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How high could Powerball or MM get??

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Guru101.

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Thread Starter

United States
Member #26330
November 16, 2005
330 Posts
Posted: September 1, 2008, 10:33 am - IP Logged

I am not asking how high PB will go on this current run.  What I mean is,  theoretically how high could Powerball go before all combinations were bought and the jackpot would have to be won by someone?  I hear newscasters and others say almost all the combinations have been bought when the jackpot gets to 300+ million.  But obviously they are not as the jackpot has risen up to $365 million.    Anyone know....or care to guess.   

I would say $400 million before people would just buy so many tickets it couldn't go any further.

    DC81's avatar - batman39
    United States
    Member #54830
    August 31, 2007
    985 Posts
    Posted: September 1, 2008, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

    It just depends, even if there were $200,000,000 in tickets sold for one drawing it doesn't mean all the combinations are bought since there will probably be millions of combinations shared by multiple people though the odds of someone winning are very likely just because of how many tickets are out there. Just like you have a better chance of hitting something with a single round of buckshot than you do a single bullet. It'll probably hit but it doesn't mean every combination is bought. If someone is going to win though, it'll likely be more than one person.

    Last year, almost exactly a year ago (well a year and a day) when the jackpot got to 330 million there was "only" $137,151,667 in tickets sold for it but four people won. If it had rolled again it would have made it past 400M for sure and sales probably would have been twice that. Earlier in the year when it got to 390M, after the final totals as it was advertised at 370M, they sold $212,819,366 in tickets and two people won.   

    They all go until hit though the worse the odds are the easier it will be for it to go higher, just as Powerball will probably do and shatter the current record next year when the changes are in place and Florida joins.

    You can't predict random.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      20065 Posts
      Posted: September 1, 2008, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

      When the matrixs of both games changed the last time, there were claims of potential jackpots up to $500M but neither have come close to that amount yet.  PowerBall even put in special rules so that when the jackpot approached that amount the other prizes would increase too, but I think that rule has only been activated once.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   Evil Looking       

        United States
        Member #23835
        October 16, 2005
        3574 Posts
        Posted: September 1, 2008, 9:35 pm - IP Logged

        Theoretically the game could just keep rolling over forever and never have another jackpot winner. Once it reaches a previous record level PB  caps the increase at $25 million, but that increase will apply every drawing until there is a winner. For MM the increase will be based on actual ticket sales. It's possible that either game could go well past a billion.

        Anyone who says that "almost all the combinations have been bought" either doesn't really have a clue or has a funny idea of what "almost all" means.  As a practical matter, even with enormous sales (the current record is about 212 million for MM), about 1/3 of combinations will not be played. If combinations were played randomly (they aren't), once half of the combinations are played subsequent tickets would have only a 50% chance of resulting in an unplayed combination being selected. If 75% had already been played only 1 of 3 new tickets could be expected to have an unplayed combination. If 99% of combinations had been played only 1 of 100 subsequent tickets might result in playing one of the remaining combinations, so playing the last 1.5 million combinations  could be expected to require well over 150 million tickets. Even if an enormous jackpot results in a billion tickets being sold the chances that all combinations would get played are extremely small, and that means there's a chance of another rollover, even if it's a very slim chance.

          Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
          United States
          Member #48725
          January 7, 2007
          1958 Posts
          Posted: September 1, 2008, 9:55 pm - IP Logged

          After Florida joins and the odds increase, I expect Powerball to make it to $390M, at which point it will be won. Several months later, we will see the first $400M+ jackpot.

          Gonna win.Big Smile