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Combinations & % Error Challenge

Topic closed. 45 replies. Last post 8 years ago by RJOh.

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JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

United States
Member #5599
July 13, 2004
1185 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 5, 2008, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

   I thought this was very good input

from Starprose for Mega Millions. I haven't

had the time to figure out how many

combinations he is eliminating under

each heading yet.

Filter Name 

From 

To 

Number of Draws 

Percentage 

Last Digit Check 

50 

100 % 

First Digit Check 

42 

84 % 

Same Digit Check 

50 

100 % 

Prior Number Check 

49 

98 % 

Prime Number Check 

48 

96 % 

Odd Check 

48 

96 % 

Sum Check 

50 

150 

0 % 

Multiple Check 

49 

98 % 

Consecutive Check 

50 

100 % 

Even Consecutive Check 

45 

90 % 

Odd Consecutive Check 

49 

98 % 

Hot Number Check 

41 

82 % 

Divisors Sum Check 

19 

99 

19 

38 % 

Prior Divisors Check 

49 

98 % 

Same Divisors Check 

43 

86 % 

Past Divisors Check 

10 

46 

92 % 

Distance Check 

15 

35 

21 

42 % 

Prior Distance Check 

50 

100 % 

Same Distance Check 

50 

100 % 

AC Value Check 

47 

94 % 

Past Distance Check 

43 

86 % 

Same Position Check 

37 

74 % 

Position Sum Check 

21 

49 

98 % 

Ranges Check 

50 

100 % 

Digital Root Sum Check 

13 

31 

46 

92 % 

Prior Digital Root Check 

47 

94 % 

Same Digital Root Check 

49 

98 % 

Lucky Number Check 

50 

100 % 

Low Number Check 

47 

94 % 

High Number Check 

47 

94 % 

Small Number Check 

44 

88 % 

Middle Number Check 

49 

98 % 

Large Number Check 

44 

88 % 

Past Sum Check 

10 

6 % 

Last Digit Sum Check 

13 

38 

48 

96 % 

012 Type Check 

44 

88 % 

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

    United States
    Member #5599
    July 13, 2004
    1185 Posts
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    Posted: June 5, 2008, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

     Hi,

      Below are addition filtering methods available in commercial software packages. Quite a few of the following methods have been recycled constantly here at the LP ever since I joined. That is why my thinking is that there should be some standardized measure (ie- amount of combinations being reduce versus the amount of error being incurred.

    Any thoughts?

    Lottery Filter

    Consecutives -  A filter that eliminate combinations with N consecutive numbers. For example, the combination 21,22,23,30,33,42 has 3 consecutive numbers - 21,22,23.

    Evens - A filter that eliminate combinations with N even numbers. For example, the combination 20,22,24,26,33,43 has 4 even numbers - 20,22,24,26.

    Odds- A filter that eliminate combinations with N odd numbers.
    For example, the combination 1,3,11,19,30,40 has 4 odd numbers - 1,3,11,19.

    Space - A filter that eliminate combinations with N equally spaced numbers. For example, the combination 5,10,15,20,23,28 has 4 equally spaced numbers - 5,10,15,20.

    Span ( narrow ) - A filter that eliminate combinations with a span of N or lower. For example, the combination 1,2,5,9,11,14 has a span of 14-1=13. There for applying a filter of Span ( narrow ) of 13.

    Span ( wide ) - A filter that eliminate combinations with a span of N or higher. For example, the combination 1,2,5,9,11,14 has a span of 14-1=13.

    Sums ( low ) - A filter that eliminate combinations with a sum of N or lower. For example, the combination 1,2,5,9,11,14 has a sum of 1+2+5+9+11+14=42.

    Sums ( high ) - A filter that eliminate combinations with a sum of N or higher. For example, the combination 1,2,5,9,11,14 has a span of 1+2+5+9+11+14=42.

    Repeats - Use this filter to eliminate combination that contain numbers, which already came up in history draws.

    Filter  Type

    How  it  Works

    Sums

    In each combination, your numbers add together and make a Sum. Your game's winning numbers do too. You can keep combinations that are close to the winners -- or, use any Sums range you like.

    Sums History

    After you choose the range of Sums you want to keep, you can filter them further. You can choose a range of recent draws, and eliminate combinations with Sums that have just recently been drawn.

    Even/Odd Sums

    To further reduce your wheeling cost, you can easily spot trending and overdue Sums. You can keep only the Even Sums or Odd Sums -- effectively reducing your wheeling cost by nearly half.

    Roots

    A 'Root' is simply the 'sum of the Sum's digits'. For example, the Sum 150 has a Root of 6 (1+5+0=6). You see trending and overdue Roots. One click further reduces your wheeling cost by Root filtering.

    Even/Odd Roots

    You see trending in Even and Odd Roots. One click further reduces your wheeling cost by nearly half.

    Even/Odd Numbers

    In most draws, the winning numbers approach an equal balance between Even and Odd numbers. You can use Even/Odd filtering to set your wheeled combinations to be similar to your game's winners.

    Low/High Numbers

    You can see your game's field as having two parts: Low numbers, and High numbers. Most winners approach an equal balance in these numbers. You can filter your wheeled combinations for this balance.

    Matching Final Digits

    An example of some matching final digits would be: 1 11 21 31 41. Most winning draws have only a very few final digits that match. You can keep combinations that are closest to your game's winners.

    Individual Final Digits

    In addition to filtering for total matches in the Final Digits, you can filter for each individual digit (0-9). You can customize combinations to keep a desired amount of each digit.

    Consecutive Numbers

    An example of some consecutive numbers would be: 9 10 11 12 13. Most winning draws contain only a very few consecutive numbers. You can keep combinations that are closest to your game's winners.

    Decades

    An example of some numbers in the same decade would be: 20 23 24 27 29. Most winning draws have only a very few numbers in the same decade. You can keep combinations that are closest to your game's winners.

    Spacing of Numbers

    An example of equally spaced numbers would be: 7 14 21 28 35. Most winning draws have only very few numbers with equal spacing. You can keep combinations that are closest to your game's winners.

    Positional Limits

    A Pick-6 game has six positions -- a Pick-5 game has five positions, and so on. Most winning numbers fit within 'minimum-maximum' limits for each position. You can set these limits for each position.

    Movement of Numbers

    Your game's winning numbers 'move' higher or lower than the numbers in the previous draw. You can see these winning ranges in your game. Then, set 'minimum-maximum' limits in your wheeling.

    Adjoining Numbers

    An 'adjoining' number is one that is exactly 'one higher' or 'one lower' than the previous draw's winning number, in the same position. Only a few such numbers tend to win, and you can filter for them.

    Repeats:
    Last Draw

    Most often, the game's winning numbers include only a very few numbers that were winners also in the previous draw. You can filter your wheeled combinations for 'repeats', with one mouse click.

    Repeats:
    Last 20 Draws

    You can filter your combinations for repeat numbers from each of the last 20 draws. For example, if a combination has a set of 4 numbers that already won together 6 draws ago, you can eliminate it. You can do this on a step-by-step, draw-by-draw basis, automatically, with simple mouse clicks.

    Repeats:
    Any Range of Draws

    Specify a filtering limit, and specify any range of draws. Your program rejects combinations with sets of numbers that were already drawn together. It's fast, easy, completely automatic -- and lowers your wheeling cost.

     

    1.      frequency, consistency,

    2.      repeating, repeating vs. nonrepeating,

    3.      proportions of numbers: high, low, odd, even,

    4.      sums of winning combinations,

    5.      skip draws, sums of skip draws,

    6.      pair tables,

    7.      unofficial results from the last 84 draws,

    8.      hot, due, overdue numbers,

    9.      hot trail, consistency #2,

    Consecutive Filter - filters out lines with more than two or three consecutive numbers
    Sum of Line Filter - filters out lines where the sum of all the numbers is over (or under) a certain number
    Last Digit Filter - filters out lines according to their last digit
    Width of Line Filter - filters lines according to the difference between the lowest/highest number in each line
    Odd/Even - filters out lines with more/less odd numbers than even

     

    • Sum [Total, Odd, Even, Small, Big, Congruence, Digit, Root]
    • Sum Odd/Even Patterns [Total, Odd, Small, Big, Congruence, Digit, Root]
    • Mass [Odd, Small, Alternation O/E, Common,Dif. Digits]
    • First digit [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] [Jackpot games]
    • Last digit [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
    • Overall digits [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] [Equal to Last digit in Pick games]
    • Difference [all possible differences]
    • Consecutive [all possible consecutive ranges]
    • Number position
    • Pattern Odd/Even
    • Pattern Low/High [Pick games only]
    • Linear symmetry [all numbers in field]
    • In/Out [all possible layouts]
    • Middle-transverse/Out [all possible layouts]
    • Horizontal overlap [all possible layouts]
    • Vertical overlap [all possible layouts]
    • Overall rows [all possible layouts]
    • Overall columns [all possible layouts]
    • [S] - congruence [all shapes ranging from 3 - 9]
    • Congruence [9] / [8] / [7] / [6] / [5] / [4] / [3]
    • First Digit
    • Last digit
    • Overall digits
    • Difference
    • Consecutive
    • Linear symmetry
    • In/Out
    • Middle-Transverse/Out
    • Horizontal overlap
    • Vertical Overlap
    • Overall rows
    • Overall columns
    • Congruence [3-9]

    You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

    Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
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      Posted: June 5, 2008, 7:14 pm - IP Logged

      Unless you narrow the parameters of each filters, most of the combinations you generate will pass through and narrowing them down and running previous winners will eliminate most of them.

      I try to set filter parameters so that 70% of the previous winners would have passed and once a combination is accepted, it is used to block other combinations that passed the filters but match three or more of the numbers in one of the combinations already accepted and I record them in a reject file.

      While I have never eliminated a big winner because I have never generated a big winner, I have rejected some combinations that would have matched 3 or 4.  My reject files usually contain 500 or more combinations and my play file usually have 10-20 combinations.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        time*treat's avatar - radar

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        Posted: June 5, 2008, 9:19 pm - IP Logged

        @RJOh, have you ever changed the order the combos are filtered in? Wink

        I wrote in another thread, the p5 is very sensitive to the initial conditions. You can have the big winner in your list but if it's "too far down the list", you run out of budget before you get to it. Which (besides being very annoying) makes a very big difference in the profit/loss column.

        @JKING, yes, the % of combos removed by those various filters can be calculated easily enough. You may find the totals to be disappointingly small, though. e.g. "consecutives" http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/173783/1017708

        They make good filters because they don't provide very big targets.

        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
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          Posted: June 5, 2008, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

          @RJOh, have you ever changed the order the combos are filtered in? Wink

          I don't generate a bunch of combinations to be filtered later, so it makes no different.   I filter the combinations as they are generated and once a combination is accepted, it blocks any other similar combinations.  For example if the combination 1 2 3 4 5 makes it by the filter and is accepted then any other combinations with three or more of those numbers are rejected.  So a combination like 2 4 5 9 10 would be rejected and if the winning combination turns out to be 5 9 10 13 15 which was never generated, the chance to have matched 3 is in the reject file.

          Unless at least 50% of the possible combinations are generated then the chances of generating a combinations with all the winning numbers are remote with my system.  The chances of generation a combination that could win one of the lower tier prize are better but if the total numbers of combinations accepted to play is limited to 20 or less then there's a good chance such combinations will be rejected too.

          I could open up the parameters of the filters to accept more similar combinations but the limit of 20 combinations would be reached faster with no guarantee of a better results and I'm not interested in playing more than 20 lines.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            time*treat's avatar - radar

            United States
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            Posted: June 6, 2008, 6:12 pm - IP Logged

            @JKING: Are you working your system on paper or by code? That will make a big difference in how sophisticated you can work these filters.

            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
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              March 24, 2001
              19830 Posts
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              Posted: June 6, 2008, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

              My system uses a RNG to pick numbers which are compared with previous drawings before being checked using the filters parameters since I'm trying to avoid using combinations that have already won.

              I recently added a feature that stops the program when ever it picks a combination that has all the winning numbers of a previous drawing and the program seldom stops.  This tells me that the odds of picking a winning combination to filter out is the same as picking a winning combination without filters, all filtering is going do is allow you to eliminate those combinations that you don't think look like a winner.  The odds of picking a winner will not change.

              I tested this theory by using the LP RNG to pick some lines to post on the prediction page and they did a well as any I had picked using my program.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                Posted: June 7, 2008, 10:49 am - IP Logged

                @RJOh, have you ever changed the order the combos are filtered in? Wink

                I wrote in another thread, the p5 is very sensitive to the initial conditions. You can have the big winner in your list but if it's "too far down the list", you run out of budget before you get to it. Which (besides being very annoying) makes a very big difference in the profit/loss column.

                @JKING, yes, the % of combos removed by those various filters can be calculated easily enough. You may find the totals to be disappointingly small, though. e.g. "consecutives" http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/173783/1017708

                They make good filters because they don't provide very big targets.

                Hi,

                 Yes time*treat, I write code.

                 The point of calculating the combinations for each filter type is to select the best combination of filters. Basically getting the "Biggest Bang For Your Buck". That would be reducing the most combinations possible with the least amount of error. Sometimes I feel that I am the only one that understands that error is multiplicative. And that you can filter yourself out of winning anything if you don't pay attention to the amount of error in your system.

                  So, can anyone say that they are using the best combinations of filters possible without having a standard measure to compare one filter type against another?

                You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
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                  Posted: June 7, 2008, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

                  Getting the "Biggest Bang For Your Buck" depends on the game payouts too. I compared different games that I follow by calculating the amount I could expect to win if I played 10 lines during 100 drawings. For my calculations I used the winning numbers from the 10 previous drawings during the last 100 drawings.  I used these numbers because they were probably as random as any I could have picked.

                  OHIO CLASSIC LOTTO 6/49 TOTAL MATCHES

                                         MATCH  0 = 441     
                                         MATCH  1 = 388     
                                         MATCH  2 = 152     
                                         MATCH  3 = 18            $ 36
                                         MATCH  4 = 1             $ 70
                                         MATCH  5 = 0       
                                         MATCH  6 = 0               0 JP
                   
                              TOTAL PRIZES = $ 106 + 0 JACKPOTS
                       checked 100 records with 10 previous records = 1000


                  OHIO ROLLING CASH5 5/39 TOTAL MATCHES

                                         MATCH  0 = 481     
                                         MATCH  1 = 389     
                                         MATCH  2 = 112           $ 112
                                         MATCH  3 = 18            $ 180
                                         MATCH  4 = 0       
                                         MATCH  5 = 0               0 JP

                              TOTAL PRIZES = $ 292 + 0 JACKPOTS
                       checked 100 records with 10 previous records = 1000


                  MEGAMILLIONS 5/56+1/46  TOTAL MATCHES
                                                           BONUS#
                                         MATCH  0 = 631      15    $ 30
                                         MATCH  1 = 310      6     $ 18
                                         MATCH  2 = 53       2     $ 20
                                         MATCH  3 = 6        0     $ 42
                                         MATCH  4 = 0        0
                                         MATCH  5 = 0        0

                   
                              TOTAL PRIZES = $ 110 + 0 JACKPOTS
                       checked 100 records with 10 previous records = 1000


                  POWERBALL 5/55+1/42     TOTAL MATCHES
                                                           BONUS#
                                         MATCH  0 = 618      20    $ 60
                                         MATCH  1 = 319      6     $ 24
                                         MATCH  2 = 57       0
                                         MATCH  3 = 6        0     $ 42
                                         MATCH  4 = 0        0
                                         MATCH  5 = 0        0

                   
                              TOTAL PRIZES = $ 126 + 0 JACKPOTS
                       checked 100 records with 10 previous records = 1000


                  W. VA CASH25 6/25       TOTAL MATCHES

                                         MATCH  0 = 159     
                                         MATCH  1 = 399     
                                         MATCH  2 = 326     
                                         MATCH  3 = 101           $ 101
                                         MATCH  4 = 15            $ 150
                                         MATCH  5 = 0       
                                         MATCH  6 = 0       
                   
                              TOTAL PRIZES = $ 251 + 0 JACKPOTS
                       checked 100 records with 10 previous records = 1000

                  It appears the games with the lower potential jackpots give you more bangs for your bucks so if you going after the larger jackpots you've got to be willing to win less.  Winning a jackpot or 2nd prize is a random event that most hope to win but fail unless they get lucky.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    time*treat's avatar - radar

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                    Posted: June 7, 2008, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                    The way I "grade" some of my filters is to see how they perform based on number of drawings back. I can select a block size of N drawings-per-block and X number-of-blocks and then see the percentage of success over N *X drawings, in groups of N. That tells me if a filter is any good and for how long. The result is a simple chart with multiples of N in col 1 and a % in col 2. I can't say I have the "best" combination of filters, but for certain ones, I have a standard way of comparing their effectiveness.

                    As for a bigger bang - if a method generates the winner say 20% of the time, but only creates 10% of the combos - I'm giving it a closer look. Cool

                    In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                    Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: June 9, 2008, 11:02 am - IP Logged

                      The trouble with filtering is even winning combinations look bad until they win and once they've won they look bad again, in fact some players filter out past winners totally from their list of combinations to play.  Unless you can find some qualities or characteristics that are unique about combinations at the time they win, they're likely to be filtered out when it's their time to win.

                      These qualities or characteristics are most likely dynamic, constantly changing as the list of recent winners evolves but if 20% or more of the winners have them when they win then filtering could be made effective.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        Avatar
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                        Posted: June 9, 2008, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

                        The best way to avoid filtering out the winning combination is as easy as can be. Just don't filter any combinations that are random.

                          time*treat's avatar - radar

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                          Posted: June 10, 2008, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

                          Hi,

                             The Challnge is to reduce the most combinations with the least amount of error. The game type will be 5/39. Obviously, any lessons learned would be applicable to MegaMillions, Powerball, and CA Superlotto.

                             To kick things off, consider the following:

                             1) There are 575757 combinations in 5/39.

                             2) By eliminating 1 number, any number, there is a 1 in 39 percent chance that you are wrong ( 3%).

                             3) Assuming the one number you eliminated isn't picked, then you are playing a 5/38 game with 501942 combinations.

                             4) Therefore, 73815 combinations can be eliminated with only a 3% error,

                             All input, comments, and contributions are welcome.

                          Thanks.

                          These threads always seem to get a bit away from the original topic. Big Grin

                          To go back to the beginning, I find you can eliminate a block (pair or triple) of numbers with more confidence than any individual number ('tho' I follow a cold-numbers-stay-cold rule similar to the one described by GASMETERGUY). But, that may be just my preference. It's a bit more complex code-wise but it still reduces the total combos.

                          I think it depends on if you start with a blank canvas and try to fill in the winning combo within so many brush strokes -vs- starting with all the combos (like a big block of wood) and trying to chip away the losers to reveal the winner.

                          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
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                            Posted: June 14, 2008, 1:54 am - IP Logged

                            The best way to avoid filtering out the winning combination is as easy as can be. Just don't filter any combinations that are random.

                            That's like suggesting the best way to avoid the high price of gasoline is to park all your vehicles, even the lawn mower and garden tractor and start walking.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Long Island, NY
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                              Posted: June 14, 2008, 2:55 am - IP Logged

                              How many times have you eliminated/filtered a set of numbers; only to have them come in soon after?  Happened with last nights 5/39 draw for me(Thurs. draw).   I chose to delete this  combination I had played on Weds. the night before.    4 of 5 came in.  Not the first time or last.

                              My method includes putting as many numbers in play that you can..with the least expenditure.  I try to include most or all 39 in my nightly selections.

                              This is a very informative thread.  Data needs to be combined with other elements of thought regarding number selection.  Sometimes it's the data itself that points you down the wrong path.

                              You delete (the number 8 for example) to make it a 5/38 games and 8 is gone. It comes in your sunk.  How many times has "that" happened to you?