|Posted: December 4, 2006, 11:10 am - IP Logged|
2006 is winding down to a close. Both MM and PB have relatively low jackpots, sigh...
Both have 8 more drawings in 2006. If the jackpot rises without being won in either case, here is the size I estimate they will be.
In MM we are starting with a reset drawing. The last draw of the year would be an 8th draw. The average annuity value for 8th draws is $82M. My modeling program suggests an annuity value of $77M and a cash value of $45.6M. The probability of the jackpot getting to this point without being won is 51.5%, if my model is correct.
In the case of PB we are about to have a second draw in a run. Thus PB could end up in a ninth draw position if not won.
The average jackpot for a ninth run is $105M advertised, annuity. My modeling program predicts a jackpot of $107M advertised annuity, and a cash value of $52.8M. The probability of this occurring is 38.5%, if my model is close.