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opinions, please

Topic closed. 8 replies. Last post 10 years ago by GASMETERGUY.

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Naguabo
Puerto Rico
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July 19, 2006
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Posted: July 19, 2006, 2:32 pm - IP Logged

In looking at various lottery systems out there it is not clear to me if everybody considers terms like "cold", "due", "hot" , etc. in the same way.

I feel I need the opinion of experienced players on the following issues:

If a number hits a lot, say 15-25 times of the last 100 draws, and its median skip is low, say 1 ,2 or 3, (meaning it had a tendency to repeat often in the last 100 draws) but the number has not appeared for say, 8 draws already,

Is it now cold?

Is it overdue?

Is it still hot?

Should I stop looking at the last 100 draws and take a smaller sample?

I have seen suggestions that I should eliminate such numbers from my pool, that numbers that hit a lot, but also have recent skips less than their normal (or say, median skip) are the ones likely to keep repeating. At first sight I cannot agree completely.

Is there some sort of weight scoring system?

For example, how do you weight, (score) the following factors?

That a number hits a lot

That it skips little and lately has a large skip

That it lately has low skip

That its most often pair also hits a lot

etc..

You see some of these factor can sometimes be contradictory, and still be interpreted as a good thing for the particular number.

How about if a number hits rarely, but is lately on a roll?

I wonder if a value (say 1 for a positive, 2 for even better, -1 for a bad quality) could be assigned to each factor, and that way we could see each number's "score" in choosing a pool of numbers for the next draw.

What do you people think?

Does such a system exists already?

Of course I could wait and see, and come up with my own opinion eventually, but it is only lately that I consider to be able to afford playing a few tickets a week, so I'm just begining to look into these things.

Thank you for any response.

    LottoVantage's avatar - BRITIS 3.GIF
    Southeastern Ohio
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    April 16, 2005
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    Posted: July 19, 2006, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

    Take a look over here at this thread...http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/138443

     

      dacman's avatar - Coyote
      California
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      Posted: July 20, 2006, 3:24 pm - IP Logged

      These numbers have seriously under-performed in the last 100 games in the Cal Fantasy Five:

      3,7,8,9,10,11,15,17,21,23,28,32,39.  You could say they are over-due.  (Source: Advantage Plus-Quick Stats) 

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        New Mexico
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        March 10, 2005
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        Posted: July 21, 2006, 9:10 am - IP Logged

        Interesting question.

        Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

        It's about number behavior.

        Egos don't count.

         

        Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

         

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          NASHVILLE, TENN
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          Posted: July 21, 2006, 5:58 pm - IP Logged

          These numbers have seriously under-performed in the last 100 games in the Cal Fantasy Five:

          3,7,8,9,10,11,15,17,21,23,28,32,39.  You could say they are over-due.  (Source: Advantage Plus-Quick Stats) 

          Since the title of this thread is "Opinions, please", here is mine

          In the set of underperfomed numbers above, what is the probability of all 5 winnings numbers being in this set?  IMHO, the probability is low.

          However, what is the probability of there being one or more winning numbers in the set?  Again, IMHO, the probability if high.

          Therefore, we should look for those number sets (a set being 5 numbers) that contain more than one but less than three numbers which are also contained in the underperforming set.

          Unfortunately, doing something like this will produce more number sets than a vast majority of us can afford to wager.

          However, if we were to track this variable for any length of time, I am sure we could get a feel for what is likely to happen next.  We would find that if there were two numbers from an underperforming set last week,  this week there would be one or three numbers.

          I am also sure that if we tracked this variable long enough, we could accurately guess how many numbers would be coming from the underperforming set of numbers.  We would guess wrong a lot of times but aren't we guessing wrong right now?  So far, I know of no one who has won the jackpot. 

          I look upon underperforming numbers as being "cold" numbers.  The question now is: "How far back should one go to find all the cold numbers?"

          Some say 40 draws; some say 100.  I say experiment until you find that happy point which satisfies you.

          Gentlemen, program your computers!

            dacman's avatar - Coyote
            California
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            Posted: July 21, 2006, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

            GasMeterGuy said:  "I look upon underperforming numbers as being "cold" numbers."

            ___________________________________________________________________

             If a number goes three times it`s 'skip average' (7), why not call it COLD?  Using that formula, there were only two numbers in the underperforming group that qualified. (9 &10)  Throw them out and you`ve cut the group down to eleven numbers.  Add in some HOT numbers and a few ADJACENT numbers and you`ve got a workable group of 18-20 numbers that just might win something!

            I agree, the underperforming group by itself would seldom( if ever) hit a 5 of 5. 

             

             

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              NASHVILLE, TENN
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              Posted: July 22, 2006, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

              Perhaps any number that has gone seven times its skip average would be a good candidate for "cold".  That is one definition and a good one.

              Now to put this definition into practice.  Could one say that including a cold number in any set is required?  I think not.  Could one say that excluding a cold number in any set is required?  I thnk not.  Therefore, what do we do with cold numbers?

              What if we say this:   if the last draw included a cold number, then the next draw will include a cold number.

              Looking back over the last 65 drawing in Tennessee's Cash 5, a cold number repeated 53% of the time.  Based on this information, we should look to see what happened the last time and follow suit.  We would be correct 50% of the time.

              Of course we could go the other way and say a cold number will not repeat.  We will still be correct 50% of the time.

              Whichever way we go, though, our strategy should remain the same for several draws....if not for several weeks or even several months. 

              I welcome any contrary opinions.  Or any opinions, for that matter.  If I find I am the only one carrying on this thread, some people might become offended. 

               

                dacman's avatar - Coyote
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                Posted: July 22, 2006, 5:16 pm - IP Logged

                GasMeterGuy said: " Looking back over the last 65 drawing in Tennessee's Cash 5, a cold number repeated 53% of the time."

                _______________________________________

                Interesting stat.  What was the criteria there for a COLD number?    

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                  NASHVILLE, TENN
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                  Posted: July 22, 2006, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

                  A cold number is one of the last six numbers with the fewest hits during the last 40 draws.

                  Ergo: a hot number is one of the first six number with the highest hits for 40 draws.

                  My definition of "hot" or "cold" may not be anyone else's and probably isn't.  That's fine.  40 draws back is my "happy place".