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Florida Derby - Sat. 3/29

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 9 years ago by MADDOG10.

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Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
FEMA Region V Camp #21
United States
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July 27, 2002
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Posted: March 29, 2008, 11:51 am - IP Logged

Florida Derby - Sat. 3/29

Gulfstream Park  -  9th Race

1 1/8 miles Grade 1 race on the dirt for 3 yo's, Purse $500K  

The track has a 62% early pace bias at this distance for the meet.  That's not real high but it's something to go on.  The best early speed in the race appears to be the favored #12 Big Brown (3/1) and # 7 B B Frank (20/1), followed by # 3 Da' Tara (20/1) and # 9 Hey Byrn (5/1).  These four should be in the top tier at 6 furlongs.  # 7 and # 3 should be losing speed around the final turn leaving Big Brown and Hey Byrn to battle it down the stretch.

I'm going with # 9 Hey Byrn (5/1) for several reasons:  He is the class of the race and has a late pace rating better than Big Brown.  Big Brown is coming out of the 12 post and no horse starting from the 11 or 12 post has won on this track since the 1 1/8 distance was reconfigured at the track.  Also Big Brown has been unchallenged on the lead so far.  Today there will be horses breathing down his neck.  Last but not least, I think Hey Byrn will be going off at a fairer price.

I see two scenarios:

1) Big Brown tiring from his wide run to gain the lead in the early stages leaving Hey Byrn a chance to catch him in the final strides and beat him by a length at the wire....or....

2) Big Brown wins another big race by 10 lengths and moves on to the Derby Winners Circle.

Either way it should be a good race.  Good luck to all players!

Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
    FEMA Region V Camp #21
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    Posted: March 29, 2008, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

    Mistake on the Purse.....$1 M not $500K...big difference.

    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
      FEMA Region V Camp #21
      United States
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      July 27, 2002
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      Posted: March 29, 2008, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

      Another mistake.....10th Race not 9th.  Sorry about that.  I hope my judgement is better than my posts!

      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
        FEMA Region V Camp #21
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        Posted: March 29, 2008, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

        Big Brown won a difficult race in good fashion.  This horse is on his way to the garland of roses on the first Saturday in May.  I haven't seen any horse race better or more effortlessly in his races approaching the Derby this year.  I'm thinking Triple Crown....he hasn't even been asked yet by jockey Kent Desmoreaux who is having the year of his career. 

        Congrats to Big Brown and his bettors. 

        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


          tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

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          Posted: March 29, 2008, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

          Did you see the race?...Is he that good??..

            MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
            Beautiful Florida
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            Posted: March 29, 2008, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

            I did, and He's that good....!

                                                         

                                                           "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
              FEMA Region V Camp #21
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              Posted: March 29, 2008, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

              I did, and He's that good....!

              Now it's getting exciting.  We've seen most of the prep races and of the bunch, this dude is the real deal.   He reminds me of Secretariat.  On to Louisville!

              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
                Beautiful Florida
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                Posted: March 29, 2008, 9:55 pm - IP Logged

                Now it's getting exciting.  We've seen most of the prep races and of the bunch, this dude is the real deal.   He reminds me of Secretariat.  On to Louisville!

                Couldn't agree more rick...!

                I also thought of Secretariat, when I saw how effortless he ran today,  I can only summize what he could do if he were asked. As long as he stays sound we'll have a triple crown winner this year....! 

                                                             

                                                               "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "