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Race Of The Day - Belmont 9/13

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Rick G.

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Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
FEMA Region V Camp #21
United States
Member #520
July 27, 2002
5699 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 13, 2007, 8:57 am - IP Logged

8th Race

# 7 In The Spotlight (6/1)

Good luck! 

    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
    FEMA Region V Camp #21
    United States
    Member #520
    July 27, 2002
    5699 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 13, 2007, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

    Another possible price horse in this race is  # 4  Defrizz  (6/1).

    The top three contenders will be going off at lower odds than their value.  #7 and #4 are next in line and will pay fairly (or better).

    Good racing! 

    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
      FEMA Region V Camp #21
      United States
      Member #520
      July 27, 2002
      5699 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: September 13, 2007, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

      Here's a handy little chart for newbies.  It converts the odds of a horse to its corresponding percentage chance of winning.  Sometimes it helps to think in terms of percentages that must fill a pie chart to equal 100%.  Every horse gets a piece of the pie.

      Using the chart, let's say you have a 12 horse field.  The favorite is 2/1 (33%) and the second favorite is 3/1 (25%) for a combined total of 58%.  That means the other ten horses in the field have a combined percentage chance to win of only 42%.  That is not a realistic division of the "pie" and it can be exploited looking for value in your betting.  The goal is to find the horse(s) that are being cheated out of their fair share of the pie in the betting pool.

       

      Odds conversion to %      Rounding was used

      ODDS     %      ODDS    %

      1/9    .909    10-1    .091
      1/5    .833    11-1    .083
      2/5    .714    12-1    .077
      1/2    .667    13-1    .071
      3/5    .625    14-1    .067
      4/5    .556    15-1    .063
        1    .500    16-1    .059
      6/5    .455    17-1    .056
      7/5    .417    18-1    .053
      3/2    .400    19-1    .050
      8/5    .385    20-1    .048
      9/5    .357    25-1    .038
      2-1    .333    30-1    .032
      5-2    .286    35-1    .028
      3-1    .250    40-1    .024
      7-2    .222    45-1    .022
      4-1    .200    50-1    .020
      9-2    .182    60-1    .016
      5-1    .167    70-1    .014
      6-1    .143    80-1    .012
      7-1    .125    90-1    .011
      8-1    .111    100-1    .001
      9-1    .100    
         

      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
        FEMA Region V Camp #21
        United States
        Member #520
        July 27, 2002
        5699 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: September 13, 2007, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

        Results:

         

        Belmont Park - Race 8    
        # Win Place Show
        3 $6.00 $3.90 $3.40
        4 . $9.20 $5.30
        7 . . $4.80

        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).