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Texas scratch-off with profit potential

Topic closed. 8 replies. Last post 11 years ago by TonyB.

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austin
United States
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December 28, 2005
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Posted: December 28, 2005, 2:32 am - IP Logged

new member here...i've been doing analysis of scratch-off games as a hobby for about a year now. According to the data provided by the Texas lottery commission, there is a Texas Scratch-off game that is actually +EV at the moment. I estimate that for every $1 you put into this game, it provides an expected return of $1.66. Now, this estimate includes the fact that the majority of big prizes for this scratch-off remain unclaimed so this isn't a "money machine" or anything. Variance will still cause you to lose 30 cents on the dollar as you shoot for one of the big prizes but this is really not so bad either.

The game is: #418   $2 million Spectacular. Keep in mind that this game was released a couple of years ago and WILL be hard to find but there should still be about 200,000 unscratched tickets out there (with 2 out of 3 $2 million prizes unclaimed!!)

I'd be curious if anyone else works up odds to look for inequities in scratch-off distributions. This is the largest inequity I have found after tracking the Texas games for 12 months.

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    austin
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    December 28, 2005
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    Posted: December 28, 2005, 11:10 am - IP Logged

    Just wanted to add that if you are looking to play a game that might be more readily available, #617 Winter Treasures is running "rich" according the the data released Dec 24th.  (meaning that a greater than expected number of losing tickets have already been scratched leaving a greater than expected number of winners)

    The prize amounts that are running "rich" are the top prize of $500k (of 3, 2 remain) as well as the $2500 and $1000 prizes.

     

    I estimate that odds including break-even are 1 in 2.96 w/ winning odds (break-evens not considered) at 1 in 5.22.  Expected value (return) is running at 81.5%. 

     

    Other games worth a look:

    #533 $10 set for life at 96% return

         
    #612 $30 Holiday millionaire at 80% return
     
    These are the top 4 current Texas scratch-offs when ranked by expected return. 
     
    NOTES: Scratch-offs should be purchased for entertainment only and you should only buy them with money you plan to lose.  My advice is only provided to help you lose less often and possibly win more often. 

     

     

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      Fort Worth
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      Member #4717
      May 20, 2004
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      Posted: January 12, 2006, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

      One of two remaining $2 million prizes for $2 million Spectacular has been found. There is still one out there somewhere. The odds are still good.

      I've been watching this game for several months. It's been 3 months since I've been able to find a ticket.

      Too bad they don't have a way to search for stores selling a particular game.

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        austin
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        Posted: January 12, 2006, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

        #418   $2 million Spectacular now has 1 top prize remaining.  It's still a good play but not as rich as it was.

         

        #533 Set for Life is very close to 100% return now. 

         

        If there is interest, I will post the top 5 scratch-offs after running the latest numbers this weekend. 

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          Fort Worth
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          May 20, 2004
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          Posted: January 17, 2006, 12:32 am - IP Logged

          #418   $2 million Spectacular now has 1 top prize remaining.  It's still a good play but not as rich as it was.

           

          #533 Set for Life is very close to 100% return now. 

           

          If there is interest, I will post the top 5 scratch-offs after running the latest numbers this weekend. 

          I would be interested.

          I did my part for the $2 Million Spectacular today. I bought a losing ticket.

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            BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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            August 3, 2005
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            Posted: January 17, 2006, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

            the ga lottery page has like info      out of 60 games i found 5 games with better odds si

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              austin
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              Posted: January 17, 2006, 12:38 pm - IP Logged

               

              I'll be posting my picks for 1/14 later today.  I expect $2 Million Spectacular to still be positive EV and Set for Life #533 to be over 95% return.  We'll see if any other games are over 80%.

               
              TonyB - where did you find $2 Million Spectacular?  I've looked for it but can't find it here in Austin. 
               

               

               

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                Fort Worth
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                May 20, 2004
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                Posted: January 18, 2006, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

                I found it at a Stop n Go. I went back yesterday and picked up another one (a break-even winner) and one of the #533 Set for Life (a loser).

                They are renaming some Stop 'n Go stores to Valero. You may know them by that name. They had a glass countertop at both registers with tickets below. They had at least 30, maybe 40 different tickets. I just haven't seen these two games in a while.

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                  Fort Worth
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                  May 20, 2004
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                  Posted: January 24, 2006, 2:31 pm - IP Logged

                  Take #533 Set for Life off the list. The last top prize has been won.