Morrison, IL United States
Member #4,657
May 13, 2004
1,885 Posts
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The reason the CVO jumped by such a low amount was because PB's been selling less tickets than expected - if you do the math, the CVO for last Saturday's drawing, had it been won, would have been only $79.3 million, based on total sales for the current run (the first four drawings gave 32.6689% of sales to the jackpot, while the rest of the drawings gave 30.28855% of sales to the jackpot).
Morrison, IL United States
Member #4,657
May 13, 2004
1,885 Posts
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I'd have to agree with you on that one, dvdiva.
I'd also have to say there's a good chance it will make it there, since PB's experiencing the low sales:odds ratio most in-state lotto games experience that make those games sometimes seem to roll forever.
New Mexico United States
Member #12,305
March 10, 2005
2,984 Posts
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Hopefully if a person wins while it's 'only' 88.7 M will be able to moderate his/her lifestyle in such a way as to not have to work. Even though most lottery players are used to a higher standard of living than that allows, scrimping and saving, cutting corners, buying at Sam's and saving coupons, they could still make it.
If people aren't buying tickets when cash value's 88M, wonder why they'd buy if it's 150M. If they won they'd never know the difference between those two amounts. I'm betting the average lottery player would think he'd died and gone to heaven if he got a $10k a year pay raise down at the sweat-shop, before taxes.
United States
Member #5,565
July 11, 2004
260 Posts
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Long-term interest rates are also starting to rise more quickly. That will also cause the jackpot value to rise in greater proportion to the cash value. If the interest rate for a 30-year annuity rises from 4 percent to 6 percent, the annuity value would rise more than 25 percent for the same starting amount of cash. The other way to look at it is the cash value for a jackpot will be about 20 percent less than before should the interest rates rise to 6 percent.
Seoul Korea, South
Member #21,858
September 16, 2005
346 Posts
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Hopefully if a person wins while it's 'only' 88.7 M will be able to moderate his/her lifestyle in such a way as to not have to work. Even though most lottery players are used to a higher standard of living than that allows, scrimping and saving, cutting corners, buying at Sam's and saving coupons, they could still make it.
If people aren't buying tickets when cash value's 88M, wonder why they'd buy if it's 150M. If they won they'd never know the difference between those two amounts. I'm betting the average lottery player would think he'd died and gone to heaven if he got a $10k a year pay raise down at the sweat-shop, before taxes.
Jack
I agree with you on the point that even $10,000 pay raise, far less than $88M, would make anyone much pleasantly surprised. No doubt about it.
In my opinion, however, your remark is irrelevant, to a considerable extent, to the issue at hand, because comparing $10,000 pay raise directly to the PB jackpot is not fair due to the difference between the two in some important characteristics, such as the degree of certainty, stability, predictability, and so on. If one hopefully can win, who wouldn't buy PB tickets even for 1M?
$10 in one's hand can be MUCH, but $10M PB or MM jackpot might be perceived as SMALL, NOT because $10M by itself is small, BUT because it can be slightly or farless than what s/he expectsfrom a $1 ticket when considering the extremely low chance of just 1 in about 150 millions.
What I want to say is that things which a player gets, or wants to get, from buying a single lottery ticket should be different from one player to the other: expected monetary value, and subjectively perceived psychological utility such as fun, dreaming, or whatever to name it.
I don't think pursuing one or any combination of such things by itself is better than the other, or vice versa. Just world phenomenon, I think.
United States
Member #5,565
July 11, 2004
260 Posts
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[quote]
$10 in one's hand can be MUCH, but $10M PB or MM jackpot might be perceived as SMALL, NOT because $10M by itself is small, BUT because it can be slightly or farless than what s/he expectsfrom a $1 ticket when considering the extremely low chance of just 1 in about 150 millions.[/quote]
Jackpot fatigue. The players know that the bigger matrix results in very large jackpots so they hold off playing $ 20/$50/$100 worth at one till there's a reasonable expectation that the drawing will result in a jackpot winner.
New Mexico United States
Member #12,305
March 10, 2005
2,984 Posts
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Hopefully if a person wins while it's 'only' 88.7 M will be able to moderate his/her lifestyle in such a way as to not have to work. Even though most lottery players are used to a higher standard of living than that allows, scrimping and saving, cutting corners, buying at Sam's and saving coupons, they could still make it.
If people aren't buying tickets when cash value's 88M, wonder why they'd buy if it's 150M. If they won they'd never know the difference between those two amounts. I'm betting the average lottery player would think he'd died and gone to heaven if he got a $10k a year pay raise down at the sweat-shop, before taxes.
Jack
I agree with you on the point that even $10,000 pay raise, far less than $88M, would make anyone much pleasantly surprised. No doubt about it.
In my opinion, however, your remark is irrelevant, to a considerable extent, to the issue at hand, because comparing $10,000 pay raise directly to the PB jackpot is not fair due to the difference between the two in some important characteristics, such as the degree of certainty, stability, predictability, and so on. If one hopefully can win, who wouldn't buy PB tickets even for 1M?
$10 in one's hand can be MUCH, but $10M PB or MM jackpot might be perceived as SMALL, NOT because $10M by itself is small, BUT because it can be slightly or farless than what s/he expectsfrom a $1 ticket when considering the extremely low chance of just 1 in about 150 millions.
What I want to say is that things which a player gets, or wants to get, from buying a single lottery ticket should be different from one player to the other: expected monetary value, and subjectively perceived psychological utility such as fun, dreaming, or whatever to name it.
I don't think pursuing one or any combination of such things by itself is better than the other, or vice versa. Just world phenomenon, I think.
In my opinion, however, your remark is irrelevant, to a considerable extent, to the issue at hand, because comparing $10,000 pay raise directly to the PB jackpot is not fair due to the difference between the two in some important characteristics, such as the degree of certainty, stability, predictability, and so on. If one hopefully can win, who wouldn't buy PB tickets even for 1M?
$10 in one's hand can be MUCH, but $10M PB or MM jackpot might be perceived as SMALL, NOT because $10M by itself is small, BUT because it can be slightly or farless than what s/he expectsfrom a $1 ticket when considering the extremely low chance of just 1 in about 150 millions.
Thanks for the observation.
As with most Americans, I thrive on irrelavencies.
I notice you are in Korea. I don't know how things are there these days, but in the US a dollar will buy a Coca Cola, or a bag of peanuts, or cover 2/3 of the price of a small bag chips. Or a lottery ticket.
I can sympathize with people who don't chug a Coke, eat chips, or buy lottery tickets. But if a person does chug a coke without thinking about it, mindlessly munch on a bag of $1.29 chips, and does buy lottery tickets, why fret about whether the jackpot's major, or small? Most likely the ticket will be wastepaper in a few days, but it lasts longer than the coke or chips, which will be forgotten in a few moments.
