Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 4, 2016, 9:25 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Help JADELottery

Topic closed. 35 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Thoth.

Page 1 of 3
41
PrintE-mailLink
Thoth's avatar - binary
Findlay, Ohio
United States
Member #4855
May 28, 2004
400 Posts
Offline
Posted: November 11, 2006, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

Do you know a formula for finding the probability of the same boxed number being drawn in several states over about a one month period of time?  Bryan made the following post and I can't seem to come up with a true probability for it:

"For 30 days, this combo has not gone more than 3 days without being drawn. That is incredible...As matter of fact, it has almost hit solid for the last 3 months...wow!"

 

 Draw Date  State  Game  Results 
Wed, Nov 8, 2006DelawareMidday 31-0-4
Wed, Nov 8, 2006IllinoisDaily 30-4-1
Wed, Nov 8, 2006IowaPick 30-4-1
Mon, Nov 6, 2006MichiganDaily 30-4-1
Sun, Nov 5, 2006MissouriPick 30-1-4
Sat, Nov 4, 2006CaliforniaMidday 30-4-1
Thu, Nov 2, 2006Western CanadaPick 30-4-1
Mon, Oct 30, 2006KentuckyMidday Pick 31-0-4
Sun, Oct 29, 2006MissouriMidday Pick 30-4-1
Sat, Oct 28, 2006PennsylvaniaDaily Number0-4-1
Thu, Oct 26, 2006CaliforniaMidday 30-4-1
Thu, Oct 26, 2006IllinoisDaily 31-4-0
Thu, Oct 26, 2006IowaPick 31-4-0
Tue, Oct 24, 2006QuebecLa Quotidienne 34-0-1
Mon, Oct 23, 2006GeorgiaMidday 30-4-1
Fri, Oct 20, 2006Puerto RicoPega 31-4-0
Thu, Oct 19, 2006WashingtonDaily0-4-1
Wed, Oct 18, 2006ConnecticutPlay 30-1-4
Tue, Oct 17, 2006MinnesotaDaily 31-4-0
Tue, Oct 17, 2006TennesseeCash 31-0-4
Sat, Oct 14, 2006New YorkMidday Numbers4-0-1
Thu, Oct 12, 2006New MexicoPick 30-1-4
Wed, Oct 11, 2006Puerto RicoPega 34-1-0

 

 

I think there was a combined total of 979 games played between the first hit during the EVE draw on Oct 11th and the last hit for the EVE draw on Nov 8th.  There were 1000^979 total possibile outcomes that could have transpired over the course of those drawings. Of that total amount, there should be (1000^979)-(994^979)=X permuations that contain 014 boxed AT LEAST ONCE.   How do I find out exactly how many of those X possibilities contain exactly 21 occurrences of 014 boxed? 

Note: I removed the two Iowa hits from the 23 listed above because they use the Illinois Pick 3 to derive their number and dont really count.

For much smaller numbers, I usually list the partitions (combo in basic form) to get the arrangements and permutations in order to find the true probability.  I did this once for a Pick 22 Scenario (...like pick 3 and pick 4 except 22 at a time lol) ...and there were 804 basic combos totaling 10^22 total permutations = 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

There's gotta be a more practiclal way to do this for this situation, any help/lesson would greatly be appreciated!

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
    United States
    Member #21
    December 7, 2001
    3675 Posts
    Online
    Posted: November 11, 2006, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

    Thoth,

    Just replying to say I'm working on the problem you stated, "Do you know a formula for finding the probability of the same boxed number being drawn in several states over about a one month period of time?"

    To understand this a little better, I think you are looking for the probability of successfully matching any single boxed permutation in several different pick 3 drawings per day for about 30 drawings.

    Does this sound about right?

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
    Douglas Paul Smallish
    Jehocifer

      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
      The Quantum Master
      West Concord, MN
      United States
      Member #21
      December 7, 2001
      3675 Posts
      Online
      Posted: November 11, 2006, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

      Also, think I've seen something like this in another post, but I can remember where. Can you post a link if you know?

      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
      Use at your own risk.

      Order is a Subset of Chaos
      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
      Wisdom is Not Censored
      Douglas Paul Smallish
      Jehocifer

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
        Member #21
        December 7, 2001
        3675 Posts
        Online
        Posted: November 11, 2006, 11:56 pm - IP Logged

        Nevermind, found it, Check this out...

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
          The Quantum Master
          West Concord, MN
          United States
          Member #21
          December 7, 2001
          3675 Posts
          Online
          Posted: November 12, 2006, 12:37 am - IP Logged

          Also, for clarity, you are referring the permutations related to the basic form A B C, not including the basic forms A A B and A B B?

          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
          Use at your own risk.

          Order is a Subset of Chaos
          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
          Wisdom is Not Censored
          Douglas Paul Smallish
          Jehocifer

            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
            United States
            Member #21
            December 7, 2001
            3675 Posts
            Online
            Posted: November 12, 2006, 4:49 am - IP Logged

            Thoth,

            After thinking about this a while and looking over some of the other posts, I think I have a solution. In order to solve this problem, I had to approach it from a different view. First, the fact that the numbers are being drawn by different states at different times on different days does not matter. Only the draw count of how many selections matter. A sample is a sample, regardless of it's source. If we look at the inverse of what you are doing by state, we can also ask the question, "What is the probability that 22 bets place on a single draw in a state are the same single boxed permutation?" There many hundreds to thousands of bets place per day by many people, just like there are many hundreds of draws per month to many thousands of draws per year by many states. With that said, here's what I came up with. First we need to find the average number of hits based on some sample count. Next, we need to find the standard deviation from that average to calculate a probability of the number of hits that may deviate from the average.

            Boxed-6 Hits Probability Base on Sample Size

                y = (1 / Ö0.012 p s) e -((x - 0.006 s)²/(0.012 s)

                  x - number of hits based on a given sample size
                  s - number of samples

                  y - probability that x number of hits will have happen by s number of samples

                    note: to get percent probability multiply y by 100%

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3675 Posts
              Online
              Posted: November 12, 2006, 5:10 am - IP Logged

              Thoth,

              After thinking about this a while and looking over some of the other posts, I think I have a solution. In order to solve this problem, I had to approach it from a different view. First, the fact that the numbers are being drawn by different states at different times on different days does not matter. Only the draw count of how many selections matter. A sample is a sample, regardless of it's source. If we look at the inverse of what you are doing by state, we can also ask the question, "What is the probability that 22 bets place on a single draw in a state are the same single boxed permutation?" There many hundreds to thousands of bets place per day by many people, just like there are many hundreds of draws per month to many thousands of draws per year by many states. With that said, here's what I came up with. First we need to find the average number of hits based on some sample count. Next, we need to find the standard deviation from that average to calculate a probability of the number of hits that may deviate from the average.

              Boxed-6 Hits Probability Base on Sample Size

                  y = (1 / Ö0.012 p s) e -((x - 0.006 s)²/(0.012 s)

                    x - number of hits based on a given sample size
                    s - number of samples

                    y - probability that x number of hits will have happen by s number of samples

                      note: to get percent probability multiply y by 100%

              The equation I posted was derived this way.

                  Normal Distribution -  y = (1 / s Ö2 p) e -((x - m)² / s²)

                  m = (6 / 1000)s = 0.006 s

                  s = Öm = Ö0.006 s

              Plugging in the values gives this equation.

                  y = (1 / Ö0.012 p s) e -((x - 0.006 s)²/(0.012 s)

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
                Member #21
                December 7, 2001
                3675 Posts
                Online
                Posted: November 12, 2006, 5:18 am - IP Logged

                The equation I posted was derived this way.

                    Normal Distribution -  y = (1 / s Ö2 p) e -((x - m)² / s²)

                    m = (6 / 1000)s = 0.006 s

                    s = Öm = Ö0.006 s

                Plugging in the values gives this equation.

                    y = (1 / Ö0.012 p s) e -((x - 0.006 s)²/(0.012 s)

                Based on that equation here's a table for 979 draws.

                 

                Number of hits that might happen for a single box-6

                Percent Probability that a single box-6 will produce the given hits for 979 draws

                0

                0.87

                1

                2.18

                2

                4.59

                3

                8.15

                4

                12.21

                5

                15.42

                6

                16.44

                7

                14.78

                8

                11.20

                9

                7.16

                10

                3.86

                11

                1.76

                12

                0.67

                13

                0.22

                14

                0.06

                15

                0.01

                16

                0.00

                17

                0.00

                18

                0.00

                19

                0.00

                20

                0.00

                21

                0.00

                22

                0.00

                23

                0.00

                24

                0.00

                25

                0.00

                26

                0.00

                27

                0.00

                28

                0.00

                29

                0.00

                30

                0.00

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

                  JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                  The Quantum Master
                  West Concord, MN
                  United States
                  Member #21
                  December 7, 2001
                  3675 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: November 12, 2006, 5:34 am - IP Logged

                  Based on what you were looking for and what we now know.

                  There is a 0.00000000400974521014437 %  probability of 22 boxed-6 draws being the same during those 979 draws.

                  Put another way, it's 4.00974521014437 n% (nano-percent) probability of 22 boxed-6 draws being the same during those 979 draws.

                  Or, a 1 in 249,392,404 chance of this happening during those 979 draws.

                  Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                  Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                  Use at your own risk.

                  Order is a Subset of Chaos
                  Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                  Wisdom is Not Censored
                  Douglas Paul Smallish
                  Jehocifer

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
                    West Concord, MN
                    United States
                    Member #21
                    December 7, 2001
                    3675 Posts
                    Online
                    Posted: November 12, 2006, 5:37 am - IP Logged

                    Based on what you were looking for and what we now know.

                    There is a 0.00000000400974521014437 %  probability of 22 boxed-6 draws being the same during those 979 draws.

                    Put another way, it's 4.00974521014437 n% (nano-percent) probability of 22 boxed-6 draws being the same during those 979 draws.

                    Or, a 1 in 249,392,404 chance of this happening during those 979 draws.

                    If this is happening on a regular basis, I'd say something funny is going on and needs further investiagation.

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

                      United States
                      Member #4416
                      April 22, 2004
                      1075 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: November 12, 2006, 7:38 am - IP Logged

                      I certainly don't consider myself to be a mathematician, but I'm counting 1569 draws from October 11th through November 8th.

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
                        Member #21
                        December 7, 2001
                        3675 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: November 12, 2006, 7:52 am - IP Logged

                        Based on what you were looking for and what we now know.

                        There is a 0.00000000400974521014437 %  probability of 22 boxed-6 draws being the same during those 979 draws.

                        Put another way, it's 4.00974521014437 n% (nano-percent) probability of 22 boxed-6 draws being the same during those 979 draws.

                        Or, a 1 in 249,392,404 chance of this happening during those 979 draws.

                        finger check on that last one, it's actually 1 in 24,939,240,465 for 979 draws.

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer

                          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                          The Quantum Master
                          West Concord, MN
                          United States
                          Member #21
                          December 7, 2001
                          3675 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: November 12, 2006, 7:56 am - IP Logged

                          I certainly don't consider myself to be a mathematician, but I'm counting 1569 draws from October 11th through November 8th.

                          If that is the correct draws, then it's 0.00288490863079851 %, or 2.88490863079851 m% (milli-percent), or 1 in 34,663.

                          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                          Use at your own risk.

                          Order is a Subset of Chaos
                          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                          Wisdom is Not Censored
                          Douglas Paul Smallish
                          Jehocifer

                            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                            The Quantum Master
                            West Concord, MN
                            United States
                            Member #21
                            December 7, 2001
                            3675 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: November 12, 2006, 8:02 am - IP Logged

                            Draws =

                            1569

                            Number of hits that might happen for a single box-6

                            Percent Probability that a single box-6 will produce the given hits

                            0

                            0.12

                            1

                            0.30

                            2

                            0.70

                            3

                            1.46

                            4

                            2.74

                            5

                            4.62

                            6

                            7.00

                            7

                            9.54

                            8

                            11.69

                            9

                            12.88

                            10

                            12.77

                            11

                            11.38

                            12

                            9.12

                            13

                            6.57

                            14

                            4.26

                            15

                            2.48

                            16

                            1.30

                            17

                            0.61

                            18

                            0.26

                            19

                            0.10

                            20

                            0.03

                            21

                            0.01

                            22

                            0.00

                            23

                            0.00

                            24

                            0.00

                            25

                            0.00

                            26

                            0.00

                            27

                            0.00

                            28

                            0.00

                            29

                            0.00

                            30

                            0.00

                            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                            Use at your own risk.

                            Order is a Subset of Chaos
                            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                            Wisdom is Not Censored
                            Douglas Paul Smallish
                            Jehocifer

                              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                              The Quantum Master
                              West Concord, MN
                              United States
                              Member #21
                              December 7, 2001
                              3675 Posts
                              Online
                              Posted: November 12, 2006, 8:16 am - IP Logged

                              i need sleep...  i hope this answers the question...  i think there was a question, somewhere... just too... sleep... answer..question... zzzzz.

                              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                              Use at your own risk.

                              Order is a Subset of Chaos
                              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                              Wisdom is Not Censored
                              Douglas Paul Smallish
                              Jehocifer