|Posted: April 13, 2007, 11:05 am - IP Logged|
I've been predicting the West Virgina Cash25 for a while and thought my system had been doing well with a prize ratio of 115%+ and a prediction ratio of 6%+ however I did a check as to what would have happened had I just posted the previous 25 drawings as predictions rather than picking 25 combinations myself during the last 16 drawings (four weeks) and got the following results.
MATCH 0 = 60
MATCH 1 = 158
MATCH 2 = 143
MATCH 3 = 33
MATCH 4 = 6
MATCH 5 = 0
MATCH 6 = 0
I would have spent $400(imaginary) and won $93(real world)/$765(prediction board)
prediction performance ratio 39/400=9.8%
prize ratio (real world)93/400=23%/(prediction board)=765/400=192%
Now I'm re-evaluating my system and setting a new standard that it has to meet to have any value in the real world.
* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *