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The odds the Jackpot reached $390 million are...

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Stack47.

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United States
Member #50896
March 19, 2007
5 Posts
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Posted: March 19, 2007, 5:38 pm - IP Logged

What are the odds of winning the MEGA MILLIONS Jackpot?
The answer is 1 in 175,711,536.

Since all the parameters are known, i.e.
- the odds of winning the MEGA MILLIONS Jackpot: 1 in 176 million;
- the price for each bet
- the distribution of the revenue from those bets, in particular which percent goes to the jackpot;
- how the jackpot increased week after week until reaching the record of $390 million

... it should be peanuts for you to calculate what are the odds that the Jackpot could reach te sum, i.e. that week after week nobody got the right combination.

The first to get the right answer can also be the first to prove Matt Marriott wrong, since he claims that those odds alone prove that each week a combination that nobdy did is picked up by the computer (the same for Euromillions, where the maximum number of weeks without a jackpot winner happened several times).

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    California
    United States
    Member #46824
    October 1, 2006
    270 Posts
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    Posted: March 19, 2007, 6:00 pm - IP Logged

    What are the odds of winning the MEGA MILLIONS Jackpot?
    The answer is 1 in 175,711,536.

    Since all the parameters are known, i.e.
    - the odds of winning the MEGA MILLIONS Jackpot: 1 in 176 million;
    - the price for each bet
    - the distribution of the revenue from those bets, in particular which percent goes to the jackpot;
    - how the jackpot increased week after week until reaching the record of $390 million

    ... it should be peanuts for you to calculate what are the odds that the Jackpot could reach te sum, i.e. that week after week nobody got the right combination.

    The first to get the right answer can also be the first to prove Matt Marriott wrong, since he claims that those odds alone prove that each week a combination that nobdy did is picked up by the computer (the same for Euromillions, where the maximum number of weeks without a jackpot winner happened several times).

    MattMatt...check out the thread by Prob988, Probablity of a Mega Millions Rollover.  The information you asked for is there and done after every drawing.

     

    As far as proving Matt Marriott wrong, I am not sure what you are trying to say.   What do you mean by "a combination that nobody did is picked up by the computer"? 


      United States
      Member #50896
      March 19, 2007
      5 Posts
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      Posted: March 19, 2007, 9:27 pm - IP Logged

      First of all I meant rounds, not weeks. 

      I checked out the thread by Prob988

      http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/119385/32

      The information you asked for is not there.

      The closest data is:

      1- The odds of 1.63% for a similar estimated jackpot ($394, see post from January 10 2007) as Overall Calculated Model Rollover Probability of the long term jackpot evolution model, which is significantly outphased with the observed (more precisely: official) evolution.

      2- the distribution probability for zero winners for each round, IF an average number of tickets sells on that round, which normally Prob988 gives before each round. Multiplying all of them would give the information I asked for IF an average number of tickets would have been sold on each round.

      --------

      What I mean by "a combination that nobody did is picked up by the computer": for the people operation the system, at any time it will take a fraction of a second to get the results for a query like "1000 combinations that nobody did". Plenty of choice and time to elect one of them as the next jackpot.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19830 Posts
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        Posted: March 20, 2007, 11:38 am - IP Logged

        First of all I meant rounds, not weeks. 

        I checked out the thread by Prob988

        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/119385/32

        The information you asked for is not there.

        The closest data is:

        1- The odds of 1.63% for a similar estimated jackpot ($394, see post from January 10 2007) as Overall Calculated Model Rollover Probability of the long term jackpot evolution model, which is significantly outphased with the observed (more precisely: official) evolution.

        2- the distribution probability for zero winners for each round, IF an average number of tickets sells on that round, which normally Prob988 gives before each round. Multiplying all of them would give the information I asked for IF an average number of tickets would have been sold on each round.

        --------

        What I mean by "a combination that nobody did is picked up by the computer": for the people operation the system, at any time it will take a fraction of a second to get the results for a query like "1000 combinations that nobody did". Plenty of choice and time to elect one of them as the next jackpot.

        Are you saying the balls used in the PowerBall and MegaMillions drawings are controlled by a computer?  And that the computer have them pick a combination from the ones it knows weren't played? 

        There's another poster who thinks something similar, only he thinks the lottery computers looks at his tickets and pick numbers he didn't play.  He has come up with a strategy he calls "Chao55" which he claims confuses the lottery computers and allow someone even if not himself to win a lottery jackpot and so far it seems to be working .

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

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          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7314 Posts
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          Posted: March 20, 2007, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

          Are you saying the balls used in the PowerBall and MegaMillions drawings are controlled by a computer?  And that the computer have them pick a combination from the ones it knows weren't played? 

          There's another poster who thinks something similar, only he thinks the lottery computers looks at his tickets and pick numbers he didn't play.  He has come up with a strategy he calls "Chao55" which he claims confuses the lottery computers and allow someone even if not himself to win a lottery jackpot and so far it seems to be working .

          Some people assume if the amount of money bet on QPs is more than all the possible combinations, somebody should have the winning numbers. Even though there was $212 million in sales when big Mega Million jackpot was hit, not every possible combination was sold. If the numbers16,22,29,39,42 were sold with every mega ball, there should have been at least 1 jackpot winner and at least 45 second prize winners; there were only 43 second prize winners so not all the combinations were sold.

          We know they sell duplicate tickets because there has been many multiple winners but that doesn't prove all possible combinations were sold. We filterer out combinations we believe are the least likely to hit (1,2,3,4,5) and maybe the RNGs do the reverse. However since they can't predict which numbers will come out or prevent somebody picking the correct combinations, we certainly can't say that is cheating because they didn't sell us a winning QP.