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Posting the Rollover Probabiltity Statistics.

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Just6ntlc.

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Should I keep posting the probabilty of rollovers for MM and PB

Yes I read them. [ 11 ]  [73.33%]
Yes, but I don't read them [ 2 ]  [13.33%]
No, I can't stand you. [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
No, they are dull and unreadable. [ 1 ]  [6.67%]
What are you talking about? [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
Stop looking at me that way. [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
I'm getting angry. [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
Look, you keep it up and I'm going to hurt you. [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
I am going to win the lottery without your help. [ 1 ]  [6.67%]
Why are you bothering me with this stuff? [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
Total Valid Votes [ 15 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  
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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 20, 2006, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

I'm thinking of no longer posting my probability threads for MM and PB because I'm not sure any one finds them useful.  Should I discontinue them and the both either and neither thread.

Does anyone care? 

    Uff Da!'s avatar - InCelebration 001.jpg
    Washington State
    United States
    Member #33973
    February 26, 2006
    347 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 21, 2006, 12:28 am - IP Logged

    Oh, no, don't quit.  That's one of the few things I specifically look for.

      Avatar
      NY
      United States
      Member #23835
      October 16, 2005
      3502 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: December 21, 2006, 12:42 am - IP Logged


      I don't care, but that isn't a bad thing.  Since the probability of a rollover is a function of how many tickets are sold, a lot of what you post has been posted before for simialr jackpots. There will be minor variations based on the incremental increases, but for the most part the probability of a rollover correlates well with the amount of the cash prize.  A cash prize of 34 million today will have roughly the same probability of rolling over as a  cash prize of 34 million in 3 months or next year. There will be a small difference if the cash value goes from 26 to 30 vs 25 to 30, but  the predictions will always be off because you don't know what combinations are being played. Probability based only on the number of tickets sold is only valid if the combinations played are random, and we know that's not the case.

      Based on that I'd suggest that you just make a chart with an estimate of the probability for cash values from 6 to 150 million.  Of course I could also suggest that it really doesn't matter, because either it rolls or it doesn't, and we only find out after the drawing. The only interest I can see in knowing the chances of a rollover are so that when you check your numbers and see that you've lost again you can guess at whether you'l have a crack at even more money next time.


        United States
        Member #16612
        June 2, 2005
        3493 Posts
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        Posted: December 22, 2006, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

        I usually read the odds of winning PB and MM carefully before buying them as my vote.