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When is something HOT?

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Thoth.

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How many hits does it take to be considered hot? (read post before voting)

2 times [ 8 ]  [57.14%]
3 times [ 2 ]  [14.29%]
4 times [ 2 ]  [14.29%]
5 times [ 2 ]  [14.29%]
6 times [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
7 times [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
Total Valid Votes [ 14 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
Thoth's avatar - binary
Findlay, Ohio
United States
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May 28, 2004
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Posted: June 10, 2007, 12:14 am - IP Logged

In Pick 3... I'm talking lottery, not hitting on hot girls at the bar lol.

A digit has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting in a specific position.  So in 10 games you could statistically expect it to hit one time.

Also, a front pair has a 1 in 100 chance of hitting...so in 100 games you may only expect it to hit once as well.

In 1,000 games, you may statistically expect a Pick 3 straight to hit once because its odds are 1 in 1,000.

So the question is...if something that hits one time within a number of games that is equal to its odds is said to be performing as expected,  how many times must it hit (within a number of games equal to its odds) to be considered HOT?

~Probability=Odds in Motion~

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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    Posted: June 10, 2007, 2:13 am - IP Logged

    I'm not sure what would make a number a 'hot' number, maybe one that is hitting more than the chances you posted above, or at least twice more than.

    But I know this kind of stuff gets people in trouble:

    "A digit has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting in a specific position.  So in 10 games you could statistically expect it to hit one time."

     Statistically, sure. But it may not hit for 100 games and then hit 11 times in the next 11 games, so the statistics have proven out but the system player has gone 'tapioca' chasing a number that 'has to be due."

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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      Posted: June 10, 2007, 3:26 am - IP Logged

      Confucius said : As soon as you think a number is hot, it will go cold.

      (insert signature here)

        guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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        Posted: June 10, 2007, 4:55 am - IP Logged

        Here is the problem:

        In Powerball, I can give you 12-15 'hot' numbers, and I can give you 7 icy-cold numbers.

        That said, which 'hot' number do you play ?

        Do you avoid icy-cold numbers ?

        Even if you did get lucky enough to bag one or two 'hot' numbers, you still have three others to hit, plus the PB.

        And not all hot numbers hit at the same time. 

        Yes, I know you specified Pick-3, same rules apply, though. 

          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
          FEMA Region V Camp #21
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          Posted: June 10, 2007, 8:59 am - IP Logged

          In a pick-3 game condidering digits by position drawn in the last ten games, a digit becomes hot when has been drawn two times.  That's my vote.

          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
            Chief Bottle Washer
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            Posted: June 10, 2007, 9:02 am - IP Logged

            <Moved to Pick 3 forum>

            Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

              MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
              Beautiful Florida
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              Posted: June 10, 2007, 9:14 am - IP Logged

              My choice is, anytime a number hits twice I would consider it hot....

                                                           

                                                             "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

                Thoth's avatar - binary
                Findlay, Ohio
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                Posted: June 10, 2007, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

                I'd have to agree that 2 or more times is "hot", though 3 times is probably more like it.  In my opinion, statistically  "expecting" a number to hit once within a number of games that is equal to its odds is a statistical fallacy.  Sure, it may hit about once for every 10, 100, or 1000 games over the long term (once for every increment of games equal to its odds), but expecting it to hit once within any particular span is usually based on a bad understanding of probability and/or statistics.

                 

                OddsGamesChance
                1 in 101065.13%
                1 in 10010063.40%
                1 in 1000100063.23%

                I guess you could expect all you want, but the fact remains that there is only around a 63 to 65 percent chance (depending on the odds of the expected event) that the expectation will actually come to pass.  Of course, you guys already know this, I just wondered what the majority of people thought.

                ~Probability=Odds in Motion~