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# Benford's Law

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Thoth.

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United States
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June 30, 2004
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 Posted: January 10, 2007, 11:11 pm - IP Logged
NY
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October 16, 2005
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 Posted: January 11, 2007, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

Benford's law definitely points to some interesting stuff, but the simple form of it is really just that numbers that aren't random don't have a random distribution, and the interesting conclusion is that a lot of numbers we might think would be random aren't.

Pharr, Texas
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 Posted: January 11, 2007, 10:10 pm - IP Logged

Read the article on Benford's Law and learned the the number one is a more probable number to come out from one to nine more often. How does that fit in to the Texas pick three's midday and evenings???? Thanks. AL.

NY
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 Posted: January 12, 2007, 2:08 am - IP Logged

Read the article on Benford's Law and learned the the number one is a more probable number to come out from one to nine more often. How does that fit in to the Texas pick three's midday and evenings???? Thanks. AL.

It doesn't. Lottery results are random and don't  follow Benford's law.

Findlay, Ohio
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May 28, 2004
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 Posted: January 12, 2007, 11:39 am - IP Logged

It doesn't. Lottery results are random and don't  follow Benford's law.

The digits on the balls themselves (or electronically selected digits/combos in an RNG drawing) do not follow benfords law.  We will not find the digit one being drawn in a significantly higher amount than any of the other digits in the game.  However, the skips of the digits and/or combos follow Benford's Law very closely.

If you do some reading into Benford's Law you will see that it has been attributed to the effect of the probability of probability.  I have found (and shown) that the skips of digits and combos do follow Benford's law quite closely in the Pick 3 game.  Skips are random events, just like the digits and combos being drawn are random events.  However, some skips are much more probable than others and that is why we see them more often.

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

Findlay, Ohio
United States
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May 28, 2004
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 Posted: January 12, 2007, 12:26 pm - IP Logged

Take a look at the performance of the following two skips ranges:

The 1,s Range
1, 10:19, 100:199

The 2,s Range
2, 20:29, 200:299

Both the ranges include 111 possible points for skips to end in.  I intentionally left out 1000:1999 from the 1,s range and 2000:2999 from the 2,s range.  This shows that a bias does exist even without including that vast stretch of skips from 1000 to 1999 games later.  In every instance, hits in the 1,s range occured more often.

 STATE 1's 2's % OH 1135 1011 10.93% PA 1224 1111 9.23% NJ 1338 1143 14.57% MD 1529 1303 14.78% NH 1050 930 11.43%

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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