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Pick -3 Doubles// Expected for ALL midday and eve games .

Topic closed. 2 replies. Last post 8 years ago by WIN D.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 13, 2009, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

                                             There are 270 doubles in the 1000 number chart.

     That means that doubles will hit 27% of the time.

 

     There are 22 midday games and 37 Eve games ......a total of 59 games per day.

 

 

     That means there will be  22 x 27 % =5.94 doubles hit on the midday games. Average of 6 doubles per day.

     There are 37 eve.games   37 x 27% = 9.99 doubles hit on the eve games .  Average of 10 doubles per day. 

 

 On average there will be expected hits of around 16 doubles per day total for both the Midday and Eve draws per day.  

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
    United States
    Member #828
    November 2, 2002
    10491 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 14, 2009, 10:11 am - IP Logged

      Just as noted above the .....the  Expected average numbers of Doubles hits per day should average about 16 per day for both Mid and Eve draws for 59 games. 

    Yesterday there were 17 double hits.  So, Monday was right on the money. Ofcourse, that will drop off on the days that some states have no draw days during the week.

                         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

           Warning .... Don't confuse Box hits with Straight hits on the stats below.

                                     

           The following shows how many STRAIGHT hits we can expect .....playing x doubles each day.

     

     

       If you pick 10 box doubles out of a hat to play for all states each day you can expect this kind of results.

     

          To hit it in the same order played ...... straight ....not box. Box would give us 5 times more hits.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                               Expected Straight hits for ......... for the amount of doubles played

     

     1.   10 box doubles ....is actually 30 straight doubles .....or 3% of the 1000 chart .  We can expect to hit about 6% of the doubles that actually hit each day. 

       59 games per day .......should render 16 doubles on average per day.... so.....  16 x 3% = 0.48  str. wins

     

     2.  20 box doubles picked from a hat ....is actually 60 straight doubles per day....or 6%  of the 1000.

          59 games per day .....render 16 doubles per day.....so..... 16 x 6% = o.92 straight wins per day   

     3.  30 box doubles is 90 straight doubles or 9% of the 1000 chart .....should give us

                 59 per day...... 16 doubles per day......so ....16 x 9% = 1.44 straight wins per day.

    ..

         ** So.... play all 30 box doubles for each of the 59 games per day......and expect to get a straight hit in the same order we played them at that 1.44 rate each day.  Straight hits are..... TUFF !  LOL   

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
      Stone Mountain*Georgia
      United States
      Member #828
      November 2, 2002
      10491 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 14, 2009, 11:08 am - IP Logged

              It is a lot easier for a Box hit that's for sure ......  if .....59 people  play a game each day ....and each one plays all 30 doubles box.......thats 1,770 numbers played box.

       If we get the expected Math average hit rate for playing that many numbers each day.....we can count on 5 of those people to get a Box hit each day.....if they played all 30 boxes each.

       

             Of those 59 people that played their 30 box doubles .....1.44 of them will hit Straight that day !!  Cheers 

           

        The  Expected hit rate each day for the 59 people playing (1770 double numbers) will be approx......

                                                                                                                     5 Box winners each day

                                                                                                           ......   1.44 Straight wins each day

       

       

      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                             Win d