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Odds/Number Of Tickets

Topic closed. 24 replies. Last post 10 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Thoth's avatar - binary
Findlay, Ohio
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Posted: November 30, 2006, 4:07 pm - IP Logged

Thoth

Justxploring tracks Florida winners and I track Illinois Little Lotto. We've both posted about not only most winners being Quick Picks, but also most of them being from Miami and Chicago (granted, larger population bases).

It's lottery, there is no "real chance of winning", and the fact that most winners are indeed quick picks kind of blows away anything about "consistently".

Someomne plays every drawing for 10 years and never gets more than three numbers, somsone plays for the first time and hits multi-millions, the luck factor counts more than anything else. And it happens all the time, if anything is consistent, that's it.

The whole point about "consistently" playing one or more tickets is to try and deture the luck factor...not that there is anyone who can honestly say that they don't need it for these kind of games. 

Point is, the larger lotteries are most often won with quick picks because the amount of different combinations sold via quick pick represents the largest portion/fraction of different combinations being played against the total amount of combinations which are possible in any given drawing.  So it's only expected that most winners will come from the group of qick pick players.  Out of all the people who do buy quick picks, what's each players individual chance of winning?  He's not any more likely to win just because he plays quick picks.   I agree that the luck factor is vital to winning the games.  The chart I listed for the 10% chances still require you to be pretty lucky to win within those time frames. 

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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    Posted: November 30, 2006, 7:33 pm - IP Logged

     Oh yeah, how true. I remember one of the big Mega Millions hits earlier this year, when they interviewed the woman who had the winner she said she only plays when the jackpot is over $100,000,000! 

    I understand the "let everybody else build it up" approach, but you know, as regular player we have to look at that as "Where's the justice?"

    As Mrs. Coin toss says, "There is no justice in lotto, it's all up to the whims of the "Lottery fairy".

    Bang Head

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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      Posted: November 30, 2006, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

      Thoth

      Your chart assumes the same matrix, for one thing.

      There was a thread here awhile back where someone quoted a mathematician who said if someone played 11 tickets for every drawing they would be guaranteed to hit- if they could play them for 483 years.  

      Really? That's all there is to it?  483 years is all? Let's see.....no....wait.....I think I'd run out of money by then.  LOL

      ============

      How can you tell if a politician is lying?

      Answer: His lips are moving.

        Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
        Wisconsin
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        Posted: November 30, 2006, 10:11 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks Badger, yeah I honed in on Mega

         elmoo

         Also remember you can never assume a solo hit....So, even if you overcome those odds, then the "money odds", i.e., the jackpot gets split multiple ways....

         People here have actually talked about borrowing enough money to play all the possible combinations in a pick 5 game- assuming no one else would hit the same drawing when they did that. 

        So let's say they borrow $40,000 - and then that night a $200,000 jackpot is split 6 ways - so they hit 5 for 5 and are minus $7,000. Not a real great idea.

        (Borrowing the moey to play Pick 5 is ridiculous bit obtainable for some people....borrowing the money to cover the combos in a Pick 6 can only be called "Once upon a time" 

        Yeah, our Pick 5/31 game here is paramutuel, with a jp that rolls every day no one hits it. And it seems more often than not, when someone hits the jp so does at least one other player.  We have a Pick 6/39 game with a jp of 350K, and it doesn't become parimutuel until (as I recall) there are five jp winners on the same night. Far as I know, that has never happened yet.  But generally, someone does hit that jp once a month.

        ============

        How can you tell if a politician is lying?

        Answer: His lips are moving.

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          Posted: December 1, 2006, 2:42 am - IP Logged

          Thanks for the replies everyone - I didn't know that my question would generate so many responses!  I know that no matter how you cut it, luck is the big factor in this.  Most of the games have such ridiculous odds that I only play a little just to try to hit the jackpot, but I was just wondering how to maximize my chances.  So say Megabucks has a jackpot of 1,000,000 and has odds of roughly 1:5,000,000 and Megamillions has a minimum jackpot of 12,000,000 but the odds are 1:175,000,000.  I still play megamillions "just in case" but I put most of my lotto money towards Megabucks because if I actually did win megabucks, I wouldn't say no to the "small" prize (compared to megamillions!).

          My brother loves $10 scratch tickets only because he can know instantly if he won, but I was trying to figure out if he put his $10 to 10 megabucks tickets vs $10 for 1 scratch ticket if he would have better odds if say both had $1,000,000 jackpots.  I figure it never hurts to give luck some help.

            floridian's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing

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            Posted: December 1, 2006, 9:51 am - IP Logged

            The whole point about "consistently" playing one or more tickets is to try and deture the luck factor...not that there is anyone who can honestly say that they don't need it for these kind of games. 

            Point is, the larger lotteries are most often won with quick picks because the amount of different combinations sold via quick pick represents the largest portion/fraction of different combinations being played against the total amount of combinations which are possible in any given drawing.  So it's only expected that most winners will come from the group of qick pick players.  Out of all the people who do buy quick picks, what's each players individual chance of winning?  He's not any more likely to win just because he plays quick picks.   I agree that the luck factor is vital to winning the games.  The chart I listed for the 10% chances still require you to be pretty lucky to win within those time frames. 

            This was a great post.  I am really starting to understand the issue of quick picks better.  It is almost as if the quick picks represent one guy buying millions of tickets and of course eventually he will win because of the volume he is buying.

            Florida does have a lot of quick pick winners, probably in the 50 to 60% range.  There are also almost 15 million persons now in Florida with at least 1,000 plus new residents every day.  At least that is what the tourist bureau says.  So as you can see lots of Lottery tickets purchased.  Based on the quick pick winning percentages there are a lot of lotto customers that let the machine do the picking for them.

            In the scheme of things, there are really not that many real lottery players.  I am meaning people that have a planned strategy during play.  I realize the LP is huge getting up to the 50,000 member mark.  But when you think of the millions of people playing lottery out there we are a very, very small percentage.  Further, all LP members are not just from America so that makes the percentage even smaller.

            Floridian

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              Posted: December 2, 2006, 2:55 am - IP Logged

              Does anyone know how the number of tickets you buy for a game affect your odds?  For example, the MA Megabucks game is roughly 1 in 5,000,000 (for simplicity) for the jackpot.  If a $10 scratch ticket offers $1,000,000 with odds of winning 1 in 2,000,000, if I went and spent the $10 on 10 tickets for Megabucks, would that mean the chance of winning the jackpot in Megabucks with 10 tickets would be roughly 1 in 500,000?

              I know this is a simplification and ignores all the smaller prizes you could win in both, but I'm just wondering if I'm thinking correctly.  And regardless of the odds, you still need luck to be on your side since I haven't won a straight in P4 with odds of only 1:1,000!

              The basic probability is really pretty simple, but that doesn't stop a number of people from getting it wrong.

              A few people will tell you over and over that there is only one winning combination as if that's the only thing that matters. If that was true you'd be just as likely to win MM or PB as pick 3, since all three have only 1 winning combination for each drawing. The probability of winning any given game is determined by the number of possible combinations AND how many chances you have of matching the combination, and the formula is simple:

              probability of matching the winning combination = (number of possible combinations) / (number of chances to match the winning combination) 

              The numbers are bigger, but that's the math you learned in 3rd grade. If you have two chances to match the winning combination you're twice as likely to match it as you are with only one chance, and 10 tickets gives you 10 times the chances.

              $10 spent on Megabucks would give you a 1 in 500,000 chance of winning, so you'd be 4 times more likely to win that than the $10 scratcher with a 1 in 2 million chance. Of course if all you wanted was a better chance of winning you'd spend your $10 on pick 3 and have a 1 in 100 chance of winning. If you're sensible you'll also consider how much you would win. If you're 4 times as likely to win 1/4 as much there is no real difference.  With the chance that others will share the winnings,  the winnings would have to be a bit more than 1/4 as much to be equivalent, but even if it's the same amount of money there's still a chance it could be shared 10 ways.

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                Posted: December 5, 2006, 1:51 am - IP Logged

                That's what I originally thought - that $10 spent on 1 1:5,000,000 Megabucks game would bring my odds down to 1:500,000.  Granted 1:500,000 is still a large number so it doesn't guarantee me anything.  We were also talking about the fact that for scratchers, you have to be in the right store at the right time to pick up the winning ticket unlike pick 3/4/5/6s where you can purchase the winning ticket at any store, but that's a topic for another forum altogether!

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: December 5, 2006, 9:53 am - IP Logged


                  Honestly people, the $10 would be much better off spent on this:

                  The Lottery Book: The Truth Behind the Numbers (Paperback)
                  by Don Catlin

                  The Lottery Book, The Truth Behind the Numbers

                   (Actually you can get it on amazon for $2.85)

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                    Posted: December 5, 2006, 3:26 pm - IP Logged

                    That's what I originally thought - that $10 spent on 1 1:5,000,000 Megabucks game would bring my odds down to 1:500,000.  Granted 1:500,000 is still a large number so it doesn't guarantee me anything.  We were also talking about the fact that for scratchers, you have to be in the right store at the right time to pick up the winning ticket unlike pick 3/4/5/6s where you can purchase the winning ticket at any store, but that's a topic for another forum altogether!

                    The right store is an illusion. You have to buy the right ticket. If 1 out of 2,000,000 tickets wins a jackpot than *any* ticket you buy has a 1 in 2,000,000 chance of winning a jackpot. Probability doesn't know anything about different stores, and a ticket is simply a winner or it isn't.