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Random Skew Vs Bias

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Fibonacci.

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JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

United States
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July 13, 2004
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Posted: July 13, 2006, 11:02 am - IP Logged

Hi,

    We've all seen some wierd things with lottery numbers. Things like the same number getting picked four times in a row. Alot more odd numbers being picked than even numbers over a large number of games. And I'm sure you probably have encounter your own instances of unbalanced events regarding the outcome of picked lottery numbers.

  So, the question is....At what point can you say that a particular game is biased or favors a particular set of events? Or is it just randomness at work? What is the rule of thumb of one versus the other?

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: July 13, 2006, 11:48 am - IP Logged

    Games like WV Cash25(6/25) and OH Rolling Cash5(5/39) which favors odds numbers have more odd numbers in their number pools which may be why more odd numbers come up.  My rule of thumb is several small random samples of a number pool will have the same mix as the whole number pool.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

      United States
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      Posted: July 13, 2006, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

      Okay, lets try it this way.....When the lottery officials audit the picks...how would they determine that the picks are not as random as they should be....that there is a bias?

      You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

      Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: July 13, 2006, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

        I've read that there are formulas that mathematicians can use to calculate the parameters of randomness and bias of any event.  I would imagine the lotteries audit their drawings and prizes payouts and investigate whenever those events are not within the expected parameters.  When PowerBall had all those 5of5 wins last year it triggered an investigation that ended at a fortune cookie factory in New York.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
          Wisconsin
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          March 27, 2003
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          Posted: July 13, 2006, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

          Hi,

              We've all seen some wierd things with lottery numbers. Things like the same number getting picked four times in a row. Alot more odd numbers being picked than even numbers over a large number of games. And I'm sure you probably have encounter your own instances of unbalanced events regarding the outcome of picked lottery numbers.

            So, the question is....At what point can you say that a particular game is biased or favors a particular set of events? Or is it just randomness at work? What is the rule of thumb of one versus the other?

          I wish I knew how to do it.  When George Seder was on LP and working on his wheeling software, he was able to mathmatically determine when a game is biased. The WI P3 and P4 is biased, according to that...and from watching it, it also seems to be biased toward higher digits. But I think the AMOUNT of bias is what is important, and I'm not at all certain of the math needed to apply to it.

          ============

          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

          Answer: His lips are moving.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: July 16, 2006, 2:09 pm - IP Logged

            Hi,

                We've all seen some wierd things with lottery numbers. Things like the same number getting picked four times in a row. Alot more odd numbers being picked than even numbers over a large number of games. And I'm sure you probably have encounter your own instances of unbalanced events regarding the outcome of picked lottery numbers.

              So, the question is....At what point can you say that a particular game is biased or favors a particular set of events? Or is it just randomness at work? What is the rule of thumb of one versus the other?

            I wish I knew how to do it.  When George Seder was on LP and working on his wheeling software, he was able to mathmatically determine when a game is biased. The WI P3 and P4 is biased, according to that...and from watching it, it also seems to be biased toward higher digits. But I think the AMOUNT of bias is what is important, and I'm not at all certain of the math needed to apply to it.

            As I remembered, George was quite serious about playing lotteries both at Maybell and LP, hired some programmers, wrote some programs and even started a website.  What ever happen to him after he moved from Michigan?  Did he beat the lottery or did the lottery beat him?  Maybe he will pop in one of these days and give us an update.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
              FEMA Region V Camp #21
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              Posted: July 16, 2006, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

              Randomness happens randomly. Flipping a coin might land heads five times in a row. Short term biases exist in all random events.

              The smart player should take advantage of the short term bias and bet heads for the next coin toss.

              There is no mathematical formula for random biases. They are there for all to see as they are happening and can be easily recognized for what they are.

              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                Michigan
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                Posted: July 16, 2006, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

                You need to look up chi-squared test.   I think it will tell you if the bias is an edge over large amounts of data.   

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: July 16, 2006, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

                  Random numbers are numbers generated by a process, whose outcome is unpredictable, and which cannot be reliably reproduced.  That being said, according to : http://www.lotterypost.com/news/102721.htm  some statisticians did a study of the UK lottery and concluded it was bias but they didn't indicate how the information could help the average lottery players win a jackpot.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                    FEMA Region V Camp #21
                    United States
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                    Posted: July 16, 2006, 4:18 pm - IP Logged

                    As a sample of random data gets larger the biases in that data get proportionately smaller until infinity when there is no bias at all.

                    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).



                      United States
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                      Posted: July 18, 2006, 11:50 am - IP Logged

                      I think Random Skew is better choice. Most games are fair with ball drawn random jackpot games.

                        Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                        New York, NY
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                        Posted: July 18, 2006, 12:00 pm - IP Logged

                        As a sample of random data gets larger the biases in that data get proportionately smaller until infinity when there is no bias at all.

                        True (in principle), which may allow us to conclude there is no truly random sample, since only an infinite number of trials would allow us to conclude definitively on its randomness (and even then there are philosophical questions). We should only talk about a tendency to be random or an approximation.

                         The mathematical tests used to determine whether a sample is random are themselves open to question on epistemological grounds. 

                        $$$