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Knowing which series will be used

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 10 years ago by CountingMan.

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Charlotte
United States
Member #42106
June 27, 2006
59 Posts
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Posted: December 13, 2006, 11:37 am - IP Logged

Good morning,

I was reading the following thread yesterday, and noted the testpb.doc file. 

http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/146613.  Having reviewed the testpb document, the following question occured to me: 

Would it be helpful in knowing the outcome of some the test drawing for the particular ball sets, and would they affect the numbers you would choose for future drawings? 

In other words, do you believe that backtesting the outcome of particular ball set assist in identifying the outcome of future drawings, and would knowing this information change your strategy?   

I am a regular MM players, and have never seen the documented outcome of test drawings such as those listed in the thread above.  I just assumed that they used the same ball set more often than the pB test document shows(call it lack of understanding about the operations of the drawing).

Would knowing this information change your methodology for choosing numbers?

Thanks in advance to all respondents!!!

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19816 Posts
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    Posted: December 13, 2006, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

    My question would be "Do PB players win more often with that information than MM players do without it?", if not then it doesn't matter.  I'm also a MM player because it's played in Ohio, for me it's interesting information but I wouldn't know how to use it.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       


      United States
      Member #16612
      June 2, 2005
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      Posted: December 13, 2006, 12:22 pm - IP Logged

      CountingMan, PB like CA SLP, will use test drawings before the draw.

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        Charlotte
        United States
        Member #42106
        June 27, 2006
        59 Posts
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        Posted: December 13, 2006, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

        My question would be "Do PB players win more often with that information than MM players do without it?", if not then it doesn't matter.  I'm also a MM player because it's played in Ohio, for me it's interesting information but I wouldn't know how to use it.

        RJOh,

        I have email the  MM organization as I have never seen test data like that posted on the PB website.  Had it not been for another member, I would not have realized that the information was available.  As to whether or not PB players win more oftern with that information, that is why I am asking the question: Has anyone considered this information, and has it had any effect on their winning?

        Thanks for the response.

          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

          United States
          Member #41383
          June 16, 2006
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          Posted: December 13, 2006, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

          YES, I have looked long and hard at this (test) info for almost an entire year, and I see NO continuity in the numbers chosen depending on the ballset or ball machine.

          I have extensive spreadsheets that contain A LOT of data - ballset and ball machine is part of that data, and I do not see anything like

          'Oh gee, every time they use ballset 70 and ball machine 95, numbers 6 and 30 hit'....  that just isn't happening.

          I thought the same thing some of you did - if you could predict which ballset and machine they would be using, to pick numbers in accordance with past history, but I'm telling you, there is no continuity at all.

           

          And you never know what ballset and ball machine they use ahead of time, by the time you would know (if you were there in-person), the game selling is shut down for that drawing, so you can't call someone on a cell phone and say 'play nn, nn nn nn nn and nn'.......... 

            guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

            United States
            Member #41383
            June 16, 2006
            1969 Posts
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            Posted: December 13, 2006, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

            RJOh,

            I have email the  MM organization as I have never seen test data like that posted on the PB website.  Had it not been for another member, I would not have realized that the information was available.  As to whether or not PB players win more oftern with that information, that is why I am asking the question: Has anyone considered this information, and has it had any effect on their winning?

            Thanks for the response.

            PS - you can bet your sweet bippy that if it DID have an effect on winning, they would not post it.

             

            They post it for one reason: to show that those numbers that 'never' come in - DO come in - maybe not in 'real' drawings, but at least in the test games. They DO get hit. 

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              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3474 Posts
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              Posted: December 13, 2006, 5:15 pm - IP Logged


              I think Guesser has it right.

              I don't believe for a moment that the equipment is so perfectly uniform, that the results are 100.0% random. For each combination of machine and ballset there will be minor variations that result in some balls being *slightly* more or less likely to be drawn, but the effect is far too minor to reveal any trends in the limited number of drawings.

              If you had a coin that was exactly as likely to land heads as tails and you flipped it 200 times you'd expect 100 heads and 100 tails, but the nature of randomness means that in 2  trials of 200 flips you could easily get a 102/98 split the first time and  97/103 the second time. If you repeated the experiment with a coin that was 1% more likely to land heads you'd expect 101 heads and 99 tails, but you'd have to flip it well over 200 times for the bias to reveal itself as something other than randomness. Choosing 5 of 55 balls, as with the big jackpot games, you'd needmany thousands of results to show a bias of 1%, and that's assuming that the bias in one ballset/machine combination isn't cancelled by any of the other combinations, and that they never replace ballsets or machines.

              Again, I don't believe that the drawings are perfectly random, but I also have no doubt that the bias is far too small to  reveal itself with the number of draws supplying data.

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                Charlotte
                United States
                Member #42106
                June 27, 2006
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                Posted: December 15, 2006, 9:28 am - IP Logged

                Everyone,

                 

                Thanks for the replys.  Guesser, I thought someone else on this had performed a similar analysis that I was going to.  You have save me a lot of time!!!!

                 

                Best of luck in playing to everyone!!

                 

                Happy Holidays!!!