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Stop staying, 'Lower the odds'. It's the JACKPOT that matters!

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 8 years ago by TotallyDavis.

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TotallyDavis's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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Posted: January 7, 2009, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

What's the difference between 1:140,000,000 and 1:190,000,000?  Realistically?

Not much.  They are both still odds that require a miracle to hit.

 

But what's the difference between a 60 MILLION DOLLAR and a 170 MILLION DOLLAR jackpot?

Enormous.  All kinds of people come out of the woodwork to buy tickets once the jackpot breaks 100 MIL.  People buy multiple tickets that usually only play one ticket.  It gets crazy.

If the jackpot gets above 200 MILLION things get crazier still.  And if it gets above 300 MIL, the might as well close down entire cities.

That's what makes the money.  That's what grows the jackpots.

That's what the lottery gods want.

Look at it this way: What if there was a lottery that had a 1 in TEN BILLION chance to win, but the average jackpot was around SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS?  You'd play.  I know you would.  I would too.

Just like the regular lotteries, deep down we believe that when it's our time.... it won't matter what the odds are.

    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
    Wandering Aimlessly
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    Posted: January 7, 2009, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

    I do agree with the statement "require a miracle to hit." 

    But to me $60 million or $200 million is about the same.  I don't really want to win more than a million or two, so the main difference would be how much I'd have to give away.

      BuyLow's avatar - palm tree.jpg
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      Posted: January 7, 2009, 9:30 pm - IP Logged

      I do agree with the statement "require a miracle to hit." 

      But to me $60 million or $200 million is about the same.  I don't really want to win more than a million or two, so the main difference would be how much I'd have to give away.

      What's your thinking on not wanting 60 - 200 million?  Too much to worry about?  Not needed?  Too much responsibility?  Sun Smiley

        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
        Chief Bottle Washer
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        Posted: January 7, 2009, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

        <Moved to Jackpot Games forum>

        Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

          justxploring's avatar - villiarna
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          Posted: January 8, 2009, 12:09 am - IP Logged

          What's your thinking on not wanting 60 - 200 million?  Too much to worry about?  Not needed?  Too much responsibility?  Sun Smiley

          Not needed.  Who needs $105 million? 

            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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            Posted: January 8, 2009, 12:46 am - IP Logged

            Not needed.  Who needs $105 million? 

            You obviously aren't handling the government bailouts.

            I personally don't play Powerball until it breaks $300 million. Until prizes match their after tax cash prize they have to be very high for me to play.

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              Posted: January 8, 2009, 1:35 am - IP Logged

              Not needed.  Who needs $105 million? 

              Nobody needs it, but it's a question of what you could do with it. That $105 million they advertise is about (for me) $38 million after taxes. Right now, putting that in a safe investment might result in an annual after tax income of "only"  $660,000. I've got no use for extravagance, and even indulging in a goodly amount of travel I can't imagine actually spending more than 250 to 300k, but there are plenty of other things I'd like to be able to do.

              It wouldn't take an hour to think of charitable uses for the remaining 350 to 400k, but I'd also like to be able to share with friends and family. A lot of the travel, and most of the local activities I'd be interested in, are more fun with a few friends along. Given enough, I'd make sure that a few family members and at least  2 friends were also set for life, and I'd make sure that a few other friends could afford any of the trips I'd want them to join me on.

              That said,  I'd be extremely unlikely to buy a ticket for a game with odds so high that prizes of a billion were anything other than a once in a lifetime fluke. As is, if MM is in the 20 to 30 range and lotto is 10 to 20 I'll concentrate on that. An enormous prize would be nice, but even though all of the odds are  unrealistic, I'd rather take my chances on lower odds for enough to be very comfortably retired.

              FWIW, I'd guess that a jackpot with odds in the 1 in a billion range would mosty appeal to people with serious ego or self esteem issues, ala David Edwards. The only good thing I could say about that type of game, is that even some of the more infamous winners losers might not have had a hard time squandering a net of $250 million.

                ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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                Posted: January 8, 2009, 2:55 am - IP Logged

                "Stop staying, 'Lower the odds'.  It's the JACKPOT that matters!"

                To you that's all that matters. I would like to have decent odds, so I actually have a chance to win a jackpot. I'm one of those few people who don't care if the jackpot is 12 million or 300 million. I would love to win any size, but the more the odds go up, the less likely that will happen. Hey, if you don't care if the odds are so high you probably won't win anything, fine. But we all don't feel that way.

                "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                  TotallyDavis's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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                  Posted: January 8, 2009, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

                  It's not about what matters to me.

                  Powerball themselves have said that ticket sales explode once the jackpot gets way up high.

                  So it obviously matters to most people.

                  If it didn't, games with much better odds but much lower jackpots (like only a million or so) would be nationally famous, and not the 2 juggernauts that we have today with ridiculous odds and massive jackpots.

                    ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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                    Posted: January 8, 2009, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

                    Again, it matters to some people not everyone. We're not going to agree that the jackpot is the only thing that matters in a game. Some of us would like to have an actual chance at winning a jackpot, some us don't care if the odds are a billion to one. And really, I don't care what most people think. It's what I think that matters to me.

                    "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

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                      Posted: January 8, 2009, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

                      I see good points on both sides. 

                       

                       On one side, it is important to have big jackpots for the people who want to see them (not necessarily win them).  Under this form, the odds can get too high, though, that only a few people of the planet would win each year.  Personally I haven't played these games for more than $40 a year, most years just $20 or even none.

                       

                       On the other hand, I understand what people mean when bad odds are discussed.  The odds are definitely terrible all the way from the pairs games to the cash 5 games.  They could reasonably increase the payouts from $500 (P3) to $750, and to $7500 on the Pick4s and still make a lot of profit (and then tax on the profits).  By keeping the most unimaginably stringent low payouts, these games really do have terrible odds.  And their prizes subsequently have terrible fates as they are heavily taxed thereafter, before the winner gets the prize and then again as the prize makes it into the economy.

                        TotallyDavis's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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                        Posted: January 8, 2009, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

                        I know, the Pick 3 and 4 payouts are one of the things in the lottery that make my blood boil.

                        I would play a Pick-X game where the returns were 75%, but at 50%?  Forget that; that's the worst return out there.  Even the most worthless scratch offs have better odds than that.