Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 1:03 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Determining a Coincidence or Possible Trend

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 10 years ago by time*treat.

Page 1 of 1
PrintE-mailLink
jordi marey's avatar - Lottery-039.jpg

United States
Member #17354
June 17, 2005
102 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 5, 2006, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

In longer spurts of lottery wins , how often should this happen to consider this a trend or possible intermittent pattern and not just intermittent coincidence.

    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

    United States
    Member #41383
    June 16, 2006
    1969 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 6, 2006, 1:49 am - IP Logged

    In longer spurts of lottery wins , how often should this happen to consider this a trend or possible intermittent pattern and not just intermittent coincidence.

    It depends on the trend you are talking about ???????????

     

    I see about 4 different trends happening at any given time, the problem is, these trends only last between 4-6, maybe 8 games AT MOST, so by the time you notice them, and then confirm them, they usually go in another direction.

    I do not 'trend' individual numbers, and I do not 'track' individual numbers, I trend game scenarios, and the numbers 'fall into' those scenarios.  What I mean is I don't 'play' a specific number based on tracking or trends.

     

    PS - all of my trendmonging is for Powerball, I don't play anything else but. 

      Avatar
      NASHVILLE, TENN
      United States
      Member #33372
      February 20, 2006
      1044 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: September 8, 2006, 12:57 am - IP Logged

      Please define "trend".

      What are you seeing as a trend?

        time*treat's avatar - radar

        United States
        Member #13130
        March 30, 2005
        2171 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: September 9, 2006, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

        In longer spurts of lottery wins , how often should this happen to consider this a trend or possible intermittent pattern and not just intermittent coincidence.

        The exact "how often" will depend on the particulars of the trend(s). As long as there is some form of regularity, it can be useful. Pluto does not orbit the sun as often as Mercury, but you could say there is enough of a pattern to predict when the three objects will line up.

        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

          United States
          Member #41383
          June 16, 2006
          1969 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: September 9, 2006, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

          The exact "how often" will depend on the particulars of the trend(s). As long as there is some form of regularity, it can be useful. Pluto does not orbit the sun as often as Mercury, but you could say there is enough of a pattern to predict when the three objects will line up.

          But there is no real form of 'regularity' that is good enough to bet the house on.

           

          Those of us that really study this see things, we see things that SHOULD happen, but they don't.

           A lot of us knew WB #21 was long overdue to hit, and pretty soon it got to be so long overdue that we dropped it.

          Same goes for WB #1 and WB #7 - waay overdue to hit, but we kinda shy away from then because they have not hit

          'when they were due'.  They will hit 'some day', but do we play them, or play something else that we think is 'better' ?

           

          Right now, the best thing we can do is have a pool of numbers we think are 'due', and then just guess which ones of those to play.

          Usually, two or three people get 3 out of 5 right, and that's about it.  Four of five happens, but not often. 

            time*treat's avatar - radar

            United States
            Member #13130
            March 30, 2005
            2171 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: September 9, 2006, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

            By not falling is, of course, how a number gets "overdue" in the first place. I was thinking more along the lines of groups of numbers (due or otherwise).

            I haven't found any single pattern worth betting the house on, but I think there are ways to reduce the betting set. I only do p5. P3/p4 may require a different tack.

            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

              guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

              United States
              Member #41383
              June 16, 2006
              1969 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 10, 2006, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

              BTW - I select numbers NOT by hot/cold/due, I eliminate numbers using certain criteria, which leaves me with a 'pool' to choose from.

                time*treat's avatar - radar

                United States
                Member #13130
                March 30, 2005
                2171 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 16, 2006, 4:17 am - IP Logged

                In longer spurts of lottery wins , how often should this happen to consider this a trend or possible intermittent pattern and not just intermittent coincidence.

                I'd look for a ratio first. Let's say you see a setup in the FL. numbers that happened 10 times last year. Run the pattern/system through the GA. numbers (or wherever) and see if you get (+/-)10 setups, too. Or run it through 2 years worth of numbers and see if it happens ~20 times.

                If you get a fairly stable ratio across places/periods, I'd say you have something there. It is up to you to decide if the number of setups/period is something you want to keep.  

                Good luck and skill Cool

                In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                  guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #41383
                  June 16, 2006
                  1969 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 16, 2006, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

                  The only way you can do that is to track every single number since the last complete ballset change, and then after that, you have to track each number per machine and per set used.

                   

                  Guess what ?

                   

                  I've done it, and there is just not any conclusive evidence to be able to COUNT ON certain numbers hitting on a given day with 100% accuracy.

                  Meaning, for example, if you look at the numbers that come in when set #8 and machine #14 is used, you would think you would be able to see certain numbers hitting more than others, and certain numbers rarely hitting, but I don't see it enough to be calling J.G. Wentworth just yet... 

                    time*treat's avatar - radar

                    United States
                    Member #13130
                    March 30, 2005
                    2171 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 17, 2006, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

                    guesser,

                    We are in agreement that tracking every number will not let you predict with 100% accuracy.

                    We are also talking about two entirely different things.

                    Since I am not focusing on a specific number or machine (especially since some states don't use "machines" to pick their numbers) this set number & machine number business does not apply to what I have said. 

                    In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                    Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                      guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                      United States
                      Member #41383
                      June 16, 2006
                      1969 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 17, 2006, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

                      guesser,

                      We are in agreement that tracking every number will not let you predict with 100% accuracy.

                      We are also talking about two entirely different things.

                      Since I am not focusing on a specific number or machine (especially since some states don't use "machines" to pick their numbers) this set number & machine number business does not apply to what I have said. 

                      I do NOT track ball sets or machines either.

                       

                      I apparently missed what you were getting at, so I will just drop it. 

                        jordi marey's avatar - Lottery-039.jpg

                        United States
                        Member #17354
                        June 17, 2005
                        102 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 22, 2006, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

                        Please define "trend".

                        What are you seeing as a trend?

                        “‘Finding a real mathematical advantage to the games will probably entail finding an event that constantly performs at a much higher percentage than that of its true probability”.

                         

                        Isolate and sequence digits in specific positions, in this case it’s a mid position # seven (in a pick 3 game).  Archival occurrences of this particular middle position #7 each time it was a winner after only one day, then wins again nine days later.  And you get this coincidental? Random?  Intermittent  Trend?  Go figure.

                         
                        4/28/1990 7 1
                        5/7/1990 7 9
                        5/14/1990 7 7
                             
                        3/15/1992 7 1
                        3/24/1992 7 9
                        3/27/1992 7 This time 3 and next
                             
                        11/23/1998 7 1
                        12/2/1998 7 9
                        12/5/1998 7 And again 3 completes
                             
                        7/22/2000 7 1
                        7/31/2000 7 9
                        8/15/2000 7 This time 15 but next
                             
                        8/1/2006 7 1
                        8/10/2006 7 9
                        9/13/2006 7 And again 34 completes.
                             
                          

                        This is one of some of those that have historically performed [with expected accuracy] at a higher percentage than probability.  Most of these, isolated digits, will not reoccur with such exactness.  Oh and rarely will there be such accuracy for all three position at any one time.

                          time*treat's avatar - radar

                          United States
                          Member #13130
                          March 30, 2005
                          2171 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: September 22, 2006, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

                          At the other end, an event that occurs much less than its expected frequency can be used as a system or filter too. Wink Here is why some have a love/hate with RNG games. Remember the CA Derby game story? http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/112810

                          Good luck & skill. 

                          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                            guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                            United States
                            Member #41383
                            June 16, 2006
                            1969 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 23, 2006, 12:09 am - IP Logged

                            We need to decide if we are talking PB, or MM, or Pick 3, or what, because we all seem to be discussing odds of different games.

                              time*treat's avatar - radar

                              United States
                              Member #13130
                              March 30, 2005
                              2171 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 23, 2006, 3:03 am - IP Logged

                              Years ago, I did a lot of work on p3/p4. I use those when I post examples because they seem much easier to follow. And I saved a lot of that old code. Some I've posted. Some ideas lend themselves to both p3/p4 & lotto style games.

                              What I work on now is strictly p5 games.

                              I'm leaving those "bogus ball" games alone for now.

                              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.