A rough idea of what the loss of NJ will mean to MM.Prev TopicNext Topic

• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
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  Jul 2, 2006, 1:23 pm

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  We have lost our lottery here in New Jersey in the struggle over our budget.

  I question whether cutting a source of revenue is a good idea under the circumstances (will New Jersey stop collecting taxes?) but I do understand that we need to dramatically reassess how we pay for our government here.    It is painful but necessary.

  In any case, I hae made a rough calculation of how the two factors continue to weigh down the MM jackpot growth will play out.   New Jersey will be eliminated from the next drawing.   It was the third largest selling state, responsible for 1.44 million in sales.   Some of these sales may be recovered in New York for people who either commute to NY or live close to the border with NY, but this will be a fraction, and I will treat the NJ sales loss as being 100%.

  Californians have not stopped buying MM tickets, but they are obviously buying fewer.   I estimate crudely that they will buy 10% fewer tickets than they bought in the last 2nd drawing, which also had a large in state jackpot.   Thus I estimate they will still buy about 2.0 million MM tickets.

  Thus if the jackpot rolls again, based on the other know factors, I'm going to guess that the jackpot should go about about 6 million dollars annuity.

  Note that in recent times, the jackpot has risen fast enough to reach 20 million annuity on the second drawing.

  MM will grow slower than we are used to, but it will still grow. 
• RJOh

  

  100

  mid-Ohio
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  Jul 2, 2006, 1:56 pm

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  I'm sure the shut down is only temporary and since the jackpot was just won it's low.  The citizens of New Jersey aren't going to be as mad as they might have been had they been prevented from participating in a $200M+ jackpot.  Maybe the MegaMillions group will renegotiate their agreements with the states so that the game can't be used by local politicians to make a point.  After all the game was designed to contribute money to the states not the other way round.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• bellyache

  

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  Jul 2, 2006, 2:24 pm

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  I thought the shut down was temporary also. I think NJ would be foolish to get rid of gaming completely. They make tons of money off of lottery games. It wouldn't make sense to end it.
• scorpio

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  Jul 2, 2006, 3:57 pm

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  i don't feel bad as i've bought many tickets at casinos and never won anything.i guess thet think new jerseyans are so rich they don't need to win,just pay into lottery!
• scorpio

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  Jul 3, 2006, 4:13 pm

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  hea,let's transfer our comps,benefits to las vegas and fly there!
• Just6ntlc

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  Jul 3, 2006, 11:31 pm

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  If NJ has to shut down their game in MM, sales will be going down as well.
• RJOh

  

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  mid-Ohio
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  Jul 6, 2006, 7:29 pm

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  New Jersey will be back on line for the MegaMillions drawing tomorrow.  Politicians weren't concerned when lottery players could buy a ticket, but when the casinos closed they took notice.  Could it be that casinos owners know more politicians than the average lottery player? 

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• scorpio

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  Jul 6, 2006, 7:51 pm

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  higher sales tax for rooms,etc.now.
• dvdiva

  

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  Jul 6, 2006, 10:51 pm

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  I think it's the additional vice that Mafia casinos can offer. On Corporate ones it's probably just money like the tribal casinos. Lottery tickets may not seem like much but if they have smart people running the numbers it helps out quite a bit. Of course that may exclude the people running NJ.
  
• Just6ntlc

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  Jul 6, 2006, 10:53 pm

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  It still will cost $1 [no tax] to buy a MM ticket in NJ, but taxes are up everywhere else. Without NJ in MM, OH, TX, and CA were the only jackpot winners since CA joined MM in June 24, 2006.
• dvdiva

  

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  Jul 7, 2006, 11:23 pm

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  I think the impact won't be much since it will be yet another sub $100 million run. If, by some miracle, it had been a record run I agree with RJOH that it would have made many players angry. I doubt that NJ voters are going to pick more finanically responsible leaders though. Incumbents always seem to win.
  
• Just6ntlc

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  Jul 8, 2006, 12:00 pm

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  Although NJ came back to play MM, the roll increased to only 29 million.