Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 5, 2016, 7:25 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

think the MM or PB has bad odds?

Topic closed. 16 replies. Last post 8 years ago by pumpi76.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #61296
May 17, 2008
187 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 20, 2009, 2:25 am - IP Logged

Try filling out a college bball bracket. I have one loss already (Cal). Odds of getting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9 million trillion!!! You are 60 billion times more likely to win the powerball (at current 1 in about 195 million). Cheers

    The Hitman's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
    Fayetteville Georgia
    United States
    Member #71666
    March 1, 2009
    4885 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: March 20, 2009, 2:35 am - IP Logged

    wow is that really so?

      Avatar

      United States
      Member #61296
      May 17, 2008
      187 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: March 20, 2009, 2:43 am - IP Logged

      yes sir. And that is assuming that every team in the tourney has a fair chance of winning (i.e. uconn or pitt, etc. dont lose to the huge dogs) Even if every favorite won (assuming no upsets) the probbility is 72% that favorites would win every game, still netting you a 1 in 970 Million odds of a perfect bracket. Dont give up folks, the lottery looks like a coin flip compared to these odds!!! Cheers

        diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
        Dallas, TX
        United States
        Member #60284
        April 12, 2008
        3856 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: March 20, 2009, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

        What is a bracket and how is it so high in odds?

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19824 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: March 20, 2009, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

          Try filling out a college bball bracket. I have one loss already (Cal). Odds of getting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9 million trillion!!! You are 60 billion times more likely to win the powerball (at current 1 in about 195 million). Cheers

          You are saying  there are 9 million trillions possible out comes which is hard for the average person with little or no math skills to believe.  How did you figure those odds?

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Avatar

            United States
            Member #61296
            May 17, 2008
            187 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: March 20, 2009, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

            There ae no sports bettors in here? In a college ball tounrament, there are 64 tams that compete in single elimination. That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64) If u take 0.5 times 0.5 by 63 times, you get about 1 in 2 to the power of 63, or one in 9 million trillion!!!!!! Assuming you pick favorites with no upsets it is still one in 124 billion to get a perfect bracket. All favorites with no upsets, assuming the favorite wins 72%of the time is still nearly one in a billion!!!!! By the way, I have 3 losses now, but Im still in the running. Crazy

              Avatar

              United States
              Member #61296
              May 17, 2008
              187 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: March 20, 2009, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

              Its never happened (a perfect bracket) and it NEVER will. Thats why they offer huge amounts of $$$$ to those who can actually do it. Ive heard $10 M dollars to anyone who can fill out a perfect bracket which is really weak at best. At these odds, it should pay out $100B to anyone who can do it!!!!!!!!

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19824 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: March 20, 2009, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                There ae no sports bettors in here? In a college ball tounrament, there are 64 tams that compete in single elimination. That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64) If u take 0.5 times 0.5 by 63 times, you get about 1 in 2 to the power of 63, or one in 9 million trillion!!!!!! Assuming you pick favorites with no upsets it is still one in 124 billion to get a perfect bracket. All favorites with no upsets, assuming the favorite wins 72%of the time is still nearly one in a billion!!!!! By the way, I have 3 losses now, but Im still in the running. Crazy

                That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64)

                When you're talking about odds, statistical talk matters.

                If you start out with 64 teams, you will have 32 possible outcomes
                2nd round...... 32 teams will have 16 possible outcomes
                3rd round.......16 teams will have 8 possible outcomes
                4th round.......8 teams will have 4 possible outcomes
                5th round.......4 teams will have 2 possible outcomes
                6th and final round..2 teams will have 1 possible outcomes

                Possible outcomes once you know the 64 teams in the tournament would be:
                32 x 16 x 8 x 4 x 2 = 32,768 possible out comes
                that makes the odds of predicting the out come 1:32,768 the way I figure.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Avatar

                  United States
                  Member #61296
                  May 17, 2008
                  187 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: March 20, 2009, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

                  Rjoh-

                   

                  There are a total of 63 games played, each with a 50% chance outcome. Trust me, look it up online. The actual number is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 or in in over 9 quintillion!!!!!

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19824 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: March 20, 2009, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

                    Rjoh-

                     

                    There are a total of 63 games played, each with a 50% chance outcome. Trust me, look it up online. The actual number is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 or in in over 9 quintillion!!!!!

                    I did at:

                    http://www.printyourbrackets.com/marchmadness.html

                    My calculations show 32+16+8+4+2+1=63 games being played.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
                      19824 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: March 20, 2009, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

                      I did at:

                      http://www.printyourbrackets.com/marchmadness.html

                      My calculations show 32+16+8+4+2+1=63 games being played.

                      According to the Los Angeles Times:Sports

                      http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/03/bracket-busted.html

                      "There are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible ways of filling out a 65-team bracket. That's 18.4 quintillion ... a number so large that even insurance companies weren't audacious enough to use it in their bailout requests."

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        johnph77's avatar - avatar
                        CA
                        United States
                        Member #2987
                        December 10, 2003
                        832 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: March 21, 2009, 8:31 am - IP Logged

                        According to the Los Angeles Times:Sports

                        http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/03/bracket-busted.html

                        "There are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible ways of filling out a 65-team bracket. That's 18.4 quintillion ... a number so large that even insurance companies weren't audacious enough to use it in their bailout requests."

                        Correct. JONNIE's original post omitted the play-in game between the 64 and 65 seeds. That effectively doubles the number of possible outcomes in his original post.

                        gl

                        j

                        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                         =^.^=

                          Avatar
                          Kentucky
                          United States
                          Member #32652
                          February 14, 2006
                          7302 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: March 21, 2009, 9:00 am - IP Logged

                          That alone means that 64! (forget the statistical talk 64)

                          When you're talking about odds, statistical talk matters.

                          If you start out with 64 teams, you will have 32 possible outcomes
                          2nd round...... 32 teams will have 16 possible outcomes
                          3rd round.......16 teams will have 8 possible outcomes
                          4th round.......8 teams will have 4 possible outcomes
                          5th round.......4 teams will have 2 possible outcomes
                          6th and final round..2 teams will have 1 possible outcomes

                          Possible outcomes once you know the 64 teams in the tournament would be:
                          32 x 16 x 8 x 4 x 2 = 32,768 possible out comes
                          that makes the odds of predicting the out come 1:32,768 the way I figure.

                          While there are 32 possible winning times, there are still 64 different outcomes in the first round and each must be used with all the other outcomes. So shouldn't  it be something like (64 * 63) times (32 * 31) times (16 * 15) times (8 * 7) times (4 * 3) times 2?

                            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                            Chief Bottle Washer
                            New Jersey
                            United States
                            Member #1
                            May 31, 2000
                            23260 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: March 21, 2009, 10:26 am - IP Logged

                            <Moved to Gaming forum>

                            Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              19824 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: March 21, 2009, 11:44 am - IP Logged

                              While there are 32 possible winning times, there are still 64 different outcomes in the first round and each must be used with all the other outcomes. So shouldn't  it be something like (64 * 63) times (32 * 31) times (16 * 15) times (8 * 7) times (4 * 3) times 2?

                              The following was in THE MATH FORUM - ASK DR.MATH
                              http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56223.html

                              From: Doctor Paul
                              Subject: Re: NCAA tournament possibilities

                              First notice that the 64 teams play 63 total games: 32 games in the
                              first round, 16 in the second round, 8 in the 3rd round, 4 in the
                              regional finals, 2 in the final four, and then the national
                              championship game.

                              32+16+8+4+2+1= 63

                              Now let's answer an easier question.

                              If there were four teams, and they played three games, how many
                              different ways would there be to fill out a bracket?  You can write
                              them down. There are only eight of them. Where do that eight come
                              from?  Well, there are three games, and you have two possible choices
                              for each game. Hence, 2^3 = 8 possibilities.

                              Now back to the real tournament. Since there are 63 games to be
                              played, and you have two choices at each stage in your bracket, there
                              are 2^63 different ways to fill out the bracket.

                              2^63 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

                              That's more than nine quintillion possibilities.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking