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Help with expected box hit rate averages

Topic closed. 2 replies. Last post 10 years ago by WSN1.

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Anywhere & Everywhere
United States
Member #10713
January 23, 2005
290 Posts
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Posted: February 3, 2007, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

Can anyone break down the expected hit rate average for box combination, just as it was done for straight combos, in the following thread?

http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/145824/720908?q=WIN++D

Thanks

dK

    Thoth's avatar - binary
    Findlay, Ohio
    United States
    Member #4855
    May 28, 2004
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    Posted: February 3, 2007, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

    WSN1:

    Here are the probability time lines associated with boxed combos...

    NO-MATCH BOXED

    PercentDecimalTrials
    50.00%0.5000115.18
    75.00%0.7500230.36
    80.00%0.8000267.43
    90.00%0.9000382.61
    95.00%0.9500497.79
    99.00%0.9900765.22
    99.95%0.99951263.01
    99.99%0.99991530.45

    Very close to 50% of all no-match hits should come within 116 (115.18) consecutive games of a combos last hit.  For example, suppose that the combo 678 was just drawn, there is a 50% chance that it will be drawn sometime within the next 116 games.  There is also a 95% chance that it will be drawn within the next 498 games.

    DOUBLES BOXED

    PercentDecimalTrials
    50.00%0.5000230.70
    75.00%0.7500461.40
    80.00%0.8000535.67
    90.00%0.9000766.38
    95.00%0.9500997.08
    99.00%0.99001532.75
    99.95%0.99952529.83
    99.99%0.99993065.51

    The 50% chance for a double-digit boxed combo is 230.70 or 231 games.  To have a 99% chance, plan on playing it for 1533 games.

     

    Both of these tables illustrate the probabilities for boxed combos to be drawn over a given measure of consecutive games.  As far as an expected hit rate average is concerned, a no-match combo will hit on average once for every 166.67 games and a double once for every 333.33 games.  Both of these averages are the odds themselves and both are over the long term.  Do not confuse "once for every" for "once in every". 

    Averages can be very misleading when it comes to the numbers, this is why I stick to the probabilities rather than the averages.  If you examine your states history and compare the skips of boxed numbers to the tables above, you'll see how accurate they are.

    ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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      Anywhere & Everywhere
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      January 23, 2005
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      Posted: February 3, 2007, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

      Cool Thanks Thoth!