Findlay, Ohio United States Member #4855 May 28, 2004 400 Posts Offline

Posted: August 14, 2007, 12:18 am - IP Logged

I'm still waiting for my longest-out Ohio Pick-3 number to hit: it's 0-2-3 straight and it hasn't been drawn since 01/7/1984...that's 9,890 consecutive games ago! The probability that it should have been drawn within that many games is 0.999949571, which equates to about 99.995%! That's a whole lot of games for a straight to be missing!

A straight going that far is like seeing a digit stay out in a specific position for about 94 games or like seeing a front, back, or split pair stay out for about 985 games! I have seen a few instances of pairs staying out for around 1,050 games and several instances of digits making it out for a little over 100 games (105, 107, 120, etc). Those are truly rare events.

I know that Ohio's 0-2-3 could make it out past 10,000, but I cant help but to believe that it will be drawn within the next 110 games. As far as I know, this is the second longest skip for a straight in Pick-3 history. Illinois had a straight stay out for around 10,500 games, 0-2-3 is not very far behind.

Since the last occurrence of 0-2-3 way back in ‘84, the following pairs have been drawn many, many times without being drawn with the necessary digit to produce 0-2-3.

0-2-X 92 times

X-2-3 78 times

0-X-3 75 times

...How many more times can each pair be individually drawn without one of the necessary digits to produce that infamous straight? 0-2-X can't be drawn too many more times without the 3 in position-three can it? You wouldn't think that the other two pairs (as a group) could make it much farther either. I think this baby's gonna pop soon!

If you look at the combo in boxed form, it has been drawn 50 times since 0-2-3 straight last hit. Remember, there are six ways that 0-2-3 could be drawn or arranged in boxed form. This means that of the six different arrangements of the digits 0-2-3, that five of them have been drawn 50 times...but still no 0-2-3 in that specific order! Suppose that you knew that the three digits of 0, 2, and 3 were going to be drawn in the next game. There is a 1 in 6 chance that it would be arranged as 0-2-3 straight. Actually, all six of the permutations each have a 1 in 6 chance. Those permutations are 0-2-3, 0-3-2, 2-0-3, 2-3-0, 3-0-2, and 3-2-0.

So what's the chance that the specific permutation of 0-2-3 should have been drawn within those 50 boxed occurrences? The answer is 0.999890115, which is about 99.99%. How many more time can 0-2-3 boxed be drawn without that specific straight arrangement? I don't think too many more times, but nothing in lottery is for certain.

Every aspect of that straight seems to currently be resting within the beginning point of certainty. That point in game-time is the 99.99% range where things are so far out that they have to happen soon...relatively speaking of course.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7322 Posts Offline

Posted: August 14, 2007, 1:05 am - IP Logged

I believe Badger mentioned the front pair 26 in the Kansas Pick-3 hadn't been out in over 1000 draws and it finally hit on July 9. So maybe we should fire at 023.

I don't play the Pick-3 very often; not since Karen Harris started doing the draws. But the Midday draw isn't televised and 723 did hit last Wednesday............hmmmm.

Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium Belgium Member #19287 July 29, 2005 2254 Posts Offline

Posted: August 14, 2007, 4:08 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on August 14, 2007

I believe Badger mentioned the front pair 26 in the Kansas Pick-3 hadn't been out in over 1000 draws and it finally hit on July 9. So maybe we should fire at 023.

I don't play the Pick-3 very often; not since Karen Harris started doing the draws. But the Midday draw isn't televised and 723 did hit last Wednesday............hmmmm.

I made a few posts about that 26X frontpair.

In the end, when it came in, it had been missing for 1197 draws.

It came in when the best performing 3-digit-serie was 2, 5 and 6.

United States Member #17354 June 17, 2005 102 Posts Offline

Posted: August 14, 2007, 8:24 am - IP Logged

Great thread.

I find this very helpful.

Extreme Skips:

A Pick 3 Straight or exact order win = 11,000 Days or more

A Pick 3 Front or Back Pair out1,200Days or more

A Pick 3 Digit in a specific position100Days or more

Armed with this knowledge, knowing for sure a straight, specific pair or single digit has entered into such an extreme skip zone, it is now time to take a CHANCE.This would then go from high probability to near certainty.WowLOL

Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium Belgium Member #19287 July 29, 2005 2254 Posts Offline

Posted: August 14, 2007, 8:53 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jordi marey on August 14, 2007

Great thread.

I find this very helpful.

Extreme Skips:

A Pick 3 Straight or exact order win = 11,000 Days or more

A Pick 3 Front or Back Pair out1,200Days or more

A Pick 3 Digit in a specific position100Days or more

Armed with this knowledge, knowing for sure a straight, specific pair or single digit has entered into such an extreme skip zone, it is now time to take a CHANCE.This would then go from high probability to near certainty.WowLOL

A shortsum's (22 boxed numbers, 12 singles, 9 doubles and 1 triple, or 100 straights) maximum skip (that i know of): Florida: 125 draws

Currently, if you combine TN mid and eve draws, there has been no double for 39 draws. Today should be the day for a double in one of them (or both)

States that did not see a 3-digit return to the next draw (same number that returns to the draw, in any of the 3 or 6 ways): TX eve 950 draws GA eve: 870 draws KY midday: 733 draws TN eve: 699 draws NJ eve: 586 draws SC eve: 586 draws ID: 523 draws A 3 digit return, taken all the draws into account (56 each day) happens every 4 or 5 draws. Today it has been 5 draws since it happened (in LA)

Boxed pairs: GA midday did not see 07 for 117 draws, and 25 for 104 draws IL midday did not see 24 fro 123 draws MD midday did not had the boxed pair 36 for 106 draws TN midday, did not had double 11 for... 380 draws!!! (TN needs a double!) Tri State midday did not had the 05 pair for 119 draws WC is missing the 68-pair, for 109 draws

Straight, positional pairs that are the longest out at this moment: FL: frontpair 20X, out for 987 draws MI eve, frontpair 38X, out for 829 draws MD midday, Splitpair 9X3, out for 822 draws NY eve, frontpair 41X, out for 808 draws Ontario, splitpair 7X7, out for 801 draws

United States Member #54505 August 21, 2007 5 Posts Offline

Posted: August 21, 2007, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

Your logic is flawed. You can not assume that previous number results will impact future drawings. Think of it this way, if you take a quarter and flip it ten times and it lands on tails all ten times, what are the odds that it will land on tails on the next flip? Still 50/50 right? So therefore, the odds of getting your straight are exactly the same as if it appeared on yesterday's draw.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7322 Posts Offline

Posted: August 21, 2007, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by opscure on August 21, 2007

Your logic is flawed. You can not assume that previous number results will impact future drawings. Think of it this way, if you take a quarter and flip it ten times and it lands on tails all ten times, what are the odds that it will land on tails on the next flip? Still 50/50 right? So therefore, the odds of getting your straight are exactly the same as if it appeared on yesterday's draw.

Probability Of An Event

P(A) =

The Number Of Ways Event A Can Occur

The Total Number Of Possible Outcomes

"Your logic is flawed. You can not assume that previous number results will impact future drawings."

In this discussion past results are not being used to predict when 023 will be drawn. Had I said in 1985 that 023 would be drawn in the next 1000 draws, there would be about a 63% chance of me being correct whether I based my prediction on past results or not. So if somebody told me that 023 hadn't hit in the past 2000 draws it might be worth a "how about that".

But this discussion is about 023 not being drawn in almost 10,000 draws. Statistically the front pair 02 has hit 92 times, the back pair 23 hit 78 times, and 0-3 hit 75 times.

"Think of it this way, if you take a quarter and flip it ten times and it lands on tails all ten times, what are the odds that it will land on tails on the next flip?"

Let's use your example and flip a quarter 10 times for each of the 1000 possible outcomes in a Pick-3 game in ten 1000 draw periods. It was heads at least 1 time for 999 of them.

"So therefore, the odds of getting your straight are exactly the same as if it appeared on yesterday's draw."

Apparently those odds don't apply to 023 based on the results of your coin flips.

United States Member #54505 August 21, 2007 5 Posts Offline

Posted: August 22, 2007, 9:51 am - IP Logged

"In this discussion past results are not being used to predict when 023 will be drawn."

You are, you are saying that it hasn't shown up in 10,000 draws. I am just saying this has no weight on future drawings. The randomness of the draw remains constant. This, in turn, allows the numbers to eventually reach a balance, but the actual odds of 023 showing up are the same as any other three digit choice since the balls are appearing at random. The affect of gravity does not acknowledge past results or how many times a ball has been picked.

"Had I said in 1985 that 023 would be drawn in the next 1000 draws, there would be about a 63% chance of me being correct whether I based my prediction on past results or not. So if somebody told me that 023 hadn't hit in the past 2000 draws it might be worth a "how about that"."

I'm not sure where you are getting a 63% chance of winning a straight in 1000 draws, this seems like a rather higher percentage. Anyway, your odds would be game specific, ie 1:1000 per draw. If your straight came up it would be based on those 1:1000 odds not a 63% chance over 1000 games. The problem with looking at past data is that it skews our perception and allows us to see what we want.

"Let's use your example and flip a quarter 10 times for each of the 1000 possible outcomes in a Pick-3 game in ten 1000 draw periods. It was heads at least 1 time for 999 of them."

Yes, but the reason this would happen is that there is a 1:2 chance of the quarter being heads on each flip. 50% is a much greater probability then the 0.1% that you get with picking 023. As you pick 023 each day for 10000 draws your odds never get any higher then 0.1%, so your chances do not improve with time, people enjoy thinking they do, but math disagrees.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7322 Posts Offline

Posted: August 22, 2007, 6:17 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by opscure on August 22, 2007

"In this discussion past results are not being used to predict when 023 will be drawn."

You are, you are saying that it hasn't shown up in 10,000 draws. I am just saying this has no weight on future drawings. The randomness of the draw remains constant. This, in turn, allows the numbers to eventually reach a balance, but the actual odds of 023 showing up are the same as any other three digit choice since the balls are appearing at random. The affect of gravity does not acknowledge past results or how many times a ball has been picked.

"Had I said in 1985 that 023 would be drawn in the next 1000 draws, there would be about a 63% chance of me being correct whether I based my prediction on past results or not. So if somebody told me that 023 hadn't hit in the past 2000 draws it might be worth a "how about that"."

I'm not sure where you are getting a 63% chance of winning a straight in 1000 draws, this seems like a rather higher percentage. Anyway, your odds would be game specific, ie 1:1000 per draw. If your straight came up it would be based on those 1:1000 odds not a 63% chance over 1000 games. The problem with looking at past data is that it skews our perception and allows us to see what we want.

"Let's use your example and flip a quarter 10 times for each of the 1000 possible outcomes in a Pick-3 game in ten 1000 draw periods. It was heads at least 1 time for 999 of them."

Yes, but the reason this would happen is that there is a 1:2 chance of the quarter being heads on each flip. 50% is a much greater probability then the 0.1% that you get with picking 023. As you pick 023 each day for 10000 draws your odds never get any higher then 0.1%, so your chances do not improve with time, people enjoy thinking they do, but math disagrees.

You may have misunderstood me.

"This, in turn, allows the numbers to eventually reach a balance, but the actual odds of 023 showing up are the same as any other three digit choice since the balls are appearing at random."

First of all I'm talking about straight numbers (000- 999). In every Pick-3 lottery there will be a time when 999 three digits combinations will be drawn. This might take 3000, 4000 or more draws because of repeats, but eventually this will happen. Because we know some numbers will repeat many times, we can't say for a fact "each three digit combo will have an equal chance of being drawn in the next 1000 draws".

"I'm not sure where you are getting a 63% chance of winning a straight in 1000 draws, this seems like a rather higher percentage."

I said "about 63%" because somebody did the math probabilities, posted it here on Lottery Post and based on that we should expect to see "about" 630 straight numbers in any given 1000 draw period. Because the drawings are random we don't know which combos will repeat or will not be drawn.

"Yes, but the reason this would happen is that there is a 1:2 chance of the quarter being heads on each flip."

You don't have to flip a coin; it's an analogy. We'll call every number drawn in the first 1000 draws tails and call the numbers not drawn heads. And based on the statistics I've read, the results are tails approximately 630 times. We take the next 1000 draws, do the same thing, and we should expect to see tails approximately 630 times again. Some numbers will be tails in both trials, some once and others numbers will remain tailless.

Eventually 999 numbers will be tails at least one time in one of these 1000 draw tests. The analogy with 023 is that we are now into the 10th 1000 draw trial and it's the only number that hasn't come up tails.

"50% is a much greater probability then the 0.1% that you get with picking 023. As you pick 023 each day for 10000 draws your odds never get any higher then 0.1%, so your chances do not improve with time, people enjoy thinking they do, but math disagrees."

In the next draw 0.1% of the numbers will be drawn but more than 50% of the numbers will be drawn in the next 1000 draws. If I flip a coin and say if lands on tails 023 will hit in the next 1000 draws, I'll have 50% chance of being correct. But if do the math and probabilities show approximately 630 numbers will be drawn in the next 1000 draws, the draws are random and each numbers has an equal chance, 023 should have a 63% chance of being drawn.

All the numbers had a 63% chance of being drawn at least once in one of nine 1000 draw trials and 999 of them were. I'm not saying because it's the last number standing that 023 has a better than 50% chance of being drawn in the 10th 1000 draw trial, the math says it has a 63% chance of being drawn.