Welcome Guest
You last visited December 10, 2016, 11:28 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

# probability types

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 10 years ago by guesser.

 Page 2 of 2

United States
Member #4416
April 22, 2004
1075 Posts
Offline
 Posted: September 23, 2006, 6:23 am - IP Logged

Honestly I don't play PB (not available in Ohio) and I rarely play the Mega Millions, so I dont know the particulars of the strategy you mentioned.  But, if I was playing PB with the choices you laid out, I would probably try to anticipate the 26% and choose my numbers from that group.  On the other hand, playing or expecting digits to repeat from X amount of games back is also a good stategy.

What I meant in my post was that if any real mathematical advantage is ever found for winning the games that it will probably have to be something that inexplicitly occurs against the known laws of probability.  And I don't mean particular digits or combinations which have a statistically higher frequency than others, because the probability of everything hitting equally is astronomically small.

What I'm imaging is an event that has a specific and constant probability, but at the same time performs at a much higher percentage than what it has mathemtically been alotted according to its probability.  As an inflated example: say an event has a probability of .05 or 5%. This event should only occur 5% of the time over the long term.  Now imagine that the event actually occurs 10% to 15% of the time—not just in one state, but in every state that has the same game.  Of course finding such an event will most likely never happen - if its even possible.

Thoth,

I think you've touched on the essence of lottery prediction with what you're saying, but it doesn't seem very realistic to expect the laws of probability to defy themselves.

I generally start with the true probabilities associated with the numbers of any given game. My expectation is that all numbers and phenomena will approach those true probabilities over time. Some numbers and events will be very close to that true probability, but most will be over or under to some degree. I generally rule numbers in or out based on the expectation that their performance statistics will approach what probability dictates.

Of course, it also makes sense to recognize what hot or cold numbers are doing in the short run. Even if they are diverging from probability, I try to take advantage of such deviations while that trend is active, but my main criterion for number selection is the expected approach of numbers and events to the true mathematical probabilities over the long run.

Findlay, Ohio
United States
Member #4855
May 28, 2004
400 Posts
Offline
 Posted: September 23, 2006, 10:22 am - IP Logged

Thoth,

I think you've touched on the essence of lottery prediction with what you're saying, but it doesn't seem very realistic to expect the laws of probability to defy themselves.

I generally start with the true probabilities associated with the numbers of any given game. My expectation is that all numbers and phenomena will approach those true probabilities over time. Some numbers and events will be very close to that true probability, but most will be over or under to some degree. I generally rule numbers in or out based on the expectation that their performance statistics will approach what probability dictates.

Of course, it also makes sense to recognize what hot or cold numbers are doing in the short run. Even if they are diverging from probability, I try to take advantage of such deviations while that trend is active, but my main criterion for number selection is the expected approach of numbers and events to the true mathematical probabilities over the long run.

I don't really expect the laws of probability to defy themselves at all, I just have a hope that someday certain such events will be discovered.  So far, everything I have ever tested performs at a percentage which is extremely close to its true probability.  When the probability is very low (higher odds) then measuring them for accuracy can and will takes many more future draws.  The simply probability of a straight Pick 3 for example (.001), 1 in 1000 or .1% is difficult to measure—even over 10,000 draws, because to say each straight would hit .1% of the time would require each of them to hit 10 times within the 10,000 games.  Of course that event itself is not going to happen, its probability is microscopic.

Hot and cold numbers do not truly exist in my opinion, neither do trends for that matter.  There are exact probabilities for digits to become hot or cold and "trends" can be closely tied to them.

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19831 Posts
Offline
 Posted: September 23, 2006, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

Thoth writes:

What I'm imaging is an event that has a specific and constant probability, but at the same time performs at a much higher percentage than what it has mathemtically been alotted according to its probability.  As an inflated example: say an event has a probability of .05 or 5%. This event should only occur 5% of the time over the long term.  Now imagine that the event actually occurs 10% to 15% of the time—not just in one state, but in every state that has the same game.  Of course finding such an event will most likely never happen - if its even possible.

Thoth,

I also look for such events but even though games like MegaMillions and PowerBall are similar, events that happen 10-15% in one game may only happen 5% of less in the other game leading me to think that each game is unique.  Now that MegaMillions is in Ohio I too seldom play PowerBall.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
Member #41383
June 16, 2006
1969 Posts
Offline
 Posted: September 23, 2006, 4:14 pm - IP Logged

I don't really expect the laws of probability to defy themselves at all, I just have a hope that someday certain such events will be discovered.  So far, everything I have ever tested performs at a percentage which is extremely close to its true probability.  When the probability is very low (higher odds) then measuring them for accuracy can and will takes many more future draws.  The simply probability of a straight Pick 3 for example (.001), 1 in 1000 or .1% is difficult to measure—even over 10,000 draws, because to say each straight would hit .1% of the time would require each of them to hit 10 times within the 10,000 games.  Of course that event itself is not going to happen, its probability is microscopic.

Hot and cold numbers do not truly exist in my opinion, neither do trends for that matter.  There are exact probabilities for digits to become hot or cold and "trends" can be closely tied to them.

When it comes down to it, I don't think Hot/Cold exists either, but you have to chalk up the 'chance' to something, I guess.

The Trends I talk about are, if you have had no 'longshots' hit in the last two games, the 'trend' is that one is due, and the historical facts bear that out.

I speak of 'well, this has happened in the last two games, what are the odds of it happening again ?'   Or,   'what are the odds of two real longshots hitting in one game, or two games in a row ?'.     Not very good.   I don't 'trend' to a number or set of numbers, I 'trend' to the likeliehood of something that 'should' or 'should not' happen again, because it either has not happened lately, or has just happened.  I can tell you within a game or two at most of when a longshot is 'due', but I cannot tell what specific number that is, this is where the randomness comes into play.  I can tell you a number or two from the prior two games is likely to hit, but I cannot tell you which one.

I DO apologize for being a broken record.

 Page 2 of 2