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MM's low sales

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Just6ntlc.

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Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
Atlantic Mine, Michigan
United States
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Posted: July 5, 2006, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

Well they predicted the slow sales right.  With the holiday and the third largest sales lottery out of commission they only sold $10,000,000 in tickets for July 4, 2006 drawing.  They haven't sold that few tickets since late 2004.

Brad

    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

    United States
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    Posted: July 5, 2006, 6:12 pm - IP Logged

    I doubt the string of low jackpots could have anything to do with it.

    I'm only wondering when they can fix the game so it can generate the jackpots we were told we'd have when it came to this state. It was advertised that jackpots of $400 million was possible. When it was sold to CA that number was even higher. 

    While Elvis getting out of a UFO on the White House lawn is a possiblity, I hope that's not the kind of odds they were looking at when they made the sales pitch. 

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: July 5, 2006, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

      The St Louis Post-Dispatch ran a story that predicted possible $500,000,000 jackpots when California joined Mega Millions.  

      Of course that story didn't say a thing about an expanded matrix. 

        bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg

        United States
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        Posted: July 5, 2006, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

        I think the only way we'll see a $400 million dollar jackpot or higher, is to add a couple more balls and I know a lot of people would be against that, including me.

        Dance like no one is watching.

          Avatar
          New Mexico
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          Posted: July 5, 2006, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

          Well they predicted the slow sales right.  With the holiday and the third largest sales lottery out of commission they only sold $10,000,000 in tickets for July 4, 2006 drawing.  They haven't sold that few tickets since late 2004.

          Brad

          They don't appear to have done too badly (except for the players)

           

          If someone wins this one they'll have to pay out $12M, Crying and ticket sales probably won't be more than twice that amountCrying

           Fri, Jul 7, 2006 $22 Million $8 Million
          Roll! Thumbs Up$10M clear profit Party

          Tue, Jul 4, 2006 $14 Million $2 Million

          Roll!  Thumbs UpAll ticket sales clear profit! Party

          Fri, Jun 30, 2006 $12 Million ($11 Million) Roll - clear profit

           

          Win Crying had to pay out maybe $12 M of maybe $20 M ticket sales.No Pity!
          Tue, Jun 27, 2006 $23 Million $7 Million

           Roll Thumbs UpAll ticket sales clear profitParty
          Fri, Jun 23, 2006 $16 Million $4 Million R
          Roll Thumbs UpAll ticket sales clear profitParty

          Tue, Jun 20, 2006 $12 Million ($22 Million)

           Win Crying had to pay out maybe $17 M of maybe $35 M ticket sales.No Pity!

          Fri, Jun 16, 2006 $34 Million $9 Million

          Roll Thumbs Up All ticket sales clear profitParty

          Tue, Jun 13, 2006 $25 Million $8 Million
          Roll Thumbs Up All ticket sales clear profitParty

          Fri, Jun 9, 2006 $17 Million $5 Million
          Roll Thumbs Up All ticket sales clear profitParty

          Tue, Jun 6, 2006 $12 Million ($35 Million)

           

           

           

           

           

          Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

          It's about number behavior.

          Egos don't count.

           

          Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

           

            Avatar
            New Mexico
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            Posted: July 5, 2006, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

            There's a way to make those jackpot sizes larger, and it doesn't involve changing the matrix. 

            It doesn't involve extending the annuity to $100 years to make the jackpot appear larger while actual cash awarded and available on the day of the draw remains the same.

            The word 'ROLL' implies some of the money from previous unawarded draws is ROLLED into the next draw to increase the jackpot size beyond ticket sales for that draw.

            What a concept, huh?

            J

            Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

            It's about number behavior.

            Egos don't count.

             

            Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

             

              Avatar
              Morrison, IL
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              Posted: July 5, 2006, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

              Actually, if Mega Millions got won at the opening level too many times, they'd probably end up like Powerball and allocate less sales to the jackpot than the maximum that their rules allow, because they'd have to fund their prize reserves due to repeatedly paying out more than 50% of draw sales for the "guaranteed" jackpots and the states would be damned if they had to take money out of their own program funds. The same thing would happen if Mega got an extroardinarily high amount of second place winners like Powerball did twice last year.

                Avatar
                New Mexico
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                Posted: July 5, 2006, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

                Actually, if Mega Millions got won at the opening level too many times, they'd probably end up like Powerball and allocate less sales to the jackpot than the maximum that their rules allow, because they'd have to fund their prize reserves due to repeatedly paying out more than 50% of draw sales for the "guaranteed" jackpots and the states would be damned if they had to take money out of their own program funds. The same thing would happen if Mega got an extroardinarily high amount of second place winners like Powerball did twice last year.

                I don't recall which it was at the moment, but one of the two, Gargantuan, or Pentagruel, had 41 rolls last year and paid 6 jackpots.

                You figure it out.

                J

                Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                It's about number behavior.

                Egos don't count.

                 

                Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                 

                  dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                  United States
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                  Posted: July 6, 2006, 12:37 am - IP Logged

                  There is a far easier fix and that's to raise the ticket price to $2.

                  Another matrix change may not go over well. If they are going to make a change it would be to add a white ball.

                  5/56 + 1/46 (now) = 1:175 mil.

                  5/57 + 1/45 = 1:188 mil (Same number of balls just higher odds)

                  5/57 + 1/46 =  1:192 mil (As high as I see it going.)

                  5/56 + 1/47 = 1:179 mil. 

                  Adding a Mega ball doesn't really change the odds to make it worth while. Then it would match Heinz 57.

                  Except it would be 57 varieties of loosing, at least for me. 

                    Avatar
                    NY
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                    Posted: July 6, 2006, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

                    There is a far easier fix and that's to raise the ticket price to $2.

                    Another matrix change may not go over well. If they are going to make a change it would be to add a white ball.

                    5/56 + 1/46 (now) = 1:175 mil.

                    5/57 + 1/45 = 1:188 mil (Same number of balls just higher odds)

                    5/57 + 1/46 =  1:192 mil (As high as I see it going.)

                    5/56 + 1/47 = 1:179 mil. 

                    Adding a Mega ball doesn't really change the odds to make it worth while. Then it would match Heinz 57.

                    Except it would be 57 varieties of loosing, at least for me. 

                    If the authorities did decide to change the game doubling the price of a ticket is probably a worse choice than changing the odds.  The odds are already high enough that  very few people take them seriously. Either you play or you don't. I don't expect many people would stop playing  or even change their buying pattern much if the odds increased by 10 or 20%. Doubling the cost of aticket, OTOH, will probably result in a significant reduction in tickets sales to the people who aren't regular players, and the people who routinely buy multiple tickets are likely to just  spend the same amount and get fewer tickets.

                    The easiest fix of all is to realize that it's not broken and doesn't need fixing.

                    Here's a list of the (annuity) jackpots for the last year, each of which had only one winning ticket:

                     7/22    170 million

                     9/16   250

                    11/15  315

                    12/30    88

                     2/28   267

                     4/18   265 

                    5/16     94

                      6/2      47

                      6/16    34

                      6/27    23
                     

                    If the odds of winning are 1:175 million and numbers were all played  randomly then over the long term there should be 1 winner for every 175 million tickets that are sold. With 30 cents of each ticket going to the jackpot that would mean an average cash prize of about 52.5 million, which they'll advertise as close to 100 million. In the last year there were 10 winning tickets and the average annuity jackpot was $155 million, which would be about 85 million in cash. We haven't seen a 400 million dollar annuity, but for the past year the jackpots have been pretty much what we should expect. 

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                      Morrison, IL
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                      Posted: July 6, 2006, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

                      With Mega Millions' odds as long as they are, and the fact that no matter how long the odds are a game can still go on a hot streak, it's no wonder that MM isn't letting any more states join.

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                        New Mexico
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                        Posted: July 6, 2006, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

                        With Mega Millions' odds as long as they are, and the fact that no matter how long the odds are a game can still go on a hot streak, it's no wonder that MM isn't letting any more states join.

                        Maybe.

                        On the other hand, maybe the customers just aren't so stupid as the marketing people believe they are.

                        No way of knowing whether a big jackpot multi-state game would sell like hotcakes, or wouldn't, if they offered a straight-from-the-shoulder description of what they actually have to sell.

                        A cash value game, rolls, at least 50 percent of which go back into the next jackpot.

                        Maybe with the odds just as they are people would buy.

                        Nobody has tried it.

                        We probably all agree we're all stupid to one degree or another.  But when we catch someone trying to sell us something by assuming we're stupider than we are, we resent it.

                        Trust, once lost, takes some serious regaining.  But first, the lotteries need to realize that trust is eroding faster than a fish goes rotten lying out on the bank.

                        J

                         

                         

                        Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                        It's about number behavior.

                        Egos don't count.

                         

                        Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                         


                          United States
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                          Posted: July 7, 2006, 9:33 am - IP Logged

                          I think MM should go to a 5/56+1/52. I saw MM go to 5/52+1/52, so I suggest adding 6 more MBs to make it more difficult to win a jackpot. MM Sales were down because of NJ shut down their lotto for a while. In addition, CA SLP went to 110 million after 23 rolls without a winner.