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Which is the better bet ?

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 9 years ago by JKING.

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JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

United States
Member #5599
July 13, 2004
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Posted: February 27, 2008, 10:15 pm - IP Logged

Your have $5 to bet on MegaMillions or Powerball. Which method from the two examples below would you use?

Example #1

The same 5 numbers with different bonus balls

1,2,3,4,5-1

1,2,3,4,5-2

1,2,3,4,5-3

1,2,3,4,5-4

1,2,3,4,5-5

Example #2

Twenty five different numbers with the same bonus ball.

1,2,3,4,5-1

6,7,8,9,10-1

11,12,13,14,15-1

16,17,18,19,20-1

21,22,23,24,25-1

Which one pays off the best if you hit?

All comments and opinions are welcome. *S*

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    benmas's avatar - waveform
    Rhode Island
    United States
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    October 28, 2007
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    Posted: February 27, 2008, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

    the main difficulty stands with combining the 5 white balls...so i'd say try 5 different combos for the 5 white balls and keep pb same...if you hit the pb once you make 3 bucks..its nothing...so might as well go with one gut shot and make 3x5...i'd defenitly go with option 2 but dont necessarily agree with 25 different balls on all lines..you can keep one or two white balls same on all 5 lines especially if you have a number that you feel it..

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
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      June 5, 2002
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      Posted: February 28, 2008, 2:31 am - IP Logged

      Optimal lotto strategy would be to play 25 unique numbers if you only have 5 lines to work with.  This would improve your odds of having the winning numbers among those you are playing.  You can't win if you don't have the winning numbers.  BobP


        JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

        United States
        Member #5599
        July 13, 2004
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        Posted: February 28, 2008, 9:03 am - IP Logged

        Hi,

         Thanks for the replies.

        Just a couple thoughts for discussion purposes.

        1) Just because you have increased your odds of getting the winning by playing 25 numbers, there is no guarentee that those winning numbers will end up on the same line.

        2) For arguments sake, lets say the winning numbers were 1,2,3,45,46 and neither example hits the bonus number. If the payoff for hittting 3 numbers is $10, then example #1 got $50 less the $5 buy in. Example #2 got $10 less the $5 buy in. So you have $45 versus $5 in winnings. Hmmmm

        3) I guess it's a matter of how much confidence you have in your numbers.

        You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

        Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
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          March 24, 2001
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          Posted: February 28, 2008, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

          I agree with BobP that the optimal lotto strategy would be to play 25 unique numbers.  Having said that, there are some additional strategies that will optimize those 25 numbers chances of having a combination that will win something.  You should avoid combinations that has matched 4 or 5 in previous drawings and distribute the numbers in each combination in a similar manner as previous winners.

          I tried this yesterday with Ohio Rolling Cash5 and matched 3 and 2 for $11 with 10 lines.  I posted the 10 lines on the prediction board and it showed I matched 3 for $10 however it does count match 2's.  Since I didn't lose and RC5 is almost at $400K, I'll be playing again today and expecting a better outcome.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            fja's avatar - gnome1

            United States
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            January 19, 2002
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            Posted: February 28, 2008, 2:00 pm - IP Logged

            Question was "which one pays off better if you hit": 

            Example 1 will pay off the best

            If 1,2,3,4,5-1  is pulled, then you win the jackpot plus  the 2nd  prize (4 times)

            In exaple 2 you will hit jackpot plus 0+1 (4 times)

            Or are you headed some where else with this?

            "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

              JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

              United States
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              July 13, 2004
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              Posted: February 28, 2008, 3:32 pm - IP Logged

              Hi,

                Maybe the best system should be judged on how you generate you picks. For me, I've put emphasis on predicting individual numbers rather than projecting combinations. Given the example above, I think it is noteworthy that example #2 has to win 9 times to equal one win in example one. Is example #2 nine times better?

                I'm just interested to see why some people think one betting method is smarter than the other.

              Thanks for everyones input.

              You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

              Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.