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Estimates of the highest possible MM, PB jackpots this year.

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 11 years ago by dvdiva.

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Thread Starter
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Posted: December 4, 2006, 11:10 am - IP Logged

2006 is winding down to a close.  Both MM and PB have relatively low jackpots, sigh...

Both have 8 more drawings in 2006.  If the jackpot rises without being won in either case, here is the size I estimate they will be.

In MM we are starting with a reset drawing.  The last draw of the year would be an 8th draw.    The average annuity value for 8th draws is $82M.  My modeling program suggests an annuity value of $77M and a cash value of $45.6M.  The probability of the jackpot getting to this point without being won is 51.5%, if my model is correct.

In the case of PB we are about to have a second draw in a run.  Thus PB could end up in a ninth draw position if not won. 

The average jackpot for a ninth run is $105M advertised, annuity.   My modeling program predicts a jackpot of $107M advertised annuity, and a cash value of $52.8M.  The probability of this occurring is 38.5%, if my model is close.


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    Posted: December 4, 2006, 11:56 am - IP Logged

    Good luck on your estimates Prob988. PB Jackpot has rolled already.

      floridian's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing

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      Posted: December 4, 2006, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

      2006 is winding down to a close.  Both MM and PB have relatively low jackpots, sigh...

      Both have 8 more drawings in 2006.  If the jackpot rises without being won in either case, here is the size I estimate they will be.

      In MM we are starting with a reset drawing.  The last draw of the year would be an 8th draw.    The average annuity value for 8th draws is $82M.  My modeling program suggests an annuity value of $77M and a cash value of $45.6M.  The probability of the jackpot getting to this point without being won is 51.5%, if my model is correct.

      In the case of PB we are about to have a second draw in a run.  Thus PB could end up in a ninth draw position if not won. 

      The average jackpot for a ninth run is $105M advertised, annuity.   My modeling program predicts a jackpot of $107M advertised annuity, and a cash value of $52.8M.  The probability of this occurring is 38.5%, if my model is close.

      Since neither one of these is available in my state of Florida with the possible exception of playing online, which I do not participate in at this time; am I correct in saying you are projecting the largest possible pot providing that no one hits until the last draw of the year?

      I was wondering if you know what was the lartest pot won in these two games this year excluding your final game assessment.

      I should follow these closer but as I said they are not played in Florida.  That is probably not a very good excuse but it is all I have.

      Floridian 

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        Posted: December 4, 2006, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

        floridian...here is what I have for the largest jackpots for 2006 for these two games:

         

              MM      $270 million

              PB       $365 Million (overall record)

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          Posted: December 4, 2006, 12:47 pm - IP Logged

          Since neither one of these is available in my state of Florida with the possible exception of playing online, which I do not participate in at this time; am I correct in saying you are projecting the largest possible pot providing that no one hits until the last draw of the year?

          I was wondering if you know what was the lartest pot won in these two games this year excluding your final game assessment.

          I should follow these closer but as I said they are not played in Florida.  That is probably not a very good excuse but it is all I have.

          Floridian 

          Yes this is my estimate of how large they could be if nobody wins again this year.  We could have several winners of smaller prizes before then. 

          In April and in February, MM produced jackpots of $260M+.  The February role produced a cash jackpot - calculated from sales of $160.6M before taxes.  I consisted of 15 rolls.  The April jackpot had a cash value of $149.2M before taxes and consisted of 14 rolls.

          The runs were consecutive.  Until April there had only been 2 MM winners. 

            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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            Posted: December 9, 2006, 11:35 pm - IP Logged

            floridian...here is what I have for the largest jackpots for 2006 for these two games:

             

                  MM      $270 million

                  PB       $365 Million (overall record)

            The overall record and second place are both held by Euromillions at $235 and $219 million in cash. Both from this year.