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How far back for a repeating event? (Read B4 vote)

Most Recent

[ 14 ]

[ 77.8% ]

Farthest Back

[ 4 ]

[ 22.2% ]

Total valid votes

[ 18 ]

Discarded votes

[ 2 ]

hypersoniq

Pennsylvania
United States
Member #1,340
April 6, 2003
2,580 Posts
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Aug 2, 2007, 10:17 pm

Here's the scenario...
I am counting the times that any number from "x" draws back repeats... I am looking for the highest frequency.
IN the event of a tie, which should break it and why?
A. repeats the furthest back because the number of original draws skipped is higher therefore using matches/draws... the hit rate is higher
B. most recent because it may catch current trends.
for example, a number repeats x amount of times 35 draws back and also 120 draws back... I would only pick one...

Have an EXCELlent day!
time*treat

United States
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March 30, 2005
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Aug 2, 2007, 10:38 pm

With respect to the limits of the question, the (more recent) trend is your friend.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Aug 3, 2007, 12:04 pm

Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on Aug 2, 2007
Here's the scenario...
I am counting the times that any number from "x" draws back repeats... I am looking for the highest frequency.
IN the event of a tie, which should break it and why?
A. repeats the furthest back because the number of original draws skipped is higher therefore using matches/draws... the hit rate is higher
B. most recent because it may catch current trends.
for example, a number repeats x amount of times 35 draws back and also 120 draws back... I would only pick one...

You need to make it clear that you're talking about a number and not a combination which you might be if you're talking about a pick3 game. Also the particular game might make a differences, for example West Virginia Cash25 only have 25 numbers and they have six chances to come up every drawing while PowerBall have 55 numbers that only get five chances to come up every drawing. The longest a number have gone in Cash25 without repeating is 36 drawings while recently PB had a number go 72 drawings without a repeat and it's even longer for the bonus numbers.
hypersoniq

Pennsylvania
United States
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April 6, 2003
2,580 Posts
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Aug 3, 2007, 8:22 pm

It's not counting skips, but rather how many times has a number repeated in "x" draws.
I started out with pick3 but it applies to all the games.
for example, I looked back over the history for how many times a number repeated from the last draw... then from 2 draws ago... rolling it thru the history as far back as I could.
the first white ball has repeated ten draws back more than any other number of draws back... doesn't really matter what number, just what interval has the most repeats over history.
sometimes a tie happens, such as 38 draws back interval vs. 215 draws back (a pick 3 example). I ws wondering if I should take the shorter interval (which means you had the same number of hits but more possible draws) or the longer one.

Have an EXCELlent day!
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Aug 3, 2007, 11:26 pm

Isn't that what you're doing when count the occurrences of all numbers for a certain period of time for example when I check the occurrences of numbers since the matrix change in MegaMillions I get:
06/24/05 TO 08/03/07 221 RECORDS
1. 18 11. 15 21. 17 31. 23 41. 15 51. 22
2. 18 12. 20 22. 16 32. 20 42. 21 52. 24
3. 16 13. 23 23. 14 33. 14 43. 22 53. 26
4. 17 14. 26 24. 25 34. 16 44. 17 54. 22
5. 25 15. 16 25. 29 35. 24 45. 17 55. 17
6. 16 16. 24 26. 17 36. 28 46. 27 56. 17
7. 30 17. 20 27. 18 37. 15 47. 10 57. 0
8. 17 18. 23 28. 18 38. 21 48. 26 58. 0
9. 20 19. 10 29. 19 39. 19 49. 17 59. 0
10. 15 20. 22 30. 18 40. 22 50. 21 60. 0

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Just6ntlc

United States
Member #16,611
June 2, 2005
3,493 Posts
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Aug 4, 2007, 1:40 am

I say farther back as my vote. I hope that the next draw produces all different white balls and bonus balls.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Aug 5, 2007, 12:45 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 3, 2007
Isn't that what you're doing when count the occurrences of all numbers for a certain period of time for example when I check the occurrences of numbers since the matrix change in MegaMillions I get:
06/24/05 TO 08/03/07 221 RECORDS
1. 18 11. 15 21. 17 31. 23 41. 15 51. 22
2. 18 12. 20 22. 16 32. 20 42. 21 52. 24
3. 16 13. 23 23. 14 33. 14 43. 22 53. 26
4. 17 14. 26 24. 25 34. 16 44. 17 54. 22
5. 25 15. 16 25. 29 35. 24 45. 17 55. 17
6. 16 16. 24 26. 17 36. 28 46. 27 56. 17
7. 30 17. 20 27. 18 37. 15 47. 10 57. 0
8. 17 18. 23 28. 18 38. 21 48. 26 58. 0
9. 20 19. 10 29. 19 39. 19 49. 17 59. 0
10. 15 20. 22 30. 18 40. 22 50. 21 60. 0

When you divide the above into 221 drawings you get the following ave. skips/drawing.
1. 12 11. 14 21. 13 31. 9 41. 14 51. 10
2. 12 12. 11 22. 13 32. 11 42. 10 52. 9
3. 13 13. 9 23. 15 33. 15 43. 10 53. 8
4. 13 14. 8 24. 8 34. 13 44. 13 54. 10
5. 8 15. 13 25. 7 35. 9 45. 13 55. 13
6. 13 16. 9 26. 13 36. 7 46. 8 56. 13
7. 7 17. 11 27. 12 37. 14 47. 22 57. 0
8. 13 18. 9 28. 12 38. 10 48. 8 58. 0
9. 11 19. 22 29. 11 39. 11 49. 13 59. 0
10. 14 20. 10 30. 12 40. 10 50. 10 60. 0
Then all you need to do is check which numbers have yet to hit within their ave. skips/drawing.
Blackapple

25

Wyncote,Pa
United States
Member #3,206
January 3, 2004
83,333 Posts
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Aug 9, 2007, 2:37 pm
It is certainly interesting how often the repeats occur, not only long-term but short-term as well. It creates all possible combinations using the previously drawn pairs. nIt is very successful for boxed and straight play. When you look at the recent Michigan Evening draws you can see why.
- 976 - 67 came 2 draws earlier
- 648 - 68 came the day before, 48 came 2 draws earlier
- 678
- 458 - 58 came the day before, 48 came 2 draws earlier
- 859 - 58 came 2 draws earlier, 59 came 2 draws earlier
- 438
- 985 - 89 came 2 draws earlier
- 479
- 098
Good Luck,

GC
JAG331

Greenwich, CT
United States
Member #4,793
May 24, 2004
1,822 Posts
Offline

Aug 23, 2007, 12:48 pm

Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on Aug 3, 2007
It's not counting skips, but rather how many times has a number repeated in "x" draws.
I started out with pick3 but it applies to all the games.
for example, I looked back over the history for how many times a number repeated from the last draw... then from 2 draws ago... rolling it thru the history as far back as I could.
the first white ball has repeated ten draws back more than any other number of draws back... doesn't really matter what number, just what interval has the most repeats over history.
sometimes a tie happens, such as 38 draws back interval vs. 215 draws back (a pick 3 example). I ws wondering if I should take the shorter interval (which means you had the same number of hits but more possible draws) or the longer one.

I voted for "more recent." Seems it would give you more of an opportunity to catch the number when it's hot...every 4 or 5 draws....rather than waiting around for it to get to that magical 32nd draw back.

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