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Maddog's Powerball Challenge 10/1/05

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 11 years ago by JAG331.

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New Mexico
United States
Member #12305
March 10, 2005
2984 Posts
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Posted: October 2, 2005, 11:27 am - IP Logged
Simply amazing! I could hit NONE of the winning numbers in each of the previous 3 MD PB Challenges (9/24, 9/28, and 10/1).

If I had bought all possible 15,015 combos out of such (15+5)sets, I would have lost $15,015, anyway. Other participants' look not so unlike. This drawing alone, all possible combos out of 11 participants would have costed $165,165, but, at a glance, $0 winnings.

What would have happened if my $15,015 had been split in each of 357 baskets of single WBs but with each of all 42 RED Powerballs? I would have had guaranteed winnings of $1,071 instead of $0.

How about all participants together? All possible combos would have costed $165,165 but with $0 winnings. But, if the money, $165,165, had been split in 3,933 such baskets, guaranteed winnings would have been $11,781, instead of $0.

Interestingly, 9/28($3 winnings) and 9/24($0 winnings) drawings had extremely similar results.

I just realize that Guaranteed Winning Strategy might be indeed better for the following two facts:
  1) it has the same expected value as any random or own-considerate selections,
  2) and, further, it guarantees a certain minimum amount of winnings, while random or one's own considerate selections do not, or can not.

Frankly, so far I have failed to think of the above reasoning.

Is there anything wrong with above reasoning, other than the matter-of-too-much-money to be invested? (I think this might lead to an issue related to possibly the superiority, indifference, or inferiority of a POOLed guaranteed winning strategy)

 

Anon:

Not too many months ago a guy on one of the Lottery Systems threads made a lot better job of it.  He made the claim that he could predict the numbers that would hit on MM.  Naturally, there was more than the necessary doubt from all quarters.  He was challenged to do it.

As I recall, he posted 20 numbers several hours before one of the draws, plus one or several red ball choices.

He got 4+1 that night.

Evidently, he was pestered to death by people wanting him to tell how he did it, and some opportunists from another site began trying to ride his success.  The interest and excitement died away and seems forgotten.  So far as I know he's out there somewhere in the world winning enough money to impress himself, so he doesn't revisit LP.

But that was a bright moment worth reminding ourselves of, occasionally, when things seem hopeless.  A guy announcing he has a system that works, announcing what numbers will hit a few hours later, and those numbers, five of them, hitting.

Maybe, as some sneered, it was an accident he couldn't repeat.  But there's another, brighter possibility.  Maybe the guy was onto something we all want and just haven't found yet.  He was long on cryptic remarks...."History always repeats itself."  "Keep it simple."  But it seemed to have something to do with column hits and history.

He was doing it all by hand.  Didn't even use a spreadsheet.  Wondered, in his remarks, whether software could do it easier.  I'm not any great shakes with comps, but he PMed me asking me some questions about how spreadsheets work.

I'll keep looking, turning over every rock until I convince myself that announcement and draw were just the coincidence coordinators playing a trick.

Jack

 

 

Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

It's about number behavior.

Egos don't count.

 

Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

 


    United States
    Member #16612
    June 2, 2005
    3493 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: October 2, 2005, 11:35 am - IP Logged

    Jackpot has rolled over to 180 million. The winning numbers are 8, 18, 38, 45, 54, and PB 23.

    Players with 2+0 and the winners of this round: nanmaxsplace [8, 38], Delores247 [8, 54], The GameGrl [38, 45], MADDOG10 [18, 38], and JAG331 [8, 18]

    Others with 1+0: bks2 [38], thousandair [54], Rip Snorter [45], RJOh [45], and Just6ntlc [8]

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      Greenwich, CT
      United States
      Member #4793
      May 24, 2004
      1822 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: October 2, 2005, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

      Just6ntlc, thanks for doing the updates.

        Avatar
        Greenwich, CT
        United States
        Member #4793
        May 24, 2004
        1822 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 2, 2005, 12:44 pm - IP Logged
        Simply amazing! I could hit NONE of the winning numbers in each of the previous 3 MD PB Challenges (9/24, 9/28, and 10/1).

        If I had bought all possible 15,015 combos out of such (15+5)sets, I would have lost $15,015, anyway. Other participants' look not so unlike. This drawing alone, all possible combos out of 11 participants would have costed $165,165, but, at a glance, $0 winnings.

        What would have happened if my $15,015 had been split in each of 357 baskets of single WBs but with each of all 42 RED Powerballs? I would have had guaranteed winnings of $1,071 instead of $0.

        How about all participants together? All possible combos would have costed $165,165 but with $0 winnings. But, if the money, $165,165, had been split in 3,933 such baskets, guaranteed winnings would have been $11,781, instead of $0.

        Interestingly, 9/28($3 winnings) and 9/24($0 winnings) drawings had extremely similar results.

        I just realize that Guaranteed Winning Strategy might be indeed better for the following two facts:
          1) it has the same expected value as any random or own-considerate selections,
          2) and, further, it guarantees a certain minimum amount of winnings, while random or one's own considerate selections do not, or can not.

        Frankly, so far I have failed to think of the above reasoning.

        Is there anything wrong with above reasoning, other than the matter-of-too-much-money to be invested? (I think this might lead to an issue related to possibly the superiority, indifference, or inferiority of a POOLed guaranteed winning strategy)

         

        Anon:

        Not too many months ago a guy on one of the Lottery Systems threads made a lot better job of it.  He made the claim that he could predict the numbers that would hit on MM.  Naturally, there was more than the necessary doubt from all quarters.  He was challenged to do it.

        As I recall, he posted 20 numbers several hours before one of the draws, plus one or several red ball choices.

        He got 4+1 that night.

        Evidently, he was pestered to death by people wanting him to tell how he did it, and some opportunists from another site began trying to ride his success.  The interest and excitement died away and seems forgotten.  So far as I know he's out there somewhere in the world winning enough money to impress himself, so he doesn't revisit LP.

        But that was a bright moment worth reminding ourselves of, occasionally, when things seem hopeless.  A guy announcing he has a system that works, announcing what numbers will hit a few hours later, and those numbers, five of them, hitting.

        Maybe, as some sneered, it was an accident he couldn't repeat.  But there's another, brighter possibility.  Maybe the guy was onto something we all want and just haven't found yet.  He was long on cryptic remarks...."History always repeats itself."  "Keep it simple."  But it seemed to have something to do with column hits and history.

        He was doing it all by hand.  Didn't even use a spreadsheet.  Wondered, in his remarks, whether software could do it easier.  I'm not any great shakes with comps, but he PMed me asking me some questions about how spreadsheets work.

        I'll keep looking, turning over every rock until I convince myself that announcement and draw were just the coincidence coordinators playing a trick.

        Jack

         

         

        I've often wondered where BL ran off to...maybe we will see him in the news someday.

        As for his spectacular 4+1 hit...doesn't prove or disprove his system.