|Posted: December 23, 2005, 10:00 am - IP Logged|
When we think about it ..... as far as repeats
go there is always a very standard way to view it.
As we consider the probability of why so many repeats come out of the last say..... 25 draws it's not as hard to explain as we might think.
Look at it this way. We all know by experience that around 10 % of the time a number will repeat out of the last 25 draws right? OK so .... why? Well....in the last 25 draws approx 72% should be singles and the rest doubles or about 27% That gives us 18 six way numbers and 7 doubles. These last 25 numbers carry 129 straights within them ..... at all times.
This means ..... from a math point of view a "Repeat Number" should return from this ever changing group of the last 25 draws ... approx ...... 12.9 % of the time.
Now we understand why a single will repeat more often than a double. A single has a 72% greater chance than a double. The ratio is 18 to 7
That 12.9 % is based on a Boxed return. The odds of a number returning in the same straight form is much less. That should only happen around 2.5 % of the time.
According to that ..... we should expect around 9.1 straights to return from this group per year. From that particular group anyway.
Does every one agree with that figure? Did I miss something?
The only real failure .....is the failure to try.
Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.
Odds never change .....but probability does.