United States Member #61296 May 17, 2008 187 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 2:25 am - IP Logged

Try filling out a college bball bracket. I have one loss already (Cal). Odds of getting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9 million trillion!!! You are 60 billion times more likely to win the powerball (at current 1 in about 195 million).

United States Member #61296 May 17, 2008 187 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 2:43 am - IP Logged

yes sir. And that is assuming that every team in the tourney has a fair chance of winning (i.e. uconn or pitt, etc. dont lose to the huge dogs) Even if every favorite won (assuming no upsets) the probbility is 72% that favorites would win every game, still netting you a 1 in 970 Million odds of a perfect bracket. Dont give up folks, the lottery looks like a coin flip compared to these odds!!!

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19824 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JONNIE on March 20, 2009

Try filling out a college bball bracket. I have one loss already (Cal). Odds of getting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9 million trillion!!! You are 60 billion times more likely to win the powerball (at current 1 in about 195 million).

You are saying there are 9 million trillions possible out comes which is hard for the average person with little or no math skills to believe. How did you figure those odds?

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #61296 May 17, 2008 187 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

There ae no sports bettors in here? In a college ball tounrament, there are 64 tams that compete in single elimination. That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64) If u take 0.5 times 0.5 by 63 times, you get about 1 in 2 to the power of 63, or one in 9 million trillion!!!!!! Assuming you pick favorites with no upsets it is still one in 124 billion to get a perfect bracket. All favorites with no upsets, assuming the favorite wins 72%of the time is still nearly one in a billion!!!!! By the way, I have 3 losses now, but Im still in the running.

United States Member #61296 May 17, 2008 187 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

Its never happened (a perfect bracket) and it NEVER will. Thats why they offer huge amounts of $$$$ to those who can actually do it. Ive heard $10 M dollars to anyone who can fill out a perfect bracket which is really weak at best. At these odds, it should pay out $100B to anyone who can do it!!!!!!!!

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19824 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JONNIE on March 20, 2009

There ae no sports bettors in here? In a college ball tounrament, there are 64 tams that compete in single elimination. That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64) If u take 0.5 times 0.5 by 63 times, you get about 1 in 2 to the power of 63, or one in 9 million trillion!!!!!! Assuming you pick favorites with no upsets it is still one in 124 billion to get a perfect bracket. All favorites with no upsets, assuming the favorite wins 72%of the time is still nearly one in a billion!!!!! By the way, I have 3 losses now, but Im still in the running.

That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64)

When you're talking about odds, statistical talk matters.

If you start out with 64 teams, you will have 32 possible outcomes 2nd round...... 32 teams will have 16 possible outcomes 3rd round.......16 teams will have 8 possible outcomes 4th round.......8 teams will have 4 possible outcomes 5th round.......4 teams will have 2 possible outcomes 6th and final round..2 teams will have 1 possible outcomes

Possible outcomes once you know the 64 teams in the tournament would be: 32 x 16 x 8 x 4 x 2 = 32,768 possible out comes that makes the odds of predicting the out come 1:32,768 the way I figure.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #61296 May 17, 2008 187 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

Rjoh-

There are a total of 63 games played, each with a 50% chance outcome. Trust me, look it up online. The actual number is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 or in in over 9 quintillion!!!!!

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19824 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2009, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JONNIE on March 20, 2009

Rjoh-

There are a total of 63 games played, each with a 50% chance outcome. Trust me, look it up online. The actual number is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 or in in over 9 quintillion!!!!!

"There are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible ways of filling out a 65-team bracket. That's 18.4 quintillion ... a number so large that even insurance companies weren't audacious enough to use it in their bailout requests."

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

"There are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible ways of filling out a 65-team bracket. That's 18.4 quintillion ... a number so large that even insurance companies weren't audacious enough to use it in their bailout requests."

Correct. JONNIE's original post omitted the play-in game between the 64 and 65 seeds. That effectively doubles the number of possible outcomes in his original post.

gl

j

Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there.....

Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7302 Posts Offline

Posted: March 21, 2009, 9:00 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on March 20, 2009

That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64)

When you're talking about odds, statistical talk matters.

If you start out with 64 teams, you will have 32 possible outcomes 2nd round...... 32 teams will have 16 possible outcomes 3rd round.......16 teams will have 8 possible outcomes 4th round.......8 teams will have 4 possible outcomes 5th round.......4 teams will have 2 possible outcomes 6th and final round..2 teams will have 1 possible outcomes

Possible outcomes once you know the 64 teams in the tournament would be: 32 x 16 x 8 x 4 x 2 = 32,768 possible out comes that makes the odds of predicting the out come 1:32,768 the way I figure.

While there are 32 possible winning times, there are still 64 different outcomes in the first round and each must be used with all the other outcomes. So shouldn't it be something like (64 * 63) times (32 * 31) times (16 * 15) times (8 * 7) times (4 * 3) times 2?

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19824 Posts Offline

Posted: March 21, 2009, 11:44 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on March 21, 2009

While there are 32 possible winning times, there are still 64 different outcomes in the first round and each must be used with all the other outcomes. So shouldn't it be something like (64 * 63) times (32 * 31) times (16 * 15) times (8 * 7) times (4 * 3) times 2?

From: Doctor Paul Subject: Re: NCAA tournament possibilities

First notice that the 64 teams play 63 total games: 32 games in the first round, 16 in the second round, 8 in the 3rd round, 4 in the regional finals, 2 in the final four, and then the national championship game.

32+16+8+4+2+1= 63

Now let's answer an easier question.

If there were four teams, and they played three games, how many different ways would there be to fill out a bracket? You can write them down. There are only eight of them. Where do that eight come from? Well, there are three games, and you have two possible choices for each game. Hence, 2^3 = 8 possibilities.

Now back to the real tournament. Since there are 63 games to be played, and you have two choices at each stage in your bracket, there are 2^63 different ways to fill out the bracket.

2^63 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

That's more than nine quintillion possibilities.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *