Pick 3 Mid Day Play 8/4/06Prev TopicNext Topic

• P3FC

  

  United States
  Member #44,209
  July 31, 2006
  16 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 4, 2006, 1:26 pm

  ▲▼

  Game: IND Tickets: 1  Cost: $102

  012,014,015,016,017,018,019,023,024,025,026,027,028,029,034,035,036,037,038,039,045,046,047,048,056,057,059,068,069,078,079,089,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,134,135,136,137,138,145,146,147,149,156,158,159,167,168,169,178,179,189,235,236,237,239,245,246,248,249,257,258,259,267,268,269,278,279,289,347,348,349,356,357,358,359,367,368,369,378,379,389,457,458,459,467,468,469,478,479,489,568,569,578,579,689,789,
• P3FC

  

  United States
  Member #44,209
  July 31, 2006
  16 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 4, 2006, 3:16 pm

  ▲▼

  hit 125

   $48 profit
  
• WIN D

  

  Stone Mountain*Georgia
  United States
  Member #828
  November 2, 2002
  10,491 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 4, 2006, 3:21 pm

  ▲▼

  The only Foolish bet is the one that doesn't win ...right? LOL

   The only foolish part of this bet was they weren't played Straight.... LOL

  

   

   

  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                         Win d    
• P3FC

  

  United States
  Member #44,209
  July 31, 2006
  16 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 4, 2006, 7:29 pm

  ▲▼

  A bad bet is foolish. Some risks are better than others. A win is a win, and there is a reason why the above won. However it is a part of the territory of playing the p3 game one needs to have somewhere between $1500 and $3000 of risk capital. If a player is not willing to take that sort of risk - and on a bet that makes sense (the other part of it, just having $$ to waste on gambling is  not the prescription for profit) - there is no point to playing. There is still a risk of loss. Either one pays for a higher quality risk, or they take a  much higher risk of loss with less money, insuring a net loss over time.

  I am not certain there is any strategy that can beat the p3 game, but for the time being, I like what I am doing. The a*h* post of yours notwithstanding to the contrary :)
• P3FC

  

  United States
  Member #44,209
  July 31, 2006
  16 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 4, 2006, 7:43 pm

  ▲▼

  By the way, the actual order of the numbers was 152. I posted the 'boxed' version (in order). I almost never play a straight bet, with the exception of a triples play. Therefore, it would have been "foolish" (your term) to play for a straight bet, as it would have resulted in a loss, and the high probability play for a singles draw on this day would have been wasted. That would have been foolish. Fundamentally the probability for a singles play was solid, if i had to roll over a few draws it would not have mattered because I have the cash to cover the bet. However, there are a couple of modest filters involved, with statistical probabilites (combined) of 12% to occur (and cause a loss).  So i this case there were three hurdles to over come 1) singles draw must play (a 99% probability today, and by the third draw 99%), filter 1 at 6% and filter 2 at 6% likelihood of occurance. Assuming a periodic loss for this type of bet based on the default probabilities, a worst case scenario is a modest profit to just below break even. If handled well, reasonably profitable.

  The assumption that because a lot of money was invested to produce the prfoit translates into a bad bet, given the overall context and nature of the game, is theoretically premature.  But, then again, since you are obviously one who knows everything, I must be wrong.