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Probabilities of a Powerball rollover.

Topic closed. 1 reply. Last post 8 years ago by dvdiva.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: September 26, 2008, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

The last Powerball drawing sold 34,493,168 tickets, a little less than the average for 14th draws in a rollover series, the average being 37,339,884.

The average sales for 15th drawings of Powerball in its current matrix have been 46,605,000.   If the Powerball consortium sells this many tickets, the probability of various numbers of winners according to a Poisson distribution are as follows:

 

 

072.69%
123.19%
23.70%
30.39%
40.03%

 

A mixed exponential linear model I developed makes the following predictions on the probability of jackpot rollovers:

 

 

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline
$553,531,850.50$279,810,35026.70%1.26%
$353 $437,916,855.36$221,366,97036.97%4.71%
$300 $350,814,733.53$177,336,84847.26%12.74%
$245 $285,193,664.05$144,165,39756.85%26.96%
$218 $235,756,007.79$119,174,66265.35%47.43%
$196 $198,510,624.93$100,347,12172.58%72.58%
    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

    United States
    Member #2338
    September 17, 2003
    2063 Posts
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    Posted: September 27, 2008, 12:26 am - IP Logged

    Welcome back Prob988.