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# Help with expected box hit rate averages

Topic closed. 2 replies. Last post 10 years ago by WSN1.

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Anywhere & Everywhere
United States
Member #10713
January 23, 2005
290 Posts
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 Posted: February 3, 2007, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

Can anyone break down the expected hit rate average for box combination, just as it was done for straight combos, in the following thread?

Thanks

dK

Findlay, Ohio
United States
Member #4855
May 28, 2004
400 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 3, 2007, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

WSN1:

Here are the probability time lines associated with boxed combos...

 NO-MATCH BOXED Percent Decimal Trials 50.00% 0.5000 115.18 75.00% 0.7500 230.36 80.00% 0.8000 267.43 90.00% 0.9000 382.61 95.00% 0.9500 497.79 99.00% 0.9900 765.22 99.95% 0.9995 1263.01 99.99% 0.9999 1530.45

Very close to 50% of all no-match hits should come within 116 (115.18) consecutive games of a combos last hit.  For example, suppose that the combo 678 was just drawn, there is a 50% chance that it will be drawn sometime within the next 116 games.  There is also a 95% chance that it will be drawn within the next 498 games.

 DOUBLES BOXED Percent Decimal Trials 50.00% 0.5000 230.70 75.00% 0.7500 461.40 80.00% 0.8000 535.67 90.00% 0.9000 766.38 95.00% 0.9500 997.08 99.00% 0.9900 1532.75 99.95% 0.9995 2529.83 99.99% 0.9999 3065.51

The 50% chance for a double-digit boxed combo is 230.70 or 231 games.  To have a 99% chance, plan on playing it for 1533 games.

Both of these tables illustrate the probabilities for boxed combos to be drawn over a given measure of consecutive games.  As far as an expected hit rate average is concerned, a no-match combo will hit on average once for every 166.67 games and a double once for every 333.33 games.  Both of these averages are the odds themselves and both are over the long term.  Do not confuse "once for every" for "once in every".

Averages can be very misleading when it comes to the numbers, this is why I stick to the probabilities rather than the averages.  If you examine your states history and compare the skips of boxed numbers to the tables above, you'll see how accurate they are.

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

Anywhere & Everywhere
United States
Member #10713
January 23, 2005
290 Posts
Offline
 Posted: February 3, 2007, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

Cool Thanks Thoth!

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