WSN1:
Here are the probability time lines associated with boxed combos...
NO-MATCH BOXED |
Percent | Decimal | Trials |
50.00% | 0.5000 | 115.18 |
75.00% | 0.7500 | 230.36 |
80.00% | 0.8000 | 267.43 |
90.00% | 0.9000 | 382.61 |
95.00% | 0.9500 | 497.79 |
99.00% | 0.9900 | 765.22 |
99.95% | 0.9995 | 1263.01 |
99.99% | 0.9999 | 1530.45 |
Very close to 50% of all no-match hits should come within 116 (115.18) consecutive games of a combos last hit. For example, suppose that the combo 678 was just drawn, there is a 50% chance that it will be drawn sometime within the next 116 games. There is also a 95% chance that it will be drawn within the next 498 games.
DOUBLES BOXED |
Percent | Decimal | Trials |
50.00% | 0.5000 | 230.70 |
75.00% | 0.7500 | 461.40 |
80.00% | 0.8000 | 535.67 |
90.00% | 0.9000 | 766.38 |
95.00% | 0.9500 | 997.08 |
99.00% | 0.9900 | 1532.75 |
99.95% | 0.9995 | 2529.83 |
99.99% | 0.9999 | 3065.51 |
The 50% chance for a double-digit boxed combo is 230.70 or 231 games. To have a 99% chance, plan on playing it for 1533 games.
Both of these tables illustrate the probabilities for boxed combos to be drawn over a given measure of consecutive games. As far as an expected hit rate average is concerned, a no-match combo will hit on average once for every 166.67 games and a double once for every 333.33 games. Both of these averages are the odds themselves and both are over the long term. Do not confuse "once for every" for "once in every".
Averages can be very misleading when it comes to the numbers, this is why I stick to the probabilities rather than the averages. If you examine your states history and compare the skips of boxed numbers to the tables above, you'll see how accurate they are.