The last Powerball drawing sold 34,493,168 tickets, a little less than the average for 14th draws in a rollover series, the average being 37,339,884.
The average sales for 15th drawings of Powerball in its current matrix have been 46,605,000. If the Powerball consortium sells this many tickets, the probability of various numbers of winners according to a Poisson distribution are as follows:
0 |
72.69% |
1 |
23.19% |
2 |
3.70% |
3 |
0.39% |
4 |
0.03% |
A mixed exponential linear model I developed makes the following predictions on the probability of jackpot rollovers:
Average Historical Annuity |
Calculated Annuity |
Calculated Cash Value Projections |
Single Draw Rollover Probability |
Overall Probability from baseline |
|
$553,531,850.50 |
$279,810,350 |
26.70% |
1.26% |
$353 |
$437,916,855.36 |
$221,366,970 |
36.97% |
4.71% |
$300 |
$350,814,733.53 |
$177,336,848 |
47.26% |
12.74% |
$245 |
$285,193,664.05 |
$144,165,397 |
56.85% |
26.96% |
$218 |
$235,756,007.79 |
$119,174,662 |
65.35% |
47.43% |
$196 |
$198,510,624.93 |
$100,347,121 |
72.58% |
72.58% |