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2 billion random numbers and none of them matched the last draw

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 10 years ago by RJOh.

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Posted: April 5, 2007, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

(I love this new 64-bit workstation!)

The game's MM, and here's the spreadsheet (Excel 2003 SP2):

The first 56 columns are 56 random numbers using =RAND()*RAND()/RAND().  This should make certain all 56 numbers are different.

The next 56 columns are the rank of the random numbers using =RANK(A1,$A1:$BD1) in cells BE1 through DH1.

The next five colums are the first five of the ranked in numerical order using =SMALL($BE1:$BI1,1), =SMALL($BE1:$BI1,2), etc.

Then I did five =IF statements to see if the numbers matched the last Megamillions draw of 16,26,33,34,46.  I did not consider the Megaball.

Then I copied/dragged all this down to A65336!

Then I did a countif to see if any of the rows of if statements would sum to 5.

I also did a Goal Seek to see if a 5 came up and I ran it the maximum 32,767 iterations.

So, 65536 * 32767 = 2.147 billion different rolls of the random Excel dice.

I had quite a few where 4 matched, but not one matched all 5!

Had I included the MB, the odds would have been 1:175 million, but I didn't so the odds were only 1:3,819,816.

So. 2.147e9 / 3819816 = ~562 times I should have been able to match the last numbers drawn in 32,767 iterations.  Or, it should have only taken on average 58 iterations for a match to show up.

Another weird thing Excel is doing:  A =COUNTIF($BE:$BI,1) all the way to =COUNTIF($BE:$BI,56) should produce a rather linear line.  It isn't.  There is a significant dip in one number, recalc after recalc (F9).  The same number only comes up half as often as the other 55.  I do not want to say which number in case somebody else reports a different number.  It may just be that Office needs reloaded or repaired.  I don't know.

I guess I can't trust Excel.  I used to have 56 and 46 index cards that I shuffled and pulled the first 5 and 1, respectively.  I didn't keep track but it seems like I was hitting the little prizes more often that way.  I have never hit a big prize.

Just goes to show there is no formula or pattern going forward or back to tell you what the next numbers will be or what the last numbers were.

What?

Thanks for letting me get that off my chest.  This purple couch therapy session is now over.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: April 5, 2007, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

    "Just goes to show there is no formula or pattern going forward or back to tell you what the next numbers will be or what the last numbers were.

    What?

    Thanks for letting me get that off my chest.  This purple couch therapy session is now over."

    Wait just a minute!

    You assume that what you don't know is impossible for any one else to know or discover.  History proves you're not the first to think that way and was wrong.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
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      Luminus's avatar - ouskuu

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      Posted: April 5, 2007, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

      My signature says it all.

      The universe does not bend to your ignorance.

      Just because you believe it, doesn't make it true.

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        Posted: April 6, 2007, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

        "Just goes to show there is no formula or pattern going forward or back to tell you what the next numbers will be or what the last numbers were.

        What?

        Thanks for letting me get that off my chest.  This purple couch therapy session is now over."

        Wait just a minute!

        You assume that what you don't know is impossible for any one else to know or discover.  History proves you're not the first to think that way and was wrong.

        Wait a minute? For what? Are you going to prove my statement about the futility of predicting lotto numbers wrong? I don't think so! In fact, I know so! The only thing predictable are your responses.

        There is NO formula or pattern going forward or back to tell you what the next numbers will be or what the last numbers were! Period!

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
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          Posted: April 6, 2007, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

          Wait a minute? For what? Are you going to prove my statement about the futility of predicting lotto numbers wrong? I don't think so! In fact, I know so! The only thing predictable are your responses.

          There is NO formula or pattern going forward or back to tell you what the next numbers will be or what the last numbers were! Period!

          Actually, if you look at what you did scientifically and logically, the only thing you proved is that 65,000 lines of random numbers do not always predict the next draw.  You didn't prove that all systems don't work, because you did not try all systems.  So you point, which you made in a boldface font, is wrong.

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
          What grade did your lottery earn?

           

          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
            Chief Bottle Washer
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            Posted: April 6, 2007, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

            BTW, I also wanted to add that having a 64-bit workstation does not help this particular exercise whatsoever, because Excel is a 32-bit application.

             

            Check the State Lottery Report Card
            What grade did your lottery earn?

             

            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
            Help eliminate computerized drawings!

              Raven62's avatar - binary
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              Posted: April 6, 2007, 2:20 pm - IP Logged

              BTW, I also wanted to add that having a 64-bit workstation does not help this particular exercise whatsoever, because Excel is a 32-bit application.

              The Manufacturer most likely installed a 32-bit Version of the Operating System (XP/Vista) on the 64-Bit Workstation.

              A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                Posted: April 6, 2007, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                Uh-oh,  Rjoh,  looks like someone went,  'itstheirgame'  on you didn't they?

                Mabey if Excel isn't working... they could use pencil and paper, and floresent high-lighters, like I do...... because I don't know the first thing about Excel.

                I do know a magic formula for finding out what the last numbers were............it's over on the left,.....try Lottery Results.

                which I'm sure will be a typical smarty responce also (laugh-out-loud) 

                  Raven62's avatar - binary
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                  Posted: April 6, 2007, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

                  Uh-oh,  Rjoh,  looks like someone went,  'itstheirgame'  on you didn't they?

                  Mabey if Excel isn't working... they could use pencil and paper, and floresent high-lighters, like I do...... because I don't know the first thing about Excel.

                  I do know a magic formula for finding out what the last numbers were............it's over on the left,.....try Lottery Results.

                  which I'm sure will be a typical smarty responce also (laugh-out-loud) 

                  You could Learn How to use Excel... Wink

                  A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                    x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                    Posted: April 6, 2007, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

                    'preciate the heads-up,  Raven.......don't think I won't be tryingThumbs Up

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
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                      Posted: April 6, 2007, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

                      I've already expressed my opinion using the star rating.

                      No more replies for the A~s Clown.

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                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                        Posted: April 6, 2007, 4:01 pm - IP Logged

                        Uh-oh,  Rjoh,  looks like someone went,  'itstheirgame'  on you didn't they?

                        Mabey if Excel isn't working... they could use pencil and paper, and floresent high-lighters, like I do...... because I don't know the first thing about Excel.

                        I do know a magic formula for finding out what the last numbers were............it's over on the left,.....try Lottery Results.

                        which I'm sure will be a typical smarty responce also (laugh-out-loud) 

                        I don't know Excel either and after reading m3g4m1ll10ns's post I think it might be a waste of time to learn it.  After all it's just a computer program and like all computer programs the data output depends the data input. 

                        As Todd said m3g41ll10ns proved he could pick 65,000 combinations randomly that didn't have the last winning combination but I already knew that was possible since there are 3,819,816 possible combinations of 5's using 56 numbers.

                        If I was picking 65,000 combinations trying to match the last winning combination I would have more parameters than just being random, for example included might be not picking any combinations of five or four more than once or that had come up in previous drawings and etc.  And after I completed my run regardless of the results I wouldn't assume any one else would get the same results everytime regardless of how they picked their 65,000 combinations.  Odds are some times they're going to get lucky.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                          Posted: April 6, 2007, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

                          Sorry JADE,  I was just trying to throw in a little,  light-hardiness, for M3g4.

                          I hope everything works out for them. (M3g4 ll1o).

                          So..... sorry 'bout the repliying thing .....o.k.?Confused

                            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
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                            Posted: April 6, 2007, 5:31 pm - IP Logged

                            The Manufacturer most likely installed a 32-bit Version of the Operating System (XP/Vista) on the 64-Bit Workstation.

                            Even if it was running on 64-bit Vista, 32-bit Excel has no benefit over running on 32-bit Vista. I know this not only theoretically, but also because I am using 64-bit Vista.

                             

                            Check the State Lottery Report Card
                            What grade did your lottery earn?

                             

                            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                            Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                              Raven62's avatar - binary
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                              Posted: April 6, 2007, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

                              Even if it was running on 64-bit Vista, 32-bit Excel has no benefit over running on 32-bit Vista. I know this not only theoretically, but also because I am using 64-bit Vista.

                              No one said their is a benefit to running Excel 2003 (32-bit application) on a 64-bit Version of Vista.

                              His new 64-bit Workstation may however have a 32-bit Version of Vista installed on it. (the manufacturers don't seem to publicize this information to consumers)

                              A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!