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Which is the Smarter Bet?

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Coin Toss.

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LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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Posted: December 19, 2007, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

St. Jude's just announced a new Dream Home raffle here in SW Idaho.  Over in Star for those of you in the area.  Anyway, they're selling 7,777 tickets at $100 each and the winner gets a $400,000 home.

Suppose I couldn't afford to keep the house (pay income taxes on the $400K, increased property taxes, etc.) and would have to sell it.   Real estate is in the dumper here right now, but it's expected to pick up by spring and the house won't be given away till June, so it should sell fairly easily.  After realtor fees and income taxes, the winner will probably take about $270K.

The last time they had a dream home raffle here, there were 7,000 tickets available but only something like 4,000 sold.  A different TV station is promoting it this year, so I suspect more tickets, if not all, will sell this time.

Would it be smarter to spend $100 on a Dream Home raffle ticket, or buy 100 PowerBall tickets, or 50 PowerBall tickets with the PowerPlay?  Or something else? 

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    Honduras
    Member #20982
    August 29, 2005
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    Posted: December 19, 2007, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

    If i was me i will go for the home...It is such a great idea that i believe every raffle should giveaway houses, because then the 100 dollar price is correct/valid...

     

    "More important than winning all of the state' lotteries is the movie "Red Planet"....."

      Captain Lotto's avatar - CaptLotto
      Jefferson City, MO
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      Posted: December 19, 2007, 4:59 pm - IP Logged

      One in 7,777 is pretty good odds, but the entry price is pretty steep.  For $100, you could buy 100 chances on your state Lotto or Powerball.  The odds of hitting Powerball are fairly high - 1 in 46 million.  Of course, hitting the second prize is easier, 1 in 3 million, and comparable to the prize on the house raffle. 

      Of course, the caveat is being able to pay the taxes on your winnings, should you be selected.  It's also important to remember that your odds don't improve by buying more tickets.  The odds are the same for every ticket you buy.  That's why it's important to play for fun and only what you can afford.  The smart bet is probably to spend a buck on Powerball and keep the other $99 in your pocket.  Good luck.

      Captain Lotto

      "Every day is a good day!"

        JackpotWanna's avatar - squiz

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        Posted: December 19, 2007, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

        One in 7,777 is pretty good odds, but the entry price is pretty steep.  For $100, you could buy 100 chances on your state Lotto or Powerball.  The odds of hitting Powerball are fairly high - 1 in 46 million.  Of course, hitting the second prize is easier, 1 in 3 million, and comparable to the prize on the house raffle. 

        Of course, the caveat is being able to pay the taxes on your winnings, should you be selected.  It's also important to remember that your odds don't improve by buying more tickets.  The odds are the same for every ticket you buy.  That's why it's important to play for fun and only what you can afford.  The smart bet is probably to spend a buck on Powerball and keep the other $99 in your pocket.  Good luck.

        It be smarter to spend $100 on a Dream Home raffle ticket.  You can flip it, or make it a rental income, if you win.

        I would buy 1 $100 ticket and pray.  :)

         

        Good Luck.

          FloridaGirl's avatar - Lottery-025.jpg
          Ft lauderdale , florida
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          Posted: December 19, 2007, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

          I will never put money on a dream home raffle ticket , ever again.

          I did in the past and i believe its fixed..........because the people who has won , never did live in the house. They put the house for sale the next day of the win.

          If i had won, i think i would have live in that dream house.  Even if the house was in a different town.  We would have move into that dream house.

          If i did not want to move in , just thinking of reselling it.........i would not buy any tickets.

          FloridaGirl

            ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
            Idaho
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            Posted: December 19, 2007, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

            A hundred dollar raffle ticket is too steep for my budget. The odds are of course nice, but I don't think I could put 100 dollars down all at once on one ticket. I would rather stretch that amount over time on Powerball/Hot Lott/Wild Card 2.  

            "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

              LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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              Posted: December 19, 2007, 5:50 pm - IP Logged

              "If i did not want to move in , just thinking of reselling it.........i would not buy any tickets.

              FloridaGirl"

               

              Are you thinking that the hassle of selling it would be too much?  Or is there another reason you'd not try to win it just to sell it?

                tntea's avatar - Lottery-059.jpg

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                Posted: December 19, 2007, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

                I will never put money on a dream home raffle ticket , ever again.

                I did in the past and i believe its fixed..........because the people who has won , never did live in the house. They put the house for sale the next day of the win.

                If i had won, i think i would have live in that dream house.  Even if the house was in a different town.  We would have move into that dream house.

                If i did not want to move in , just thinking of reselling it.........i would not buy any tickets.

                FloridaGirl

                I would most definitely sell it or give it away..  I am very happy where I am living. 

                     OLD/Vtrac   Lottery Bible         Double Warnings      Thumbs Up TN F34/F44

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: December 19, 2007, 6:38 pm - IP Logged

                  Captain Lotto

                  "One in 7,777 is pretty good odds, but the entry price is pretty steep.  For $100, you could buy 100 chances on your state Lotto or Powerball.  The odds of hitting Powerball are fairly high - 1 in 46 million.  Of course, hitting the second prize is easier, 1 in 3 million, and comparable to the prize on the house raffle. "

                  Fairly high? Second tier, 1 in 3 millions is "easier"? You're killing me.

                  One $100 shot at a $400,000 house is a far better "bet" than 100 $1 shots at either 1 in 140 milllion or 1 in 3 million odds.  

                  For second tier prizes, PB is $200,000 and in most state lottos the prize for second (5 of 6) is an insult, anywhere between $200 and $1200.

                    $400,000

                  -  200,000

                  __________

                  $200,000

                  Equivalent? When is half "equivalent?

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                    Wandering Aimlessly
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                    Posted: December 20, 2007, 12:21 am - IP Logged

                    Captain Lotto, I know we all have our personal opinions, but you wrote

                    It's also important to remember that your odds don't improve by buying more tickets.  The odds are the same for every ticket you buy. 

                    Yes, the odds are the same for each ticket, but your individual chances of winning increase if you have 10 tickets instead of 1.  You do only have 10 chances out of 7,777 but with a raffle, someone is going to win and a limited amount of tickets are sold.  With a jackpot game like PB or MM, there's no guarantee anyone will have the winning number.  With PB the difference is so insignificant that 1 or 10 or 100 tickets might not make a dent, it will give you more combinations.  Also, I think you probably made a typo and meant to write 1 in 140 million not 1 in 40 million for PB odds.

                    That's why it's important to play for fun and only what you can afford.  The smart bet is probably to spend a buck on Powerball and keep the other $99 in your pocket.

                    I totally agree with this statement!  I know I sound like a broken record when I bring up Deal or No Deal, but nobody ever wins.  One week they added several more million dollar cases and still nobody won.  Those contestants are either paid to lose or they're really nuts turning down $200,000 or more when the odds aren't on their side.

                    Lilly, I think the raffle for Saint Jude's is a good idea.  It's a great hospital.

                      LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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                      Posted: December 20, 2007, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                      Lilly, I think the raffle for Saint Jude's is a good idea.  It's a great hospital.

                       

                      Yep, that's what got me to buy the first 2 years.  They gave away dozens of other prizes besides the house, and I didn't win a thing.  I was kind of glad when they quit doing it so I wouldn't have to make a decision.  LOL

                        Captain Lotto's avatar - CaptLotto
                        Jefferson City, MO
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                        Posted: December 20, 2007, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

                        OK CoinToss and Justxploring, you're both right.  What I meant was, the odds are good on the House giveaway, but there are other factors involved -  Is the house somewhere you want to live, can you pay the taxes if you win, will you be able to afford property taxes and potentially higher utilities EVERY YEAR?  With all due respect to St. Judes, how about can you trust the raffle is fair?  That said, it's also a charity which has other rewards.  Certainly, the odds on Lotteries are higher, but you can play for just a dollar. 

                        Odds are funny.  Certainly buying 10 tickets means you have more opportunities to win than the person who bought just one, but the odds for EACH ticket are the same.  He has the same chance his number will be drawn as your ten. 

                        Captain Lotto

                        "Every day is a good day!"

                          justxploring's avatar - villiarna
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                          Posted: December 20, 2007, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

                          Captain Lotto - and the person who buys 100 tickets might win nothing at all, not even a lower tier prize in the lottery, while the person who spends a dollar might win millions.  I would never go to a store and buy 100 tickets, but it happens.  There are people who buy piles of scratch-offs and stay in the store scratching and scratching for an hour.  Then someone walks in 20 minutes after he leaves, buys 1 ticket, and wins $50,000 a year for life.

                          Regarding prizes, when I see a game show I think the same as you. "Just show me the money."  HGTV gave away a gorgeous home on Lake Lure once.  It was their Dream Home and you could enter online each day.  But then I read the actual rules and, even after your name was picked, you had to jump through several hoops.  At least with the lottery, you win instantly and that's that - no small print like "you have to fly to our studios, appear on a show with the semi-finalists" blah, blah. 

                          "With all due respect to St. Judes, how about can you trust the raffle is fair?" 

                          Gosh, if you can't trust a charity that helps kids with cancer, what can you trust?  I didn't want to say this before, but I've sent them several donations over the years. They've been very small, but even $5 or $10 helps. I just can't imagine that they would hold a raffle and then cheat. The scandal would be devastating to their cause.

                            time*treat's avatar - radar

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                            Posted: December 20, 2007, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

                            St. Jude's just announced a new Dream Home raffle here in SW Idaho.  Over in Star for those of you in the area.  Anyway, they're selling 7,777 tickets at $100 each and the winner gets a $400,000 home.

                            Suppose I couldn't afford to keep the house (pay income taxes on the $400K, increased property taxes, etc.) and would have to sell it.   Real estate is in the dumper here right now, but it's expected to pick up by spring and the house won't be given away till June, so it should sell fairly easily.  After realtor fees and income taxes, the winner will probably take about $270K.

                            The last time they had a dream home raffle here, there were 7,000 tickets available but only something like 4,000 sold.  A different TV station is promoting it this year, so I suspect more tickets, if not all, will sell this time.

                            Would it be smarter to spend $100 on a Dream Home raffle ticket, or buy 100 PowerBall tickets, or 50 PowerBall tickets with the PowerPlay?  Or something else? 

                            Who's doing the "expecting"? If you don't want/can't afford the house, then you also are relying on someone coming along who wants and can afford it. Meanwhile, you're eating the carrying costs while plenty of other comparables are dropping in price. Your "win" could cost you more than $100.

                            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                              LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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                              Posted: December 20, 2007, 6:24 pm - IP Logged

                              Who's doing the "expecting"? If you don't want/can't afford the house, then you also are relying on someone coming along who wants and can afford it. Meanwhile, you're eating the carrying costs while plenty of other comparables are dropping in price. Your "win" could cost you more than $100.

                              The PTB are the ones "expecting."   Boise's housing market hasn't been hit as hard as some because we're a growing community.  New homes are overbuilt here, but sales continue, and they expect the slack to be taken up by spring.

                              If the house ain't worth $400K at the time they transfer it to the winner, then you'd only pay taxes on the actual value.  So if you put it on the market and get offers of only $350K then you take the offer and pay taxes on the $350K.  Yeah, your profit would be less, but I sure can't see actually losing money on the deal.

                              Plus these homes get a LOT of publicity over the 4 or 5 months that the raffle is going on.  The NBC affiliate will do live remotes during the build and after the home is finished and decorated, and lots of ads, and that seems to increase some people's interest in buying the home. 

                              In the meantime, you'd have to pay electricity so they could show the house which might be $30 a month.  You might have to pay a quarter's property taxes which in Star won't be more than $800 or so.  If you can keep the IRS at bay for a couple months, I can't see any other real expenses.