Do you know a formula for finding the probability of the same boxed number being drawn in several states over about a one month period of time? Bryan made the following post and I can't seem to come up with a true probability for it:
"For 30 days, this combo has not gone more than 3 days without being drawn. That is incredible...As matter of fact, it has almost hit solid for the last 3 months...wow!"
| Draw Date | State | Game | Results |
|---|
| Wed, Nov 8, 2006 | Delaware | Midday 3 | 1-0-4 |
| Wed, Nov 8, 2006 | Illinois | Daily 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Wed, Nov 8, 2006 | Iowa | Pick 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Mon, Nov 6, 2006 | Michigan | Daily 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Sun, Nov 5, 2006 | Missouri | Pick 3 | 0-1-4 |
| Sat, Nov 4, 2006 | California | Midday 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Thu, Nov 2, 2006 | Western Canada | Pick 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Mon, Oct 30, 2006 | Kentucky | Midday Pick 3 | 1-0-4 |
| Sun, Oct 29, 2006 | Missouri | Midday Pick 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Sat, Oct 28, 2006 | Pennsylvania | Daily Number | 0-4-1 |
| Thu, Oct 26, 2006 | California | Midday 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Thu, Oct 26, 2006 | Illinois | Daily 3 | 1-4-0 |
| Thu, Oct 26, 2006 | Iowa | Pick 3 | 1-4-0 |
| Tue, Oct 24, 2006 | Quebec | La Quotidienne 3 | 4-0-1 |
| Mon, Oct 23, 2006 | Georgia | Midday 3 | 0-4-1 |
| Fri, Oct 20, 2006 | Puerto Rico | Pega 3 | 1-4-0 |
| Thu, Oct 19, 2006 | Washington | Daily | 0-4-1 |
| Wed, Oct 18, 2006 | Connecticut | Play 3 | 0-1-4 |
| Tue, Oct 17, 2006 | Minnesota | Daily 3 | 1-4-0 |
| Tue, Oct 17, 2006 | Tennessee | Cash 3 | 1-0-4 |
| Sat, Oct 14, 2006 | New York | Midday Numbers | 4-0-1 |
| Thu, Oct 12, 2006 | New Mexico | Pick 3 | 0-1-4 |
| Wed, Oct 11, 2006 | Puerto Rico | Pega 3 | 4-1-0 |
I think there was a combined total of 979 games played between the first hit during the EVE draw on Oct 11th and the last hit for the EVE draw on Nov 8th. There were 1000^979 total possibile outcomes that could have transpired over the course of those drawings. Of that total amount, there should be (1000^979)-(994^979)=X permuations that contain 014 boxed AT LEAST ONCE. How do I find out exactly how many of those X possibilities contain exactly 21 occurrences of 014 boxed?
Note: I removed the two Iowa hits from the 23 listed above because they use the Illinois Pick 3 to derive their number and dont really count.
For much smaller numbers, I usually list the partitions (combo in basic form) to get the arrangements and permutations in order to find the true probability. I did this once for a Pick 22 Scenario (...like pick 3 and pick 4 except 22 at a time lol) ...and there were 804 basic combos totaling 10^22 total permutations = 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
There's gotta be a more practiclal way to do this for this situation, any help/lesson would greatly be appreciated!
