|Posted: December 30, 2008, 2:42 am - IP Logged|
What does "rare occurrence" mean? The odds of getting 4 of 5 plus the mega ball in SLP is 1 in 197,221. Those odds are the same whether it's the chance of your ticket matching the winning numbers, or any individual one of the previous winning numbers matching it. The game has been around for more than 8 years, so there are roughly 850 past results. That makes the chances of a 4+0 match for any individual drawing about 850 in 197,221 or 1 in 232. The chances that 1 of the next 24 drawings will have another 4+0 match is 24 in 232, or about 1 in 10. Over the next year there's nearly a 50% chance of a repeat.
The odds of a 4+0 match in MM are about 1 in 3.9 million, or almost 20 times higher. Even factoring in a longer draw history (albeit with different matrices), a similar near miss is substantially less likely. Still, each drawing adds another combination that could possibly be matched, and each is another chance for a match. At some point the unlikely thing would be to not have a 4+0 match.