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At what level to you start to play MM or PB?

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 9 years ago by DC81.

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Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
Atlantic Mine, Michigan
United States
Member #416
June 23, 2002
1614 Posts
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Posted: May 4, 2008, 10:20 am - IP Logged

This is always an interesting question to ask.  With the odds has high as they are I do not start to play Mega Millions until the Cash option after taxes is 20% of the odds.  (Which is $35,000,000)  I am surprised that many people still buy tickets when it is down to like the minimum $12M jackpot.  Really the only smart way to play is to play when the Cash Option after taxes is more than the odds.  This does not happen that often.  In this cash the expected value of the ticket is more than the  $1 you pay.  I just seems like a waste to me to beat odds of 1 in 176,000,000 to win $4M after taxes.

Brad

    DC81's avatar - batman39
    MI
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    August 31, 2007
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    Posted: May 4, 2008, 11:17 am - IP Logged

    I've played the current MM a lot more than I have played in a while, probably started a little too early, but I too would normally wait until the cash option is around 30-35 million after an estimation of all the taxes. I wonder where it'll next hit... What are the odds of the same state hitting the sole JP two times in a row?

    You can't predict random.

      LottoAce's avatar - WWI Flying_Ace.gif
      N.C.
      United States
      Member #56005
      October 28, 2007
      806 Posts
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      Posted: May 4, 2008, 5:31 pm - IP Logged

      I play every draw...no matter what the pot size.

      the angle that I have always looked at it from; is 12 million will get me out of that ****hole job just as fast as 100+ million. sure I would'nt be able to live a superstar lifestyle but it would be enough for me and my personal life goals.

      note:....since the odds are the same on every drawing regardless of jackpot size, I am just as likely to win with the pot down to 12 million as if it is up to 100+ million.

      sure more people are likely to play when the pot is high, increasing my chances of splitting a giant pot....but...it does nothing to change my odds of winning a prize.

      so there you have it...

      "you can't win it you ain't in it!"

      thats my philosophy...

      "know your limitations, but excede your expectations"

        spy153's avatar - maren

        United States
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        December 15, 2005
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        Posted: May 4, 2008, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

        Powerball did it with KY.  Well, not in a row.  Someone (different people) hit the powerball jackpot twice in Ky  last year.  Once in September and once in December.  I thought the odds of one state hitting twice in a year would be pretty high.  But it happened. 

        Actually, I would be interested to see what Todd would have to say to your question.  He's been doing this a lot longer than me., and knows the answer to that one.

        voir-vous dans mes reves!Cool

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
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          March 24, 2001
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          Posted: May 4, 2008, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

          It's unlikely you're going to win the jackpot regardless of its amount if you only buy one or two tickets for each drawing.  Unless you would not accept any winnings less than the jackpot then the amount of the jackpot isn't likely to effect your winnings. 

          It only make sense to wait for the jackpot to reach a certain size if you plan to join a group and pool your money to buy a large amount of tickets.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

            United States
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            September 17, 2003
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            Posted: May 4, 2008, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

            I used to wait until it was close to $300M but due to so few pots getting that high I now get tickets around the $175M level.

              LottoAce's avatar - WWI Flying_Ace.gif
              N.C.
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              October 28, 2007
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              Posted: May 4, 2008, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

              It's unlikely you're going to win the jackpot regardless of its amount if you only buy one or two tickets for each drawing.  Unless you would not accept any winnings less than the jackpot then the amount of the jackpot isn't likely to effect your winnings. 

              It only make sense to wait for the jackpot to reach a certain size if you plan to join a group and pool your money to buy a large amount of tickets.

              "I would rather have half of something, than all of nothing"
              Gail Howard.

              I would rather split 12 million 4 ways, than wake up one morning and find that I had 4 and the ball! with the intentions of wheeling the rest of the numbers in a 48 string wheel like I did in 2001!

              if I was in a pool then, or someone would have spotted me the gas money to go to Va...my life would be totally different.

              take it from me...you can't win it, if you ain't in it!!

              I personally don't believe in true randomness. not even in lottery numbers. I have accurately forseen, predicted and cashed in on way too many patterns that the lottery numbers form, time and time again to be convinced otherwise.

              one never knows when these patterns will fall in just that right order in which you may be a winner.

              like I said before, "you can't win it, if you ain't in it" and your just as likely to hit for 12 million bucks as a 100 million.

              so, why not be in every draw?

              isn't 1, 2, 3, or 4 million enough? to set you up for the rest of your life?..because if it isn't, you better contact a darn good finacial planner.

              "when you snooze, you lose"

              these numbers will haunt me for the rest of my life.

              10-24-35-49-52-47

              don't make the same mistake I did. set a budget for lottery, no matter how small it is and, play every draw, regardless of the pot...expecially if you tract and pick your own numbers.

              btw...

              the big winner in Georgia a few months ago....only bought 2 tickets!..

              but he played those two tickets every draw!!!

              "know your limitations, but excede your expectations"

                tntea's avatar - Lottery-059.jpg

                United States
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                June 30, 2004
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                Posted: May 4, 2008, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                I play every draw... PB,  Lotto 5 TN,  and Lotto Plus TN

                 

                Same numbers in all of them...

                     OLD/Vtrac   Lottery Bible         Double Warnings      Thumbs Up TN F34/F44

                  rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                  Texas
                  United States
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                  October 23, 2007
                  5588 Posts
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                  Posted: May 5, 2008, 10:14 am - IP Logged

                  I play every draw...no matter what the pot size.

                  the angle that I have always looked at it from; is 12 million will get me out of that ****hole job just as fast as 100+ million. sure I would'nt be able to live a superstar lifestyle but it would be enough for me and my personal life goals.

                  note:....since the odds are the same on every drawing regardless of jackpot size, I am just as likely to win with the pot down to 12 million as if it is up to 100+ million.

                  sure more people are likely to play when the pot is high, increasing my chances of splitting a giant pot....but...it does nothing to change my odds of winning a prize.

                  so there you have it...

                  "you can't win it you ain't in it!"

                  thats my philosophy...

                  This is my philosophy. If I win 4M after taxes, I can live the rest of my life on just the interest without touching the principle. NO MORE DEALING WITH "WHEN IS MY SOFA COMING IN?????????"

                    ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                    Idaho
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                    November 21, 2007
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                    Posted: May 5, 2008, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

                    I play whenever I get the chance. I don't care what size the jackpot is.

                    "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                      Avatar
                      Talking Rock, GA
                      United States
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                      April 15, 2008
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                      Posted: May 5, 2008, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

                      I play on Fridays when the jackpot is $100 Million or more.

                      (Reason I rarely, if ever, play on Tuesdays......well......I'm just weird.  I just like to buy 'em on my Friday lotto run. Razz  -- Yeah, I've heard of the "advance play" or "multi-play" feature.....I just rarely use it.)

                      A Gold account on Lottery Post:  $4.95

                      A Millionaire Jumbo Bucks scratcher:  $20

                      Airfare and hotel in March 2007 to see The Price Is Right before Bob Barker retired:  $600-something

                      Winning something to get a trip to a district office:  Priceless Big Grin

                        LottoAce's avatar - WWI Flying_Ace.gif
                        N.C.
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                        Posted: May 7, 2008, 6:14 am - IP Logged

                        I play whenever I get the chance. I don't care what size the jackpot is.

                        a woman not caring about size?...thats a first...

                        *evil grin*

                        "know your limitations, but excede your expectations"

                          DC81's avatar - batman39
                          MI
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                          August 31, 2007
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                          Posted: May 9, 2008, 1:11 am - IP Logged

                          I finally answered my own question by just looking at the record MM jackpots list on the Mega Millions site... Back in 2006 Ohio had back to back Mega Millions jackpot winners and there was only one winner for each. First one on 2/28/2006 for $270,000,000 and then again on 4/18/2006 someone won again for $265,000,000. I'm sure there's smaller jackpots that have had it happen too. So I guess it isn't unheard of.

                           

                           

                          EDIT: After looking at USAMega for a minute, make that three in a row because on 1/6/2006 another person from Ohio won $15,000,000 which then was followed by the two big Ohio winners.

                          You can't predict random.