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Missing The $200m-$300m Jackpots

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 10 years ago by delS.

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md
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Posted: December 28, 2006, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

I don't know if anyone else is feeling it, but I miss the large jackpots that were in 2005 and the beginning of this year!  I hope this present run by Mega Millions and Powerball reaches at minimum $250,000,000.  Whats your thoughts?


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    Posted: December 28, 2006, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

    I think these jackpots can reach $250 million if MM and PB continues to roll.

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      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: December 28, 2006, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

      The longer a game runs the smaller its largest jackpots get.  Either more people start playing increasing the chances of there being a winner before it  has a large jackpot or the players get smarter and start making smarter picks. 

      It hard to maintain a balance of keeping a game easy enough to win something and attract players and hard enough so it's not likely to be won until after it has a large jackpot.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

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        Posted: December 29, 2006, 12:34 am - IP Logged

        To tell you the truth, 10 mill would do me fine, and $200,000 would help, I can't argue about money I don't have...

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          Chief Bottle Washer
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          Posted: December 29, 2006, 1:02 am - IP Logged

          I don't know if anyone else is feeling it, but I miss the large jackpots that were in 2005 and the beginning of this year!  I hope this present run by Mega Millions and Powerball reaches at minimum $250,000,000.  Whats your thoughts?

          I miss them too. Those smaller jackpots are Ok - for a time. The whole point of multi-state games is to generate enormous jackpots.

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
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          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

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            New Jersey
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            Posted: December 29, 2006, 10:15 am - IP Logged

            It is inevitable that there will be big jackpots again, just as it was inevitable that there would small jackpots when the big ones were running.

            Over the last 7 draws in MM, sales were about $112M.  Big jackpots were produced from jackpots that had $116M in sales at this point.

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              md
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              Posted: December 29, 2006, 10:20 am - IP Logged

              Please clarify what you mean by "over the last 7 draws in MM, sales were $112.  Big Jackpots were produced from jackpots that had $116 in sales at this point." 

              Are you saying that because the low sales over the last 7 draws are an indicator that a large jackpot is out of reach?

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                NY
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                Posted: December 29, 2006, 12:04 pm - IP Logged


                Whether or not any given roll builds into a large jackpot is strictly a function of probability, and a large jackpot can never be ruled out until a small jackpot is hit.

                The cash value for the current MM jackpot went up by about  $7 million, which would mean about 24 million tickets are expected to be sold. If the combinations played were actually picked at random 24 million tickets would account for about 22 million of the possible 176 million combinations. That's 12.5%, which means there's about a 12.5% chance that there will be a winner(s) for this draw. It also means there's an 87.5% chance it will roll.  If it does roll there will be more ticket sales for the next draw and the chances of another roll might be about 85%.  If it rolls a second time there might be a 80% chance for the next roll. The 87.5% is fairly accurate, and the 85 and 80% are just rough approximations (and probably abit high) of what might happen. Using those guesses the chances that we'll see 3 more rolls is .875 * .85 * .8, which is .595.  In other words there's about a 60% chance that it will roll 3 more times, and perhaps a 45% chance it will roll 4 times and about a 1 in 3 chance that it will roll 5 times. 5 rolls would probably mean an advertised jackpot of $150 to 160 million.

                That means that, as a long term average, for every 3 jackpots that reach the $70 to 75 million mark we can expect that 1 will continue on to reach the $150 + range.

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: December 29, 2006, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

                  Del S:

                  No.  Not at all.

                  What I am saying is that the current run is close to the runs that produced giant jackpots.

                  For seventh draws, the maximal amount of sales accumulated by seventh draws was about $152M.  Ultimately the jackpot in that case grew to $265M, annuity.    That was in March and April of this year.

                  The minimal seventh draw accumulation in sales was $109M.  That jackpot grew to $163M annuity, also this year.

                  What I am trying to say that large jackpots, unsurprisingly, are a function of luck mostly.  Two factors offset each other:  Larger ticket sales add more money to jackpots of course.  However large sales also increase the probability that there will be a winning ticket.

                  The highest sales recorded under the new MM matrix for a single drawing was $104M.  If the tickets with sets of numbers purchased was truly random, there was still a 55% chance of that jackpot rolling over.    That what happened in the event was that the drawing produced a result that fell in the 45% probability of there being a winner.    This was just luck.    It could have easily rolled over again.

                  According to my other posts on probability that can be viewed in this section, there is a significant chance right  now of either jackpot exceeding $200M annuity, about 1 in 4 for MM and 1 in 3 for PB.  Both have close to a 10% chance of exceeding $300M.


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                    Posted: December 29, 2006, 3:08 pm - IP Logged

                    it's all up to the ones running the lottery.the larger ones seem to hit out west,northwest,somaybe the people in high populated areas,ny,etc. got tired of feeding the red states!

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                      md
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                      Posted: December 29, 2006, 3:37 pm - IP Logged

                      Prob988

                      Thanks for the clarity!

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                        Posted: December 29, 2006, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

                        it's all up to the ones running the lottery.the larger ones seem to hit out west,northwest,somaybe the people in high populated areas,ny,etc. got tired of feeding the red states!

                        At first glance, I disagreed with you, but after thinking about it, I tend to agree with you, if the 'type' of people that play the lotteries in the areas northeast are the same type of folk that follow pro sports in those areas.


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                          Posted: December 29, 2006, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

                          true,and illinois,california,pa.,guess we're just tired of not sharing the economys wealth!

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                            A long and winding road
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                            Posted: December 29, 2006, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

                            heck my numbers miss when its low and miss when its high, so I just plum *miss* all the time :)

                            Whilst practice is said to make perfect, this is one game I have yet to perfect!

                            I'd be glad to get a nibble (10K) as a consolation to not winning the big one!

                            Overall it is thrilling to read topics when it does get 150mill and above, suddenly the dreamers are abound with wonderful investment tips! I like dreamers, they awaken the spirit of the game!

                            ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

                             Thanks be to the giving numbers: 1621,912,119 02014

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                              md
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                              Posted: December 29, 2006, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

                              heck my numbers miss when its low and miss when its high, so I just plum *miss* all the time :)

                              Whilst practice is said to make perfect, this is one game I have yet to perfect!

                              I'd be glad to get a nibble (10K) as a consolation to not winning the big one!

                              Overall it is thrilling to read topics when it does get 150mill and above, suddenly the dreamers are abound with wonderful investment tips! I like dreamers, they awaken the spirit of the game!

                              TheGameGirl-

                              Its been awhile since I have been here and to see your post I think back to 2005 and your thoughtful post.  I hope you have a great New Year and hit a BIG ONE!