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Revealed: How to Win

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 10 years ago by RJOh.

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Posted: October 26, 2006, 11:09 am - IP Logged

A group of university professors and maths experts has revealed the secret of their ?5.2m lottery win. The 17-member syndicate had tried - and failed - for years to land a large sum. Like many people, each member chose their own line of numbers and then waited with crossed their fingers.

But they decided to use their brains and came up with a winning scheme.

The rest of the article is contained in the link. 

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/25102006/140/revealed-win-lottery.html 

    Raven62's avatar - binary
    New Jersey
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    Posted: October 26, 2006, 11:18 am - IP Logged

    "All of the 49 lottery numbers were written on separate pieces of paper and placed in a box."

    They Won with a RNG!

    RNG=Random Number Generator

      Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
      New York, NY
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      Posted: October 26, 2006, 11:29 am - IP Logged

      Good article but I am sure they misrepresented the views of the scholars. No one trained in math or stats would say the odds were reduced "drastically" given the method used. the only way the odds can be reduced "drastically" is toplay large numbers of different combinations. they did not. They played a small number of sets of numbers but played them consistently and religiously.

      As much as some of them would deny it they operated more like a religious person praying year in year out for something than as rational systematicians. 

      Basically it is the same as one person playing one set of six numbers) every game for four years. It finally paid off.

       They had a system but it is their perseverance that paid off.  It could have gone on without a win for another 4 or 14 or 40 years.

       

      Lesson:  

      $$$

        Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        New York, NY
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        Posted: October 26, 2006, 11:35 am - IP Logged

        "All of the 49 lottery numbers were written on separate pieces of paper and placed in a box."

        They Won with a RNG!

        RNG=Random Number Generator

        Not really. Read the entire article.

        It was not random. They determined the number sets.

        At the same time, It was not a system that won. That same system gave 4 years of failure.

        It was a choose-a number (set of numbers)-and-stick with it method.

        $$$

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
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          Posted: October 26, 2006, 11:42 am - IP Logged

          Good analysis Fibonacci.

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
          What grade did your lottery earn?

           

          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!


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            Posted: October 26, 2006, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

            They didn't bet the same lines each week.  They drew the numbers from the box each week.

            It wasn't purely random because the numbers weren't returned into the box after each completed line. 

            It demonstrates the advantages of using a regular pool because of the low out-of-pocket costs and leveraging of the odds.  Each member bet about 200 pounds over the course of the experiment.

              Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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              Posted: October 26, 2006, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

              Let's take a closer look at what they did. This is my understanding based on the UK article. In case any one wants to try it! Big Grin

              The Lottery is a 6/49 number lottery. The syndicate has 17 persons. They need 17 tickets. Here is how they generated the 17 tickets

              PHASE I 

              1. They put the 49 numbers on slips of paper. 

              2. Each person dipped and selected 6 pieces of paper-six numbers.

              Note: 6*8=48...so only eight persons can select from this pool...and each subsequent pewrson who dips has a smaller pool to pick from. The eight person doesn't have much of a "choice"---there are only 7 slips of paper to select 6 from.

              3. After the 8 persons have chosen their six numbers/slips of paper/number..there is one paper/number left

              4. They write down the sets of six(6) numbers---eight (8)sets in all 

               PHASE II

              5. They Start another round beginning with the last number left from Phase I

              6. They now have another 8 numbers

              Total: 16 sets of numbers (6 in each set) 

               PHASE III 

              7. They go for one last  round

              Note: Only one (1) person gets to choose 5 numbers (plus the one left from Phase II) from a pool of 48. We would need to know what system they used to decide who picks firs and last to analyse even more closely

              They now have all 17 person with their set of six numbers...

               These are the tickets they will play until....

               --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

              Article: Syndicate leader Barry Waterhouse said: "We just weren't winning with the numbers being picked.

              "So we thought of a different method which would mean all 49 numbers would be used.

              "We just had to stick with the numbers and we knew we would win eventually."-emphases suppllied

              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

              He is talking nonsense. They could never KNOW. They acted on faith--like the church-going "illiterates" and "ignoramuses" they despise so much. It is an embarassment for them as teachers of logic and reason. A rich embarassment but an embarassment nonetheless. "I'd rather be rich than rational/right" ought to be their motto. I concur.

              $$$

                Raven62's avatar - binary
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                Posted: October 26, 2006, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

                Let's take a closer look at what they did. This is my understanding based on the UK article. In case any one wants to try it! Big Grin

                The Lottery is a 6/49 number lottery. The syndicate has 17 persons. They need 17 tickets. Here is how they generated the 17 tickets

                PHASE I 

                1. They put the 49 numbers on slips of paper. 

                2. Each person dipped and selected 6 pieces of paper-six numbers.

                Note: 6*8=48...so only eight persons can select from this pool...and each subsequent pewrson who dips has a smaller pool to pick from. The eight person doesn't have much of a "choice"---there are only 7 slips of paper to select 6 from.

                3. After the 8 persons have chosen their six numbers/slips of paper/number..there is one paper/number left

                4. They write down the sets of six(6) numbers---eight (8)sets in all 

                 PHASE II

                5. They Start another round beginning with the last number left from Phase I

                6. They now have another 8 numbers

                Total: 16 sets of numbers (6 in each set) 

                 PHASE III 

                7. They go for one last  round

                Note: Only one (1) person gets to choose 5 numbers (plus the one left from Phase II) from a pool of 48. We would need to know what system they used to decide who picks firs and last to analyse even more closely

                They now have all 17 person with their set of six numbers...

                 These are the tickets they will play until....

                 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

                Article: Syndicate leader Barry Waterhouse said: "We just weren't winning with the numbers being picked.

                "So we thought of a different method which would mean all 49 numbers would be used.

                "We just had to stick with the numbers and we knew we would win eventually."-emphases suppllied

                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

                He is talking nonsense. They could never KNOW. They acted on faith--like the church-going "illiterates" and "ignoramuses" they despise so much. It is an embarassment for them as teachers of logic and reason. A rich embarassment but an embarassment nonetheless. "I'd rather be rich than rational/right" ought to be their motto. I concur.

                Were the Numbers selected randomly from the box?

                  Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                  Posted: October 26, 2006, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

                  Were the Numbers selected randomly from the box?

                  Since they have training in probability I assume they wopuld know how to simulate a random selection.

                  The whole project  as described in the article was not random. They wanted everyone to have different sets of  numbers. They did not want duplicate sets. To be random you cannot determine this before hand.

                   It was not random. 

                   To be random they would have had to:

                  1. Have 17 bags with 49 pieces of paper having the 49 numbers or

                  Each person would choose their 6 numbers from the bag, note their numbers then put the numbers back and the next person would choose her 6 numbers.

                  Once you determine/arrange/plan beforehand the outcomes or the types of outcomes you want you are not performing a random operation.

                  $$$


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                    Posted: October 26, 2006, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

                    Since they have training in probability I assume they wopuld know how to simulate a random selection.

                    The whole project  as described in the article was not random. They wanted everyone to have different sets of  numbers. They did not want duplicate sets. To be random you cannot determine this before hand.

                     It was not random. 

                     To be random they would have had to:

                    1. Have 17 bags with 49 pieces of paper having the 49 numbers or

                    Each person would choose their 6 numbers from the bag, note their numbers then put the numbers back and the next person would choose her 6 numbers.

                    Once you determine/arrange/plan beforehand the outcomes or the types of outcomes you want you are not performing a random operation.


                    The quotes in the article could've been interpreted as either using the same set of tickets for four years or using the same system to select a different set of lines each week for four years.  When one refers to working a system repeatedly, it's usually in reference to a process and not a fixed set of numbers. 

                     

                    [quote] 

                    "We just had to stick with the numbers and we knew we would win eventually."

                     The system was used for four years

                    [/quote] 

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                      Posted: October 28, 2006, 1:35 am - IP Logged

                      Not really. Read the entire article.

                      It was not random. They determined the number sets.

                      At the same time, It was not a system that won. That same system gave 4 years of failure.

                      It was a choose-a number (set of numbers)-and-stick with it method.

                      Sure it was random. They just used a different set of rules than you expected. First they randomly picked 6 numbers from 49, then they randomly picked 6 numbers from 43, then 6 from 37, and so on. Each individual draw randomly selected the pool that the next 6 numbers would be drawn from.  They eliminated a lot of combination from those they could have picked, but the ones they picked were still chosen randomly.

                      As far as their perseverance, they wouldn't have won if they'd stopped playing after the previous draw, but it was luck that paid off, not the perseverence. And with odds of nearly 14 million to 1 it could have gone on for a hell of a lot longer than 14 years. If there are two drawings per week the expectation would be to win once every 8,235.3 years. 

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                        Posted: November 3, 2006, 10:40 am - IP Logged

                        By covering all the numbers twice, at least they knew if they didn't match one twelve times they would have a match two or better.  Covering all the numbers isn't a bad strategy and it's affordable.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking