bad. it would still be high but not as high as they say

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    United States
    Member #21574
    September 11, 2005
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    Posted: September 26, 2005, 2:43 am - IP Logged

     

    life is a game ?

    I guess GOD makes the rules !!!!!!!!!

     

    Are YOU smart enough to take the Annuity ?

     


      United States
      Member #8747
      November 16, 2004
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      Posted: September 26, 2005, 9:50 am - IP Logged

      How does subtracting 100 combinations per year affect 82 million. To round the remaining odds up, you are still left with 82M combinations.

      The combinations do not come up again because the odds are too great for any combination drawn to match previous ones not surprising.

      The only advantage one has is that you stay away from combinations like - 1 2 3 4 5 - 6. (odd to great) Plus, because random numbers have no memory, it doesn't play fair or balanced. It is likely to repeat it's leading numbers aka hot numbers. But most important of all, LUCK.

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        Alabama
        United States
        Member #17830
        June 27, 2005
        309 Posts
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        Posted: September 26, 2005, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

        ok if you play MM or your state lottery the odds of winning the jackpot are like 1:82,398,498 (i don't know the real number) but its a high one, anyways i was thinking the odds of hitting can't be that high, because think about this every time there is a draw the odds go down by one because once a combination of numbers is drawn then it will never come up again, what are the odds of a combination comming up 2 times ever? had it ever happend? so if you had the time you could find out all the combinations that have come up and the odds would not be as bad. it would still be high but not as high as they say

        You might be interested in the excellent software written by Ion Saliu. Go to his web site www.saliu.com, scroll down and click on the link "winning lotto system or strategy" (www.saliu.com/LottoWin.htm).

        I would encourage you to download the free "MDIEditor and Lotto WE" software (www.saliu.com/infodown.html). Here's an excerpt from his "MDIEditor and Lotto WE User's Guide:"

        "If you spend the time to get to know and understand the principals within which this software operates, it will be time well spent. In fact it will be time far better spent than going down to your lottery outlet and asking for a 'quick pick' combination. It will also be time far better spent than 'relying' on your combination/s that you insist on playing each week.

        To exemplify this point, in a 6/49 lottery (the most common world wide) there are 13,983,816 possible combinations. For argument's sake let's round that up to 14 million. If, say, every combination were to come out just once, in random order, in 14 million draws, then at 2 draws per week (104 per year), it would take just under 135,000 years for ALL the combinations to come out..."

        If you download the software you can read more about the statistics in the "User Guide" (tutor.doc). There are also many more useful utilities on his web site.

        I would like to thank Ion Saliu for making his excellent lottery software available to us.

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          United States
          Member #1826
          July 11, 2003
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          Posted: September 26, 2005, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

          That is a very interesting observation. Unfortunately with 175,000,000 combinations, and about 500 draws, it doesn't help a whole lot.

          (insert signature here)


            United States
            Member #5565
            July 11, 2004
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            Posted: September 26, 2005, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

            If you think it will significantly improve your odds by assuming that winning sequences won't repeat, then your logical next step would be to look at 5-, 4-, and 3-ball sequences within winning draws and filter out picks which repeat these past winners.

              dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

              United States
              Member #2338
              September 17, 2003
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              Posted: September 26, 2005, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

              Any lottery has odds that are far worse than you think. Try playing roulette and see how often you win. Odds are only 1:37. Pick 3 is very difficult to win playing straight on one number. Odds 1:1000. It only gets worse from there. Odds are much better getting hit by lightning and at least if that was you goal you can just wave a large iron wire around on a golf course during a thunderstorm to increase your odds. Getting better odds from a lottery is just an excercise in futility.

                Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
                Atlantic Mine, Michigan
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                June 23, 2002
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                Posted: September 26, 2005, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                Getting better odds or applying principles to "write off" numbers is a way we use to improve our odds of winning.  We just use these techniques to lower the extreme odds that are running against us.  I mean I would definetly try to lower odds from almost 1 in 200 million to lower than most in house state games.  This helps us get a better edge and when you gamble that is the thing you are looking for.  Because the HOUSE ALWAYS WINS. 

                Brad

                  iam713's avatar - techno eye.jpg
                  Jonesboro,Ga
                  United States
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                  September 14, 2005
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                  Posted: September 26, 2005, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

                  Even though we think its not computerize it is because the systems goes through all the numbers to see how many times it has been pick and it will generate to pick the number that has only one winner. Odds is high,  but it will be one day your number will be the right pick quick pic or your own selection. Just beleive

                    BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                    Dump Water Florida
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                    June 5, 2002
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                    Posted: September 27, 2005, 1:25 am - IP Logged

                    By the time all the combinations have been drawn, there will have been many repeats.  It is only the small size of the sample that makes it look like combinations aren't drawn again.  The old Florida 5/26 game had about 11 jackpot combinations repeat over time.  Gail Howard software shows, pairs, triples, quads and quints, the idea of stripping out past three and four number combinations from your Pick-6 choices isn't a good idea.  The only way to lower odds is to play more numbers. Picking 9 numbers instead of 6 in a 6/49 game lowers the odds from one in 13.9 million to 1 in 166 thousand as I recall. BobP

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                      Louisville, KY
                      United States
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                      May 20, 2005
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                      Posted: September 27, 2005, 3:21 am - IP Logged

                      ok if you play MM or your state lottery the odds of winning the jackpot are like 1:82,398,498 (i don't know the real number) but its a high one, anyways i was thinking the odds of hitting can't be that high, because think about this every time there is a draw the odds go down by one because once a combination of numbers is drawn then it will never come up again, what are the odds of a combination comming up 2 times ever? had it ever happend? so if you had the time you could find out all the combinations that have come up and the odds would not be as bad. it would still be high but not as high as they say

                      If the drawings are RANDOM, then yes, they CAN repeat. Just because the odds of doing it are so high doesn't mean that they can't repeat. It just means there are so many millions of possible combinations that it is not likely for them to repeat.

                        paurths's avatar - underground
                        Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
                        Belgium
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                        July 29, 2005
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                        Posted: September 27, 2005, 3:58 am - IP Logged

                        By the time all the combinations have been drawn, there will have been many repeats.  It is only the small size of the sample that makes it look like combinations aren't drawn again.  The old Florida 5/26 game had about 11 jackpot combinations repeat over time.  Gail Howard software shows, pairs, triples, quads and quints, the idea of stripping out past three and four number combinations from your Pick-6 choices isn't a good idea.  The only way to lower odds is to play more numbers. Picking 9 numbers instead of 6 in a 6/49 game lowers the odds from one in 13.9 million to 1 in 166 thousand as I recall. BobP

                        Ofcourse combinations will start to repeat after some time.
                        If they wouldn't do that before all the combinations have come out, pick 3 & pick 4 would be extremely interesting games.
                        I don't know for American states, but in Belgian Pick3 the first repeater occured after, if i  remember correctly, 20 draws or so.
                        That's 1/50.
                        So perhaps in a 5/26 game, with 65780 possible combinations, repeaters occur after approx. 1200 draws or so...

                        In a 6/49 game repeaters will start to fall after approx. 270 000 draws.

                        This could be less than the example, and probably can be calculated.