Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 3, 2016, 4:44 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

what are the odds

Topic closed. 27 replies. Last post 8 years ago by jr-va.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #67870
December 7, 2008
154 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 7, 2008, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

If I play random numbers on pick3, quick picks for example, for a $500 prize:

 

 

what are the odds if I pick 10 numbers to play day and night for 14 days? 1 in 3.57?

 

If I play 10#s the odds are 1:100 , correct? 

and then by letting the machine roll out 28 numbers against my set of 10 does that mean

divide 100/28=3.57   or 1 in 3.57 ?  (if my 10#'s are the same throughout the 2 week period)

    Shawn67's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

    United States
    Member #45970
    September 1, 2006
    4763 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 7, 2008, 4:58 pm - IP Logged

    If I play random numbers on pick3, quick picks for example, for a $500 prize:

     

     

    what are the odds if I pick 10 numbers to play day and night for 14 days? 1 in 3.57?

     

    If I play 10#s the odds are 1:100 , correct? 

    and then by letting the machine roll out 28 numbers against my set of 10 does that mean

    divide 100/28=3.57   or 1 in 3.57 ?  (if my 10#'s are the same throughout the 2 week period)

    In Pick-3, if you got 10 unique  combos, then yes, your odds would be 1:100 of having the winner. However, it has been my experience that QP's quite frequently give repeats, which increases your odds considerably. 

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19816 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: December 7, 2008, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

      There are only 10 different numbers(0-9) in a pick3 game which cover all 1000 possible combinations.  If you play 10 combinations then your chances of a straight hit are 10:1000 or 1:100.  If you're talking box hits, double or triple then the odds changes.  The odds are usually printed out on the back of the play slips and are available at the lottery websites.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #67870
        December 7, 2008
        154 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: December 7, 2008, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

        thanks, RJ and Shawn

         

        so yes, it is 1 in 100,

        but then if I keep those same ten numbers for 28 draws, should I have a 1 in 3.6 chance of winning the $500 exact ?   

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19816 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: December 7, 2008, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

          To win $500 in a pick3 game you have to hit a straight with a $1 ticket.  Playing 10 straights for 28 days cost $280 and you're more likely to spend more than $500 by the time you win that much unless you're lucky because your odds of winning (1:100) are the same every day, they don't improve as you lose unless you spend more.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Shawn67's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

            United States
            Member #45970
            September 1, 2006
            4763 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: December 7, 2008, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

            thanks, RJ and Shawn

             

            so yes, it is 1 in 100,

            but then if I keep those same ten numbers for 28 draws, should I have a 1 in 3.6 chance of winning the $500 exact ?   

            As each new day is a whole new draw, and since any number can be called each drawing, I understand that your chances would not change, they would still be 1:100 for each drawing.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19816 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: December 7, 2008, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

              jr-va,

              You are confusing the odds of winning a pick3 playing 1000 combinations at one time with the odds of winning playing 1000 combinations over a period of time.

              The difference is if you play all 1000 possible combinations at one time, you can only be wrong 999 times and one of your picks will be right  however if you play 10 combinations 100 times, you can be wrong all 1000 times.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                Avatar

                United States
                Member #67870
                December 7, 2008
                154 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 7, 2008, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

                I understand it involves a whole new drawing, but I still think the odds can be better by playing for 28 draws.  It is expensive, though.

                 

                I think the way I was thinking is better described if we turn the system around and ask

                What are the odds of having the lottery pick a number in my set of ten if I give them 28 tries?

                So, even if it is a whole new drawing, as long as I keep my 10 numbers the same throughout their 28 tries, the odds of having an exact match should still be about 1 in 31/2 by my calculations.

                What I'm trying to do is to start a system that is heavier on odds math.  In Virginia I recently bought too many doubles since they had not come up for so long and lately I have been having better luck with easy picks.  Well doubles finally came up this week, but I'm afraid to trust the frequency of doubles vs non-doubles again.

                Basically I guess this means just playing exacts which haven't come up in the last 100 or so drawings, have you all had much luck this way, or have you all tried it?

                  Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                  CT
                  United States
                  Member #61398
                  May 21, 2008
                  781 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 7, 2008, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

                  I understand it involves a whole new drawing, but I still think the odds can be better by playing for 28 draws.  It is expensive, though.

                   

                  I think the way I was thinking is better described if we turn the system around and ask

                  What are the odds of having the lottery pick a number in my set of ten if I give them 28 tries?

                  So, even if it is a whole new drawing, as long as I keep my 10 numbers the same throughout their 28 tries, the odds of having an exact match should still be about 1 in 31/2 by my calculations.

                  What I'm trying to do is to start a system that is heavier on odds math.  In Virginia I recently bought too many doubles since they had not come up for so long and lately I have been having better luck with easy picks.  Well doubles finally came up this week, but I'm afraid to trust the frequency of doubles vs non-doubles again.

                  Basically I guess this means just playing exacts which haven't come up in the last 100 or so drawings, have you all had much luck this way, or have you all tried it?

                  You can calculate your odds more easily by calculating how likely the lottery is to miss your numbers.

                  Multiplication rule of independent events

                  If you have 10 picks, the lotto has a 990/1000 chance of missing your numbers (99/100) each day for 28 days.

                  (99/100)^28 = .7547 (or 75.47%)

                  This leaves you at a 24.53% chance to win $500 over a 28 day period with 10 tickets for each day.

                  Long story short: $280 purchase with 24.53% chance to win $500.  Wouldn't take that myself personally. 

                    Dead_Aim's avatar - canstock2002989

                    United States
                    Member #6363
                    August 20, 2004
                    4051 Posts
                    Online
                    Posted: December 8, 2008, 9:46 am - IP Logged

                    Hi jr,

                    Maybe these will help you out. Choose form the left charts if you feel singles are due and from the right charts if you feel doubles are due. I think you will find these helpful. I use them for a week at a time.

                     

                    VA MIDVA MID
                    534538053584054533388055554844
                    058384034038084588344033800004
                    VA EVEVA EVE
                    198194319148318199944311118488
                    314948398394348144988399433338

                    Don't Chase... Compare and Narrow

                    The Cheaper the Cost the Higher the Profit

                    Many Winners to You.

                    D_A

                      Avatar

                      United States
                      Member #67870
                      December 7, 2008
                      154 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: December 8, 2008, 10:30 am - IP Logged

                      thank you all

                       

                      Stew12, thank you too, that is a handy way of calculating this.  Now, what if I started with 50 cents or even no money, and if I didn't have a match in 28 draws then play for a dollar, the probability would be awful close to 50/50 ?  (At the same cost, if I waited through a whole 28 days of failures before staking money ?)

                       

                      Dead aim thank you so much.  Did you filter these numbers? and how long have you used them, I ask because I noticed 584 (day) has hit, and 944,399 (eve) also hit, and 311 hit twice  (all in the second half of 2008).  Anyway, do you intend to keep all these that hit in the previous few months ?

                       

                      thank you everyone and good luck.

                        Dead_Aim's avatar - canstock2002989

                        United States
                        Member #6363
                        August 20, 2004
                        4051 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: December 8, 2008, 11:29 am - IP Logged

                        Jr,

                        That may be the very filter you need to eliminate the drawings you feel are less fit. It will narrow the playing field somewhat allowing you to focus more attention and money of other combos. Thumbs Up

                        This is a fresh set of numbers I put them together just before I posted them.

                        Don't Chase... Compare and Narrow

                        The Cheaper the Cost the Higher the Profit

                        Many Winners to You.

                        D_A

                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #67870
                          December 7, 2008
                          154 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: December 8, 2008, 12:49 pm - IP Logged

                          thanks, very well, I'm playing a few (day only)  till Wednesday.

                           

                          Thursday I'll re-examine.  For doubles I'm just playing various pairs.

                          As I stated earlier, I don't trust the double and single frequencies any more, Virginia just

                          had a long run of singles.  So with pairs I can partially cover doubles.

                           

                          Alright, well I'm taking my tickets now.  Thank you Dead aim.

                            Avatar

                            United States
                            Member #67870
                            December 7, 2008
                            154 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 8, 2008, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                            Ok, I'm playing 538, 053, 534, 384, 084, straight (exact)

                            and  84X, 03X, 0X3, X84  pairs.

                            Days thru Wednesday, Virginia.

                             

                            (I must note, though, with the new idea I had as stated earlier, I really need 10 numbers that I can keep the same for up to a month if not more.  So these don't necessarily count for that experiment.)

                              johnph77's avatar - avatar
                              CA
                              United States
                              Member #2987
                              December 10, 2003
                              832 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 8, 2008, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

                              If you're playing 10 games for 14 consecutive days on a straight-only ticket, your odds of winning are 140::1,000, or 1::7.14.

                              If you're playing the same way over 28 consecutive days, your odds of winning are 1::3.57.

                              If you're playing a box or straight/box ticket your odds will vary depending on whether your ticket has a double or not.

                              In any case your expected rate of return - i.e. payout percentage - is still the same, usually around 50%, depending on what the payouts are.

                              gl

                              j

                              Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                              Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                               =^.^=