|Posted: December 21, 2006, 12:42 am - IP Logged|
I don't care, but that isn't a bad thing. Since the probability of a rollover is a function of how many tickets are sold, a lot of what you post has been posted before for simialr jackpots. There will be minor variations based on the incremental increases, but for the most part the probability of a rollover correlates well with the amount of the cash prize. A cash prize of 34 million today will have roughly the same probability of rolling over as a cash prize of 34 million in 3 months or next year. There will be a small difference if the cash value goes from 26 to 30 vs 25 to 30, but the predictions will always be off because you don't know what combinations are being played. Probability based only on the number of tickets sold is only valid if the combinations played are random, and we know that's not the case.
Based on that I'd suggest that you just make a chart with an estimate of the probability for cash values from 6 to 150 million. Of course I could also suggest that it really doesn't matter, because either it rolls or it doesn't, and we only find out after the drawing. The only interest I can see in knowing the chances of a rollover are so that when you check your numbers and see that you've lost again you can guess at whether you'l have a crack at even more money next time.