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9/26 Powerball statistical anomoly

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 9 years ago by RJOh.

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Posted: September 28, 2007, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

The 9/26 Powerball drawing was for a set of high numbers: 25, 27, 31, 44, 54   PB 8.  This set of numbers would be expected to produce statistically expected frequencies for various win categories.  That is, there is nothing in these numbers that should produce statistical aberrations, especially since that are high numbers.   In this drawing, the Match 4 + PB category had 256 winners which was way above the statistical expected frequency.  We would expect something much closer to around 30 winners with the number of players on this draw.  I thought that this anomonly was caused by one lucky player that played multiple times on a number sequence that won many times over.  If this was the case, then I should be able to see an outlier frequency in the state by state results.  Strangely, many of the state by state results had Match 4 + PB frequencies that were way above what would be expected.  That is, the anamoly was distributed across states.  I find that unexplainable.  Any insights as to the cause, or why this set of numbers should produce such anamolous results would be appreciated. 

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
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    Posted: September 28, 2007, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

    Interesting, something to think about... !

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      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: September 28, 2007, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

      http://www.lotterypost.com/news/163572

      According to the above article, a lot of players got their numbers from the TLC Network's broadcast of "How the Lottery Changed My Life" after the show announced what it believed were the most frequently drawn lotto numbers,8-25-31-50-44-54.

      A similar thing happened last year when a lot of players got their numbers from fortune cookies which all had the same message.  In that case there were more than 120 match5 winners and the PB lottery did an investigation.

      If all of those places that sell numbers that are more likely to hit weren't scams, it would happen more often.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
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        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
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        Posted: September 28, 2007, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

        http://www.lotterypost.com/news/163572

        According to the above article, a lot of players got their numbers from the TLC Network's broadcast of "How the Lottery Changed My Life" after the show announced what it believed were the most frequently drawn lotto numbers,8-25-31-50-44-54.

        A similar thing happened last year when a lot of players got their numbers from fortune cookies which all had the same message.  In that case there were more than 120 match5 winners and the PB lottery did an investigation.

        If all of those places that sell numbers that are more likely to hit weren't scams, it would happen more often.

        Again...

        Interesting, something to think about... !

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

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          Knoxville
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          Posted: September 28, 2007, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

          RJOh,

           

          Yes, it had to be something like that.  I missed the article.  Thanks much! 

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: September 28, 2007, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

            The same thing could happen with the LP prediction board as the source if any of the predictors ever had a lot of people playing their numbers.  I don't expect that to ever happen but it would make an interesting story.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
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              time*treat's avatar - radar

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              Posted: September 29, 2007, 2:09 am - IP Logged

              http://www.lotterypost.com/news/163572

              According to the above article, a lot of players got their numbers from the TLC Network's broadcast of "How the Lottery Changed My Life" after the show announced what it believed were the most frequently drawn lotto numbers,8-25-31-50-44-54.

              A similar thing happened last year when a lot of players got their numbers from fortune cookies which all had the same message.  In that case there were more than 120 match5 winners and the PB lottery did an investigation.

              If all of those places that sell numbers that are more likely to hit weren't scams, it would happen more often.

              If this show had aired a week earlier or a week later, the number of match 4 + PB winners would have been much lower, instead. With more people playing the same losing set, the rush to investigate and question the players' number selection process looks more like Vermont maple sap in January.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: September 29, 2007, 5:58 am - IP Logged

                If this show had aired a week earlier or a week later, the number of match 4 + PB winners would have been much lower, instead. With more people playing the same losing set, the rush to investigate and question the players' number selection process looks more like Vermont maple sap in January.

                256 more losers would blend in a lot easier than 256 match4 winners, no one would ever notice or care about them among all the other losers.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
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                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: September 29, 2007, 3:09 pm - IP Logged

                  If this show had aired a week earlier or a week later, the number of match 4 + PB winners would have been much lower, instead. With more people playing the same losing set, the rush to investigate and question the players' number selection process looks more like Vermont maple sap in January.

                  If there was a source that was causing more people to win the higher tier prizes consistently than expected then more states would adapt a policy like California where all games payouts are parti-mutual rather than fixed amounts.  As long as it only happens rarely those states probably gain more than they lose when groups of players pick their numbers that way.  All states have limits on the numbers of times pick3 and pick4 numbers can be play because that's more likely to happen in those games with fewer possible combinations.

                  The fact that this doesn't happen enough for most states to be concerned about their jackpot games convinces me that no software or number picking service can help anyone pick more winners.  If anyone knows how to pick more winners then they're not sharing what they know.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
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                    Posted: October 1, 2007, 10:06 am - IP Logged

                    If higher tiered prizes could be won consistently by reference to some system, than we would see the concept of a lottery eventually abandoned.  It would become unsustainable.  Its sort of like alchemy.  If someone actually eventually found a way to make gold from common elements, gold would eventually become worthless, thus making the discovery worthless.  

                    I note that Powerball has a rule that protects them from non-random win frequencies of the type discussed on this thread.  They have a "set limit reserve" of $25 million.  This reserve is available for payouts on the set limit prizes that occur in non-random frequencies.  If this reserve is tapped out (say because a number promoted by an episode of "Lost" happens to almost hit, thus producing hundreds of match 5 wins) the Powerball prize pool will automatically become a pari-mutual prize payout with the $25 million set prize reserve thrown in.  Thus, there is a limit as to what can be won from set prizes if one happens to think they know the draw in advance.  

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: October 3, 2007, 10:36 am - IP Logged

                      Higher tiered prizes can be won consistently now by playing a lot of combinations but it not practical, the payouts won't cover the cost.  The point I was making was that if any of the systems advertised to give an advantage to a lottery players really worked then when they did work everyone using them would win big at the same time like all those players who got their numbers from fortune cookies and more recently from the TV show.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
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