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why is 3 of 5 and 3 of 6 average

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 9 years ago by CCHS13.

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January 13, 2005
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Posted: July 5, 2007, 9:53 pm - IP Logged

why is 3 of 5 and 3 of 6 such an average hit on these games?  just take 1 look in predictions and you'll see bunchs n bunchs of 3-5 and 3-6 winners  is the jump from 3-5 to 4-5 that big odds wise?  or 3-6 to 4-6 odds wise?  that much diffrent?  must be ...they'll be 20 3 of 6 winners every day but maybe 1 4-6 winner  ----------------------we need to correct thisWink

    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
    Indiana
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    Posted: July 5, 2007, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

    why is 3 of 5 and 3 of 6 such an average hit on these games?  just take 1 look in predictions and you'll see bunchs n bunchs of 3-5 and 3-6 winners  is the jump from 3-5 to 4-5 that big odds wise?  or 3-6 to 4-6 odds wise?  that much diffrent?  must be ...they'll be 20 3 of 6 winners every day but maybe 1 4-6 winner  ----------------------we need to correct thisWink

    Well, first thing to consider is that MOST games don't have 2/5 or 2/6 prizes, so the 3/5 and 3/6 hits that you're seeing are mostly the minimum you must match in order to actually receive a prize. Since it's the easiest to match(in order to win A prize), you can expect it to be the most common. Now as far as the difference between 3/5 and 4/5 or 3/6 and 4/6 depends on the matrix of the game being played. 4/5 actually is a bit harder than 3/5 because of the size of the pool that remains even after matching the first 3 numbers. For example, if you're playing a 5/36 game, and you've matched 3 numbers so far, to get AT LEAST a 4th number right, one of those 2 remaining numbers on that set must match yet another number that is picked from a pool of 33 numbers(36 total - 3 already matched). So there is a good amount of a difference. Now when I say 4/5 is "harder" than 3/5, I'm not necessarily implying that 4/5 is HARD. During my recent study of Pick 5, 4/5 and 5/5 actually can be easy when dealing with a low matrix Pick 5 game like Indiana's Lucky 5(which is 5/36) and using a good system. I've redesigned several of my algorithms and came up with several new ones, and hopefully 4/5 and 5/5 will start hitting.Big Grin

    Gonna win.Big Smile

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: July 5, 2007, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

      why is 3 of 5 and 3 of 6 such an average hit on these games?  just take 1 look in predictions and you'll see bunchs n bunchs of 3-5 and 3-6 winners  is the jump from 3-5 to 4-5 that big odds wise?  or 3-6 to 4-6 odds wise?  that much diffrent?  must be ...they'll be 20 3 of 6 winners every day but maybe 1 4-6 winner  ----------------------we need to correct thisWink

      You should look at the prediction board closer and check your math.  Only 5%-10% of the predictions match 3 or better, the rest hit nothing so the average is closer to no hits than 3of5 or 3of6.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        time*treat's avatar - radar

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        Posted: July 5, 2007, 11:49 pm - IP Logged

        here is the breakdown for a 36 Choose 5 game

        ways to match:

         
         5 of 5 1
         4 of 5 155
         3 of 5 4,650
         2 of 5
         44,950
         1 of 5
         157,325
         0 of 5
         169,911

        so you can see that getting 3/5 is 30 times more likely than getting 4/5 Cool

        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
          Dump Water Florida
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          June 5, 2002
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          Posted: July 6, 2007, 1:12 am - IP Logged

          why is 3 of 5 and 3 of 6 such an average hit on these games?  just take 1 look in predictions and you'll see bunchs n bunchs of 3-5 and 3-6 winners  is the jump from 3-5 to 4-5 that big odds wise?  or 3-6 to 4-6 odds wise?  that much diffrent?  must be ...they'll be 20 3 of 6 winners every day but maybe 1 4-6 winner  ----------------------we need to correct thisWink

          Think about Pick-3 wheeling for a minute. 

          If you want to wheel 3 digits all different it takes one number.
          If you want to wheel 4 digits all different it takes four numbers. 
          If you want to wheel 5 digits all different it takes ten numbers. 
          If you want to wheel 6 digits all different it takes twenty numbers.

          This tells us a five number line/combination contains 10 ways to make up sets of three. 

          A six number line/combination contains 20 ways to make up sets of three. 

          There are 5 ways to make up sets of 4 numbers out of 5.
          There are 15 ways to make up sets of 4 numbers out of 6.
          There are 6 ways to make up sets of 5 numbers out of 6.
          There is only one way to make up a set of 5 out of 5.
          There is only one way to make up a set of 6 out of 6.

          One ticket buys far more 3# coverage then any other prize tier, hence more 3# prizes are likely vs 4, 5 and 6.

          BobP


            Brazil
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            Posted: July 6, 2007, 2:52 am - IP Logged

            Ok, I checked the Prediction Winners for Thursday, July 5.

            Only RJOh and I are standard members. The others are probably using the Premium Membership.

            RJOh has two tickets with 3 out of 5 on Pennsylvania Treasure Hunt.

            I got one ticket with 3 out of 5 on Georgia Fantasy 5.

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              Posted: July 6, 2007, 7:08 am - IP Logged

              Ok, I checked the Prediction Winners for Thursday, July 5.

              Only RJOh and I are standard members. The others are probably using the Premium Membership.

              RJOh has two tickets with 3 out of 5 on Pennsylvania Treasure Hunt.

              I got one ticket with 3 out of 5 on Georgia Fantasy 5.

              any theorys on how we can correct this problem?Sun Smiley    with all these close calls someones gotta nail a jack in predictions somtime soon

                jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                Harbinger
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                Posted: July 6, 2007, 9:10 am - IP Logged

                I think geos*5666 got a 5 of 5 a couple of weeks ago.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: July 6, 2007, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

                  any theorys on how we can correct this problem?Sun Smiley    with all these close calls someones gotta nail a jack in predictions somtime soon

                  Check the prediction board daily for which predictors are winning the big prizes and do what they do.  It could be as simple as playing a lot more combinations. Wink

                  I match a few threes and fours once in a while but only 5% of my predictions do even that well.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       


                    Brazil
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                    Posted: July 11, 2007, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

                    Ok, today I matched 3 out of 6 for the Multi-State,  Tri-State MegaBucks. I used a reduced combination for matching 3 out of 6 , this combination has a guarantee of at least one winner ticket from ten tickets. The combination use 1 win(s) , 3 out of 6, 18 numbers (10 tickets). Probably playing more combinations would signify higher prizes , sure that playing the correct numbers also help a lot !!!

                      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                      Harbinger
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                      Posted: July 11, 2007, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                      Ok, today I matched 3 out of 6 for the Multi-State,  Tri-State MegaBucks. I used a reduced combination for matching 3 out of 6 , this combination has a guarantee of at least one winner ticket from ten tickets. The combination use 1 win(s) , 3 out of 6, 18 numbers (10 tickets). Probably playing more combinations would signify higher prizes , sure that playing the correct numbers also help a lot !!!

                      Yes. Good job.  Whatever you are doing to pick sets is good because you've done very well in the challenges. I think you have the potential to be a 6 of 6 winner. I don't know what this tri state is. Where is it? Or is this prediction? I'll look.

                      OK. I saw it on prediction. Good job.

                      That is the key, of course, having the right (drawn) numbers in your sets.

                        CCHS13's avatar - chi jpeg.jpg
                        Illinois
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                        Posted: July 11, 2007, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

                        I have noticed the same thing for quite a while now, also most of the 3 of 5's

                        and/or 3 of 6's that come from different predictors combined would have

                        had all the right picks.  Predictor A may have 3 of 5 and predictor B may

                        have 3 of 5 but together they had all 5 picks.  The trick is when you have

                        50 picks per person how do you play effectively without loosing your ass...What?

                        Men Lie Women Lie Numbers Dont