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Back testing

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 11 years ago by RJOh.

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mtmk's avatar - Gilak
New Jersey
United States
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December 12, 2005
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Posted: June 2, 2006, 4:30 pm - IP Logged

Sorry if I am asking a silly question, but how do you backtest a system?

 

Thanks,

mtmk

    silky's avatar - nw gingblade.jpg

    United States
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    January 13, 2006
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    Posted: June 2, 2006, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

    you use later dates and see if it comes out to thenumber on that date  or close to it .

      silky's avatar - nw gingblade.jpg

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      Posted: June 2, 2006, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

      I didn't  give enough infor.... let say it's May 25 2006 and you are back testing you go to april or later and do with what you want with numbers  and pick the date and see if it comes out . so on and so on

        mtmk's avatar - Gilak
        New Jersey
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        Posted: June 4, 2006, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

        I get it -Pick a date in the past, apply whatever system you are testing, and compare it to real world results-got it.  Thank you!

          hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
          Pennsylvania
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          April 6, 2003
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          Posted: June 11, 2006, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

          That's exactly it...

          If your system can't predict results you already know, odds are against it picking results you do not yet have. It is a great litmus test that probably saved me hundreds or even thousands chasing system results over the years.

          If you track subtle changes with different data, you can use backtesting to optimize things and answer questions like "how many draws do I use?". You can have a system, come up with several variants and backtest them side-by-side.

          Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            March 24, 2001
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            Posted: June 13, 2006, 10:56 pm - IP Logged

            I would think one would develop a system using their knowledge of pass drawings and test as it's developed, so back testing would just be a natural part of the process.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking