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statistics and odds of winning in games that don't match for me.

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colonia, nj
United States
Member #46088
September 3, 2006
48 Posts
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Posted: October 29, 2006, 2:52 pm - IP Logged

The "Lifetime Riches" game # 540 was  produced with 8,396,880 tickets and included three (3) top prizes of "$5,000 a  week for life."
Distribution of tickets to the New Jersey Lottery's  approximately 6,000 retailers began on March 23, 2005.  As of September 26, 2006 8,013,142 of the tickets have been reported sold and 200,580 tickets  remain available for sale at retail locations. 
The remaining 349,678  tickets were either in the warehouse  or in retailer inventory and not available for sale.  Of the three top  prizesavailable in the game, all have been claimed and paid.  Per:  Public Info  NJL  10/6/06----
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Lottery is claiming an odd amount of 8,396,880 tickets  printed.  Thatwould negate the odds above.  In order for other  tickets over the initial offering of 8,100.00 another 2,710,000  would need  to be printed to satisfy theabove odds of 1 top winner in each 2,700,000  tickets produced or 3 topwinners in 8,100,000 tickets.  In a batch  of 8,100,000 there are 1,363,968prizes and
6,736,032 non winning tickets.  That is a 5.938 ratio or 6:1 ratio. 
If they are claiming that  8,396,880 were printed to satisfy the 3 top tierprizes that
is 1 prize in  every 2,798,960 tickets printed and I doubt if someonewere  going to  calculate and print an odd total of tickets.
Also NJL is claiming one top prize winner, if I recall  September  2005,
months after the inception, one winner in July 2006 as the second winner.  My sister had and lost the 3rd ticket the first week of  August.  and whatthey are claiming as the third paid ticket was Sept  2, 2006 in Summit.  Now August 13, 2006 the NJL web site instant  games still had 3 top tier winners indicated, on August 14, 2006 it went to 2  remaining winners, butsuddenly there were
0 -zero remaining winners.  On  August 13, there were still 13
remaining $1000 winners now there are 10  remaining  on that level. 

Their figures:

printed 8,396,880  initial game

 

but'

  200,580 unsold

8,013,142 sold

  349,678 in warehouse or unavail for sale

8,563,4000_________________________

463,400 difference      over initial offering 8,100,000

or 165,580 over claim they say of 8,396,880

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Approximately 8.1 million “LIFETIME RICHES” tickets are initially planned in this game. The New Jersey Lottery reserves the right to subsequently increase this quantity of tickets. Should additional tickets be introduced, prize levels and frequency of winning will be consistent with the following disclosures:
In the “LIFETIME RICHES” Instant Game, New Jersey allocates approximately 65% of the gross receipts to prizes. On the average, better than 1 ticket in 6 wins a prize. In a game of 8,100,000 tickets there are 999,000 prizes of $5; 191,700 prizes of $10; 95,580 prizes of $20; 59,670 prizes of $50; 10,665 prizes of $100; 1,296 prizes of $500; 54 prizes of $1,000 and 3 prizes of “$5,000 A WEEK FOR LIFE”. Odds and number of winners may vary based on sales, distribution and claims.

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They would have had to print another 2,700,000 tickets not an additional almost 500,000.  or it dilutes the brass ring of 1 tier prize per every 2,700,000 tickets.

I hope my math is correct.  Yes, you said my plight was a dead horse, but it doesn't stop the stink.