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How Many Past Draws Do You Look At?

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 9 years ago by GHstudent.

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United States
Member #39194
May 12, 2006
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Posted: May 18, 2008, 2:38 am - IP Logged

Hi,

I was wondering if anyone knows if it would be better to look at all past draws of a lottery to try to determine numbers, or as a lot of programs do - only look at the past 50 draws or so?  I play the MA lottery which still uses balls, so I was trying to look at the last 50 & 100 draws (in case the balls change) but pretty much got the same results as the random control numbers I compared my picks to.  I do agree that the numbers come out randomly and that no system will ever pick them with much accuracy, but I like to dream that there might be such a system!?!

Thanks for any opinions!

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    NASHVILLE, TENN
    United States
    Member #33372
    February 20, 2006
    1044 Posts
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    Posted: May 18, 2008, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

    Hi,

    I was wondering if anyone knows if it would be better to look at all past draws of a lottery to try to determine numbers, or as a lot of programs do - only look at the past 50 draws or so?  I play the MA lottery which still uses balls, so I was trying to look at the last 50 & 100 draws (in case the balls change) but pretty much got the same results as the random control numbers I compared my picks to.  I do agree that the numbers come out randomly and that no system will ever pick them with much accuracy, but I like to dream that there might be such a system!?!

    Thanks for any opinions!

    I believe you need to ask yourself "What is it I am trying to accomplish?"

    When you know where you want to go, you will know how far back you should look.

    Are you playing the 6/46 game up there?

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
      United States
      Member #380
      June 5, 2002
      3102 Posts
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      Posted: May 20, 2008, 1:23 am - IP Logged

      Hi,

      I was wondering if anyone knows if it would be better to look at all past draws of a lottery to try to determine numbers, or as a lot of programs do - only look at the past 50 draws or so?  I play the MA lottery which still uses balls, so I was trying to look at the last 50 & 100 draws (in case the balls change) but pretty much got the same results as the random control numbers I compared my picks to.  I do agree that the numbers come out randomly and that no system will ever pick them with much accuracy, but I like to dream that there might be such a system!?!

      Thanks for any opinions!

      Never look further back then the last time the game was changed or the last time the ball set collection was destroyed and replaced with new.

      Call your lottery, email if they don't accept calls, ask when the ball sets were last destroyed and how long they are good for.

      Ideal is when you have a year or two of data since the last replacement and another year or two to go before the next. 

      If they tell you the ball sets were replaced last week, they are pretending to not understand the question and are giving you ball set rotation instead, keep trying until you get the information you need.

      Looking back 50 draws is a fair average for casual software users.

      BobP

        benmas's avatar - waveform
        Rhode Island
        United States
        Member #56010
        October 28, 2007
        434 Posts
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        Posted: May 20, 2008, 1:41 am - IP Logged

        Never look further back then the last time the game was changed or the last time the ball set collection was destroyed and replaced with new.

        Call your lottery, email if they don't accept calls, ask when the ball sets were last destroyed and how long they are good for.

        Ideal is when you have a year or two of data since the last replacement and another year or two to go before the next. 

        If they tell you the ball sets were replaced last week, they are pretending to not understand the question and are giving you ball set rotation instead, keep trying until you get the information you need.

        Looking back 50 draws is a fair average for casual software users.

        BobP

        i agree with Bobp's reply ...the reason you don't look back since the last time the game format was changed is because it was a different game with different odds and the probabilities are different (for example powerball was a 5/53 before 8/28/2005)...also in PA cash 5 was 5/39 before 2/1/08 now it is 5/43.... they are now different games.....

        as far as the ball set rotation, ok it is somewhat important but not as much i think because they manufacture the balls to very close weight and size tolerances anyway...but it could be an inconsistency in the compound in a set or other problems so for sure it is nice to have to deal with one set rather than different ones...for powerball there is a history page they have in website and also a sheet were they show the pretest result together with ball set used...other lotteries may have similar info in their websites...but i don't think a clear advantage can be obtained from this anyway...but you know 50 draws is about as far as i'd go too but i usually go only 10 in order to keep it simple

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          Posted: May 20, 2008, 2:03 am - IP Logged

          Thanks for all the replies!  I spend most of my budget on the 5/35 game and on the 6/42 only when the jackpot is large enough where I can justify going from 1/324,632 odds to 1/5,245,786.  Although the odds on the pick 5 seem good compared to the pick 6, the most I've gotten on the pick-5 is 4/5 a few times...still waiting on the 5/5.  Smile

          I'm going to try to weasle the info out of the lottery on when/how often they change the balls, but benmas has a point that the balls are manufactured to close specs so there might not be much of a difference between the sets.  I've tried backtesting using different number of past histories but still haven't found that magic number for either lottery I play that gives even a hint of a consistent result!

          Back to the drawing board and searching for that elusive formula...

            Idesire$'s avatar - Lottery-025.jpg
            Ellenwood,Georgia
            United States
            Member #60512
            April 21, 2008
            471 Posts
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            Posted: May 20, 2008, 3:46 am - IP Logged

            Hi,

            I was wondering if anyone knows if it would be better to look at all past draws of a lottery to try to determine numbers, or as a lot of programs do - only look at the past 50 draws or so?  I play the MA lottery which still uses balls, so I was trying to look at the last 50 & 100 draws (in case the balls change) but pretty much got the same results as the random control numbers I compared my picks to.  I do agree that the numbers come out randomly and that no system will ever pick them with much accuracy, but I like to dream that there might be such a system!?!

            Thanks for any opinions!

            I like to call them patterns every game has a pattern , so no matter what  game you are playing look at the pattern. Try to see what numbers may have feel on that date or before that date as well as after. You will find many patterns when numbers only go in a circle.Smile

              BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
              Dump Water Florida
              United States
              Member #380
              June 5, 2002
              3102 Posts
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              Posted: May 21, 2008, 1:06 am - IP Logged

              Thanks for all the replies!  I spend most of my budget on the 5/35 game and on the 6/42 only when the jackpot is large enough where I can justify going from 1/324,632 odds to 1/5,245,786.  Although the odds on the pick 5 seem good compared to the pick 6, the most I've gotten on the pick-5 is 4/5 a few times...still waiting on the 5/5.  Smile

              I'm going to try to weasle the info out of the lottery on when/how often they change the balls, but benmas has a point that the balls are manufactured to close specs so there might not be much of a difference between the sets.  I've tried backtesting using different number of past histories but still haven't found that magic number for either lottery I play that gives even a hint of a consistent result!

              Back to the drawing board and searching for that elusive formula...

              Think about this for a minute. What if we bought 15 cans of tennis
              balls for 35 balls in total, and we quickly open the cans and number
              the balls 01-35, put them all on a shelf ten feet above the floor and
              with a measure line five feet above the floor, with video camera
              rolling we let the balls fall and see how high they bounce.  Do you
              think they will all bounce to the same height? 

              If we did the same with a new set of 35 balls, do you think the ones
              with the same numbers will bounce the same height as those with
              that number from the previous set?

              What if we test the two sets of balls a month later, won't some balls
              that were good bouncers when fresh have gone dead after being
              out of the pressurized can for  a month? 

              The department of weights and measures or lotto security tests the
              balls for tampering, size and weight, but not bounce or internal
              pressure.  Maybe just maybe some balls are manufactured on a hot
              day with high humidity and some on a cool dry day, effecting their
              performance.  Maybe some have leaked pressure that was in there
              when manufactured and some still have the original pressure.

              With colored balls, that's a different dye lot for each color, different amount of dye in the plastic mixes. Something to think about.

              If your game still uses balls, it is best to work with data from the
              current set. Mixing in data from the previous sets only makes things
              worse.  BobP

                MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

                Norway
                Member #9517
                December 10, 2004
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                Posted: May 21, 2008, 3:27 am - IP Logged

                I only use the last 15 draws, with OK results.

                  ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                  Idaho
                  United States
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                  November 21, 2007
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                  Posted: May 22, 2008, 2:27 am - IP Logged

                  It depends on the game I am playing, but I like to look back 5 to 10 draws. But I'm beginning to think I should just buy quick picks instead. lol.

                  "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                    BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                    Dump Water Florida
                    United States
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                    June 5, 2002
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                    Posted: May 22, 2008, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

                    It depends on the game I am playing, but I like to look back 5 to 10 draws. But I'm beginning to think I should just buy quick picks instead. lol.

                    Before you abandon the last 5 to 10 draws look to see if anything
                    interesting is happening in them you might have overlooked such
                    as numbers that were drawn two or more times in the last 5 or 10
                    or even 15, turning up in the next draw often enough to be useful.
                    If not, don't be surprised, just that every game is different so what
                    works on one side of the state line might not work on the other and
                    vice versa.

                    BobP


                      United States
                      Member #59167
                      March 8, 2008
                      174 Posts
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                      Posted: May 22, 2008, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

                      Has a lottery machine ever looked back?  Does a bouncing ball care how many times a similar ball dropped through the chute? Do little plastic round things evaluate time and distance?

                      Follow the example of R-E-A-L winners, not wanna be winner.  Get a quick pick on the way to buying a loaf of bread and half-gallon of milk.  You can increase your odds by having your IQ lowered.  No certified genius has ever won a lottery.  The last person who won a lottery with a system was ....... Hummm, never was one in the history of mankind!  Strange how that happens.

                        benmas's avatar - waveform
                        Rhode Island
                        United States
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                        October 28, 2007
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                        Posted: May 22, 2008, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

                        the above post is rght, but people look at past draws to get more a "feel" of the game rather than to come up with a formula that will pick the winning numbers..i dont think it hurts to look at past draws ...you are right about play few dollars, thats the real key, because many people go overboard "spend $100 per draw, wheel numbers, Etc"  

                          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                          Idaho
                          United States
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                          November 21, 2007
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                          Posted: May 22, 2008, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

                          Before you abandon the last 5 to 10 draws look to see if anything
                          interesting is happening in them you might have overlooked such
                          as numbers that were drawn two or more times in the last 5 or 10
                          or even 15, turning up in the next draw often enough to be useful.
                          If not, don't be surprised, just that every game is different so what
                          works on one side of the state line might not work on the other and
                          vice versa.

                          BobP

                          Oh I agree. It just seems that when playing jackpot games (not pick 3/pick 4) that quick picks seem to be a better way of doing it then trying to analyze the numbers or even sticking with a certain set of numbers seems to work better.

                          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                            colthmn's avatar - Lottery-028.jpg
                            Inglewood
                            United States
                            Member #41769
                            June 22, 2006
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                            Posted: May 22, 2008, 5:10 pm - IP Logged

                            Well, when I look at some of the "Stat Charts" posted on this site, it at least appears that some of the folks here are doing pretty good, if of course these stats can be relied upon. I appreciate those few knowledgeable people who come out and offer their thoughts on issues concerning various games, what they do offer is free, and it's from their hearts. Not everyone is willing to give so freely!

                              GHstudent's avatar - dancer

                              United States
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                              June 7, 2007
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                              Posted: May 23, 2008, 12:49 am - IP Logged

                              from 5 to 10 games for hot numbers