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need help with hit percent

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 11 years ago by hypersoniq.

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hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
Pennsylvania
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April 6, 2003
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Posted: December 26, 2005, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

ok, I am about ready to roll out a new freebie "open source" system for pick3 and pick4, but I need to test the results...

here is the info I have,

scenario one (3 digit game)

This game had 9,881 drawings... how many times would I expect to hit straight playing one random combination per game over the entire draw history?

scenario two (4 digit game)

This game had 7,367 drawings... how many times would I expect to hit straight playing one random combination per game over the entire draw history?

If anyone has a formula, that would help also... once I get the answer I will post the results of my backtesting... If I am on par with random averages, then there is no point wasting everyone's time with it...

thanks in advance for all replies Smile

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

    Raven62's avatar - binary
    New Jersey
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    June 28, 2005
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    Posted: December 27, 2005, 1:16 am - IP Logged

    In my travels I came across the following statistics for the Pick-3:

    50% of the time a NoMatch (6 way boxed number) will hit within 116 draws of its last draw.

    75% of the time it will hit within 231 draws of its last draw.

    99.00% of the time a nomatch will hit within 765 games of its last draw.

    Hopefully they will help you with your quest.

     


      hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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      Posted: December 27, 2005, 5:36 am - IP Logged

      interesting... thanks!

      here's what I found for results when backtesting my system...

      3 digit (64 straight hits in 9,881 games)

      4 digit (11 straight hits in 7,367 games)

      Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

        johnph77's avatar - avatar
        CA
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        Posted: December 27, 2005, 11:54 am - IP Logged

        The odds are exactly what they appear to be - 1::1,000 and 1::10,000, respectively. Your results are not outside the realm of normal probability.

        gl

        j

        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

         =^.^=

          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
          Stone Mountain*Georgia
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          Posted: December 27, 2005, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

           Something doesn't add up right. If you are looking at Straights only ......then that figure is way higher than expected.    

           

           

          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                 Win d    

            Avatar
            Poway CA (San Diego County)
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            Posted: December 27, 2005, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

             Something doesn't add up right. If you are looking at Straights only ......then that figure is way higher than expected.    

            I Agree!

              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
              Tx
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              Posted: December 27, 2005, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

              I don't know math, but yes, it is very obvious, so I also do agree.

              Go for it, Hyper.

              BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

              "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                Posted: December 27, 2005, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

                 It takes 2.7 years for all 1000 numbers to cycle or have at least one chance to hit.  

                Any Straight has an expected hit rate of 1 time every 1000 draws. Straight that is. Soooo it's really pretty easy to figure that the expected rate is once every 1000 number draw cycle. There were almost 10 cycles over about 27 years of draws or 9,881 . I would expect at least 9 or 10 straight hits during that time of any one of the 1000 numbers...... even triples. Each of the 1000 numbers would have hit straight almost the same amount of times.

                                        9.8 times straight (each)   

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: December 27, 2005, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

                  Remember if he's using a system then he's trying to do better than averages.  If a system can't beat the odds then it's no better than choosing QPs.  If it's really much better than expected he might have a winner.

                  Also in every lottery game that I've ever participated, combinations will start repeating when less than 15% of the possible combination have hit.  This include pick5 games also where I follow Ohio Buckeye5 which had 5 combinations to repeat in its 5000 draw history.  Buckeye5 was a 5/37 game that had 435,897 possible combinations.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    paurths's avatar - underground
                    Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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                    Posted: December 27, 2005, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

                    Each number has 1 in 1000 to hit, every draw.
                    The chances of the same number hitting several draws, counted before the first draw!!!, straight as is, would be for e.g. 3 draws in a row: 1000 * 1000 * 1000 = 1/1 000 000 000
                    i guess...

                    NJ eve, pick3:
                    10433 draws
                    Each number, in theorie, should have hit 10 times. (it's not b/c we find the 998 a high sum, that it has no chance of hitting... a 18-sumdigit has more chance to come out b/c it covers much more numbers than 24 or so, see the number 996 in the following view)

                    Top 20:

                    NbrHits
                    21923
                    99622
                    82421
                    00821
                    23920
                    25720
                    94920
                    91819
                    37419
                    11419
                    09719
                    16019
                    29119
                    31019
                    34218
                    51618
                    88818
                    09218
                    75118
                    32318

                     

                    Worst 20

                    NbrHits
                    3554
                    3674
                    0044
                    0714
                    1624
                    3034
                    9564
                    2034
                    3944
                    6654
                    4574
                    7394
                    2134
                    4403
                    2173
                    1383
                    7533
                    7282
                    1272
                    0612

                     

                    108 numbers have hit 10 times
                    The next view shows how many numbers fall into what categorie

                    numbersHits
                    123
                    122
                    221
                    320
                    719
                    1318
                    917
                    3116
                    3715
                    6014
                    8413
                    10812
                    13511
                    10910
                    1119
                    1048
                    647
                    636
                    335
                    184
                    43
                    32

                      hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
                      Pennsylvania
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                      Posted: December 27, 2005, 7:18 pm - IP Logged

                      cool, looks like things are a bit higher than random... definitely looks like something to keep working on.

                      thanks for the help!

                      Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.